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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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8 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

With the way most of the models are trending this morning, I think a shot at 45-48".  Especially north of town where elevations are about 8000'.

Right. Wentz, if you're still around Monday when roads should be clearer, and feel like exploring , take a drive north or south of Estes. You'll likely find snow that is 6-12 inches or more deeper than right in town. Peak to Peak (hwy 7) should be cleared pretty quickly, and goes up in elevation over 8000" within a few miles. You could even drive south to Boulder Canyon (119) and loop back toward the airport through Boulder.

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Here is a snippet from the BOU morning AFD:

Quote

Overall, snow totals were kept pretty much the same. With models
showing a southward trend, QPF forecasts have increased but the
QPF that falls will be mainly during the day today when there are
lower snow ratios. Impacts will remain the same with very
difficult to nearly impossible travel conditions today and tonight
in the Winter Storm Warning areas. All highlights were kept the
same.

I was curious if they'd bump up totals a bit after the 0z runs but it looks like they are sticking with what they've got.

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Tried everything in my Power to get there. Couldn’t get work coverage this am. This should be a fun one , look forward to following this 

Have been trying to look at trends related to H5 and how far N or NW that dry slot gets between 9z Sunday and 18z bc just NW of that looks like a special place . 

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12 minutes ago, MidlothianWX said:

FWIW, here are eyeballed 12z para GFS QPF totals:

Boulder: 3.3"
Denver: 3.0"
FoCo: 3.3"
Estes: 3.4"
Centennial: 3.1"

The para has been looking really weird for the past couple of runs.  For example, going from Boulder up to Nederland the QPF actually drops with elevation.  Generally a similar look up and down the front range.  Odd.  Maybe not as juicy column?

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20 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

The para has been looking really weird for the past couple of runs.  For example, going from Boulder up to Nederland the QPF actually drops with elevation.  Generally a similar look up and down the front range.  Odd.  Maybe not as juicy column?

I’m right at the Ridgeline Hotel. My elevation in this spot is like 7600. Should be an interesting one I don’t really know what to expect 

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Question. When you look at the 3km NAM for example it seems there’s a little snow hole over Estes. Do models handle the elevation here, should I consider a last second trip N a bit?

Estes is in a bowl shaped valley.  There are no hotels nearby in any direction, so you are probably as close as you can get without sleeping in a car :).  Sometimes that little bowl makes a small difference, sometimes no effect.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MidlothianWX said:

Also, it looks like Jim Cantore will be here in Boulder. This is the kiss of death, right?

Some day they should invent a snow stick that can be read from far away.  

 

12 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Question. When you look at the 3km NAM for example it seems there’s a little snow hole over Estes. Do models handle the elevation here, should I consider a last second trip N a bit?

 

66B0EF0F-C289-45E4-9062-A5775080DCCF.png

NAM 3km overdoes downsloping

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