ValpoVike Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 The precip is going to be spread out over most of the week, and temps will be quite marginal. I think snow that does accumulate will melt fairly quickly, and especially down in the lower elevations there will be more mix and periods of straight rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Euro and GFS are night and day different with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 On 3/31/2021 at 6:08 PM, raindancewx said: Time frame to watch now is mid-April for a big system. Not sure if the position was right for the front range or west, but the 3/26 967 mb off Kamchatka should come through somewhere in the US as a major system. 3/26-3/27 +17 to 21 days....there it is. SOI crash was huge 4/7 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2021 Author Share Posted April 12, 2021 NWS-digital forecast has 1.5" - 3.3" of snow for the Front Range cities with some values less than 6" for the Palmer Divide, up until Friday 00z (Thursday night). The QPF is 0.45" up to 0.92". This means that my place will have marginal temps, rain/snow mix, or just rain for a long time. I guess might be the whole storm system, as it is getting into this short range forecast window. QPF for the mountains is 1.2" or more (12-16" of snow). WPC- 120 hour precip (going out to Saturday) shows that the mountains could get 20"-25" and major cities could get 0.7"-1.4" of QPF in some format. Oh man, if this were only colder, we would be having some major discussions about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 GFS may be wrong for late week snow, but you gotta give it credit for its consistency. Euro got a bit snowier overnight, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Looks pretty promising for snow over the next four days down here. Only need 1.3" in the city to make it the snowiest cold season since 2006-07. Doubt we'll get much if any accumulating snow though. Oct, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr snow at the airport would be six months with measurable snow. That's rare if it happens. Would be the the first cold season to see accumulating snow in six months since 1997-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 This storm seems to have been non-existent so far for me. There was a bit of snow on the grass, as it fell in the overnight hours, and I haven't noticed any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 14 Apr 2021 1010.16 1010.50 -19.69 0.22 5.46 13 Apr 2021 1009.79 1010.95 -25.60 0.83 5.90 12 Apr 2021 1011.26 1010.15 -9.23 1.60 6.45 11 Apr 2021 1012.90 1009.25 9.08 1.52 6.74 Need to watch the period around 4/22-4/24 for some kind of major system. It's been years since we've had 35+ drop in two days in the SOI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 It's been a steady nickel/dime event up here in Glen Haven. About 3" on Tuesday, and about the same amount again yesterday evening and night. The road surface melting in-between has been welcome...so bring on the moisture! I did have a hairy experience on the switchbacks north of Estes on CR43 where a layer of ice had formed under a layer of snow Tuesday evening, that was not fun at all as my Jeep nearly hit a guardrail despite crawling down at 5mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 My place was completely dry for 24 hours, and now we have some drizzle today. But I suppose then the "storm" might be in the future. Seemingly, this storm is always in the future. Quote ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Was supposed to be a high of 44 today. Didn't get past 34. Hopefully that bodes well for a quicker transition to accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 The rain and then snow basically started when I made my last post, and now the ground is getting white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 We have done pretty well this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 16, 2021 Author Share Posted April 16, 2021 My place has about 1" on the grass, most was in the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Chinook said: My place has about 1" on the grass, most was in the last 2 hours. Roughly the same here. Bone dry all week till this afternoon then about 1.5” snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 16, 2021 Author Share Posted April 16, 2021 My place has probably 1.5" on the ground (had some maybe 0.1" of rain before that) -- north areas may have gotten 1.5" to 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 I've got about 4" with radar still looking for for a couple more hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 Thurs-Saturday snow totals. My place got about 3" and 0.55" of the combination of rain and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 New snow storm incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 3.7" last night, 4" last week, season total now up to 83.7". Pretty sure this is a top 2 season for me since 2010. I think we can about stick a fork in this one, having begun 7 1/2 months ago. I kind of hope. Bring on hail season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said: 3.7" last night, 4" last week, season total now up to 83.7". Pretty sure this is a top 2 season for me since 2010. I think we can about stick a fork in this one, having begun 7 1/2 months ago. I kind of hope. Bring on hail season Maybe after tomorrow a fork can be put in with models pointing to a few inches on Wednesday. But the NWS says - Meh. Up here we have had a pretty good season, though I honestly have no idea how much total snowfall has occurred. We even picked up some surprisingly good snows on Labor Day and again in late October. March and April have been good to us as well. In between was underwhelming. I'm ready for snow season to end too, and also hoping that the Monsoon actually shows up this year. The lack of a real monsoon last year seems to me to be what drove the massive fires last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 21, 2021 Author Share Posted April 21, 2021 As for me, I measured 4.4" to 5.0" on Monday night. CoCoRAHS reports had roughly 4.0" and 0.40" of liquid equivalent. It was melting pretty quickly yesterday, even with temperatures in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 GFS seems to keep the party going until at least early next week. Long range has some fun stuff implied as well. Whatever can delay meltout/eat into this drought, I am all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 My place has gotten some light snow tonight. Fort Collins has been 13.4 degrees below average since 4/12. At the beginning of the month, the GEFS seemed to say that we were in for quite a few above normal days. So, days 10-15 of the GEFS were very wrong, as far as I can figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Today was like a lake effect snow day, cloudy and raw, with a good band with around 3 inches of snow just 7-8 miles north, but only flurries here. Not enough to measure at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 11:08 AM, ValpoVike said: I'm ready for snow season to end too, and also hoping that the Monsoon actually shows up this year. The lack of a real monsoon last year seems to me to be what drove the massive fires last year. Darn right. The dryness fed on itself last year with windy, somewhat hot days all through summer and dew points rivaling those on Mars. The early melt out didn't help, but things could have been mitigated by at least SOME wet thunderstorms... nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Well, at least some good news for portions of Larimer and Boulder counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 23, 2021 Author Share Posted April 23, 2021 Yes, Larimer County had 2-4 drought class improvements in the last 3 months, according to the change chart. Alright! How about this idea: let's not have some huge fire this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 It really comes down to the Monsoon. We were in great shape exiting snow season last year, but no monsoon. Raindance, do you happen to track analogs for the regional monsoon season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 GFS and Euro want to give one more blast of snow next week before calling it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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