n1vek Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: NAM doesn't seem overly impressed by the storm. Not to discount the NAM, but the surface low per the maps is just wonky practically sitting over Steamboat. (This is me wishcasting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 5 hours ago, ValpoVike said: It's still simply insane in southern Larimer with 9"+ around the Estes valley. I really don't know what to think, so many times do you see fantasy numbers but they almost always resolve over time. The GFS just seems to be going increasingly bonkers. Chinook, what does your met insight say? There's no way 9" will verify. The Canadian has 2.0" to 3.9" for central Larimer County, the Euro, 2.0" to 2.91", UKMET 2.0" to 3.86". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 0z GFS basically gives no precip at all, rain or snow, east of 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 euro wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: 0z GFS basically gives no precip at all, rain or snow, east of 25 GFS is on a spirit quest right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 well the canadian is looking better through 42.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 GFS Para is much more in line with other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Might be wise to ignore the operational GFS at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Eyeballing 0z QPF from Pivotal maps... GFS: Boulder: 3.7" Denver: 2.9" Estes: 5.2" CMC: Boulder: 3.5" Denver: 2.3" Estes: 4.0" UK: Boulder: 3.7" Denver: 3.4" Estes: 3.4" Euro (hi-res): Boulder: 2.1" Denver: 1.9" Estes: 1.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 10 hours ago, Wttnwx said: Hey guys, whats your thoughts on I-80 for Sunday? Should be by NE panhandle early afternoon. Headed to Medicine Bow west of Laramie. Exit 80 at Snowy Range rd Laramie. Good chance they will shut it down? I dont know much about the weather. I come here (usually midwest sub) to see what you guys have to say about snowfall amounts. Bonus question, thoughts on snowfall totals at 10K ft in Snowy Range/Medicine Bow? Thanks! I’ve been to Medicene Bow Peak many times. It’s absolutely beautiful up there. Mirror lake is so cool to see in Summer with snow all around the lake even in July or August. The overlook up there on 130 (Snowy Range Road) is awesome. As far as snowfall, models show 30”+ for the highest elevations of the Snowy Mts. It depends when you get there but I would definitley bet on 1-80 being shut down from Rawlins eastward at some point. What are you going to be doing up there at 10k feet if I may ask? Seems dangerous to me with a storm of this magnitude coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wttnwx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 42 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’ve been to Medicene Bow Peak many times. It’s absolutely beautiful up there. Mirror lake is so cool to see in Summer with snow all around the lake even in July or August. The overlook up there on 130 (Snowy Range Road) is awesome. As far as snowfall, models show 30”+ for the highest elevations of the Snowy Mts. It depends when you get there but I would definitley bet on 1-80 being shut down from Rawlins eastward at some point. What are you going to be doing up there at 10k feet if I may ask? Seems dangerous to me with a storm of this magnitude coming in. Snowmobiling. Yeah Im just trying to gauge how long its going to take us to get there. Yeah Ive been there its pretty cool. Anyway, thanks! I will stop clogging up the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Interesting note from the NWS AFD this morning: Quote To go more in-depth into the details, lee cyclogenesis will develop over northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado today through tomorrow. Easterly, upslope flow to the north of this cyclone will create low clouds which will keep temperatures on the cool side across the plains of Colorado. One bias that models typically have in these types of setups is to position the center of the surface cyclone too far north. Cold air damming to the east of the Rockies should keep the center of the surface cyclone towards the southern edge of the model solutions perhaps ending up in northeastern New Mexico. This also means certain models, like the GFS, that have the eastern plains of our forecast area reaching the mid to upper 40s during the day on Saturday are way too warm. Temperatures will likely stay in the mid 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 " One bias that models typically have in these types of setups is to position the center of the surface cyclone too far north. " Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 These mesoscale models are not really playing ball as of quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 NAM just doesn't have any moisture. 12z HRRR is solid though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Just now, n1vek said: These mesoscale models are not really playing ball as of quite yet. Which is a bit of a worry. Out east the NAM did quite well this year. Another model that did decent this year during a few events was the Icon. It has everything farther N up into WY and S Dakota. The cost of my trip might push 1000 and I don’t want to do that without a really really good shot at 3 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winteraddict Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 36 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Which is a bit of a worry. Out east the NAM did quite well this year. Another model that did decent this year during a few events was the Icon. It has everything farther N up into WY and S Dakota. The cost of my trip might push 1000 and I don’t want to do that without a really really good shot at 3 ft. I know what you mean. I flew in yesterday from Baltimore and it would be disappointing to get anything less than 2-3 feet. I was thinking of going to Estes park, but then again I might wait for more models to come in around afternoon before deciding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockymountainhigh Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 I don't think you could go wrong with Estes Park - it seems like its in the best location geographically for this storm. But Central City with all the casinos could be a good plan B, worst case you get to lose a bit of money while losing out on all the snow too :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, Winteraddict said: I know what you mean. I flew in yesterday from Baltimore and it would be disappointing to get anything less than 2-3 feet. I was thinking of going to Estes park, but then again I might wait for more models to come in around afternoon before deciding Sent you a pm. Not me rocky lol. If I go to a casino I’d end up stuck in Colorado for life, which I guess wouldn’t be terrible ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 What kind of ratios do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: What kind of ratios do you guys think? 8-12:1 depending on elevation maybe? Which is actually pretty low for out here where 20:1 isn't uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Euro has been pretty darn consistent with amounts. 18-24 again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Euro shifted south 25 miles. One more shift like that and we will be getting back closer to the 3" amounts near boulder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 The ECMWF looks extra juicy this run, at least for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 Just now, AlaskaETC said: The ECMWF looks extra juicy this run, at least for my area. Alaska... or Denver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Just now, Chinook said: Alaska... or Denver? Wyoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said: The ECMWF looks extra juicy this run, at least for my area. yeah generally it seemed to tack on an extra .1-.2" from Colorado Springs to FOCO due to the slight shift south at the mid-levels less in northern WY and SD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 4 hours ago, MidlothianWX said: Interesting note from the NWS AFD this morning: I'm a bit further north but NWS Riverton has been conservative, citing the GFS as a primary reason. I thought the temperatures were a little too warm for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 A couple of the models are showing more evidence of a barrier jet now, which could provide Fort Collins with the 35mph or blizzard-level wind gusts. This is a low-level jet that's aided by stable air moving towards steep mountains. As for other instances of a barrier jet, this can happen in OR/WA coasts as the oceanic air bumps into the coast ranges, with stronger storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Most of the point-and-click forecasts have trended in the wrong direction today. It feels like this guy is going to limp across the finish line in the metro area. Still will be a nice storm, but nothing like the hype some Facebook posts kicked off on Monday posting one crazy GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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