ValpoVike Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 It's still simply insane in southern Larimer with 9"+ around the Estes valley. I really don't know what to think, so many times do you see fantasy numbers but they almost always resolve over time. The GFS just seems to be going increasingly bonkers. Chinook, what does your met insight say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: GFS just dropped me from 20" down to 10" from 12z. For a model that was steadfast for a long time, it's all over the place now. The margins have shifted but the overall qpf picture for Denver/Boulder/FoCo has remained fairly consistent. For example, for the past 4+ runs the para GFS has put 5" +/- .2" over me. This 18z run continues that trend. Likely too juiced but it has been steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Wow, GFS para is much colder east of I-25. Much more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 This is when it gets fun. Now we wait for the next run of the Euro. See who blinks first. Or we go into nowcast-time with the GFS dropping 80" in RMNP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Just now, n1vek said: This is when it gets fun. Now we wait for the next run of the Euro. See who blinks first. Or we go into nowcast-time with the GFS dropping 80" in RMNP QPF-wise, the other globals are closer to the GFS than they are the Euro. Regardless, the next few model runs will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Hey guys looks like I’m flying out there tomorrow. Gonna figure out the complete logistics tonight. Last second decision as always haha. Should be fun. I’ve gotten some recommendations for spots so far (any state)...would appreciate any more. I need to find a place relatively close to an airport. I just chill at a hotel. Gonna need a gas station, rent a car, and WiFi and I’m all set ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey guys looks like I’m flying out there tomorrow. Gonna figure out the complete logistics tonight. Last second decision as always haha. Should be fun. I’ve gotten some recommendations for spots so far (any state)...would appreciate any more. I need to find a place relatively close to an airport. I just chill at a hotel. Gonna need a gas station, rent a car, and WiFi and I’m all set ha Rent a snowmobile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey guys looks like I’m flying out there tomorrow. Gonna figure out the complete logistics tonight. Last second decision as always haha. Should be fun. I’ve gotten some recommendations for spots so far (any state)...would appreciate any more. I need to find a place relatively close to an airport. I just chill at a hotel. Gonna need a gas station, rent a car, and WiFi and I’m all set ha Denver is your best bet to fly into, which is on the NE side of the city. That said you don't want to be on the NE side of the city for a snow storm chase, so take the drive over to Boulder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 The next runs of the 3-km NAM and HRRR (the 48 hour run) should give some insight as to whether the GFS is right with the stronger upslope/precip totals or not. My hunch is there is a lot of precip, but a lot of it will be rain. Not all though. Someone should get 30-40 inches of brick snow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 34 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey guys looks like I’m flying out there tomorrow. Gonna figure out the complete logistics tonight. Last second decision as always haha. Should be fun. I’ve gotten some recommendations for spots so far (any state)...would appreciate any more. I need to find a place relatively close to an airport. I just chill at a hotel. Gonna need a gas station, rent a car, and WiFi and I’m all set ha Boulder is roughly a ~45 minute drive from the airport and might be your best bet for this storm, assuming you want to stay relatively close as you said. Feel free to PM me if you need any help/advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 The gfs ensembles didn’t tick north the way the op did totally juiced for the whole metro but the southern side surely gets less from some members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 2km WRF pulled from a Facebook post: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, MidlothianWX said: Boulder is roughly a ~45 minute drive from the airport and might be your best bet for this storm, assuming you want to stay relatively close as you said. Feel free to PM me if you need any help/advice. Thank you. Now when it comes to elevation vs not being in the complete sticks is there any specific town near there that I should look fo? For example looking at that WRF image above I’m guessing those 40” plus amounts are up in the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Thank you. Now when it comes to elevation vs not being in the complete sticks is there any specific town near there that I should look fo? For example looking at that WRF image above I’m guessing those 40” plus amounts are up in the mountains? Estes Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Thank you. Now when it comes to elevation vs not being in the complete sticks is there any specific town near there that I should look fo? For example looking at that WRF image above I’m guessing those 40” plus amounts are up in the mountains? Estes I kind of like seeing what happens to the urban corridor but if Estes actually got 50” I’d be tempted. Not sure what wind direction favors them other than straight due east. If there is northerly component it could cut down maybe I don’t know. But these are somewhat remote roads to get to Estes so be careful and anticipate being stuck for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Thank you. Now when it comes to elevation vs not being in the complete sticks is there any specific town near there that I should look fo? For example looking at that WRF image above I’m guessing those 40” plus amounts are up in the mountains? Honestly, with an upslope/elevation dependent storm like this the difference between 25" (Boulder, low-end) and 40" (Nederland, for example) may well be only 10-15 miles as the crow flies. The issue is that that 10 miles may lead you to 0 places to stay that are open. If you want to stay IN the heaviest snow rather than NEAR it, Estes Park or Black Hawk (as others have mentioned) might be your best bet. Great chance of 3 feet of snow in either place. I lived in the Lehigh Valley for a while back in the 90s, and it's kind of like Allentown (places to stay, good but not great snow) and Palmerton (more snow but not really anyplace to stay). Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Thank you. Now when it comes to elevation vs not being in the complete sticks is there any specific town near there that I should look fo? For example looking at that WRF image above I’m guessing those 40” plus amounts are up in the mountains? I would try and stick around Boulder. Getting up and down the canyon roads might be incredibly really tough. Otherwise maybe Ward or Nederland would be a great place to get snowed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 4 hours ago, Amped said: Centennial, just south of Denver is elevated a bit and is where the Euro has the jackpot. Though I live in Centennial, and the GFS is saying 12" at my house, but 25" perhaps 2 miles west. What a gradient Must be me. Plenty of places to stay for reasonably cheap for all the DTC business travelers. Lots of new motels on Arapahoe Rd that look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wttnwx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Hey guys, whats your thoughts on I-80 for Sunday? Should be by NE panhandle early afternoon. Headed to Medicine Bow west of Laramie. Exit 80 at Snowy Range rd Laramie. Good chance they will shut it down? I dont know much about the weather. I come here (usually midwest sub) to see what you guys have to say about snowfall amounts. Bonus question, thoughts on snowfall totals at 10K ft in Snowy Range/Medicine Bow? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockymountainhigh Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 CDOT has said they are likely to shut down the highways for some time during the storm (and after for cleanup). I imagine Wyoming will do the same if its that bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 30 minutes ago, n1vek said: I would try and stick around Boulder. Getting up and down the canyon roads might be incredibly really tough. Otherwise maybe Ward or Nederland would be a great place to get snowed in. Yeah, this is kind of what I was getting at. If Wentz is fine with getting snowed in for a few days then I would go to Nederland or Estes Park for sure. Otherwise, Boulder is a safer bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: Though I live in Centennial, and the GFS is saying 12" at my house, but 25" perhaps 2 miles west. What a gradient Must be me. Plenty of places to stay for reasonably cheap for all the DTC business travelers. Lots of new motels on Arapahoe Rd that look pretty good. The GFS has a sharper gradient than the 2km wrf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Wttnwx said: Hey guys, whats your thoughts on I-80 for Sunday? Should be by NE panhandle early afternoon. Headed to Medicine Bow west of Laramie. Exit 80 at Snowy Range rd Laramie. Good chance they will shut it down? I dont know much about the weather. I come here (usually midwest sub) to see what you guys have to say about snowfall amounts. If you've never been in a Plains blizzard, it's an adventure, and though I like adventures, this is one I'd skip. Think driving in a snowglobe. No points of reference. You can't tell if you're going 10 mph or 100 mph. IF I-80 is open, which it likely won't be, that'll be the scene on Sunday if current forecasts hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: If you've never been in a Plains blizzard, it's an adventure, and though I like adventures, this is one I'd skip. Think driving in a snowglobe. No points of reference. You can't tell if you're going 10 mph or 100 mph. IF I-80 is open, which it likely won't be, that'll be the scene on Sunday if current forecasts hold. Yeah I plan to stay in hatever hotel/motel I find. I just have to get there before it starts, thats the challenging part. I shouild be able to afford to stay for a few nights wherever i end up. Thanks all. You wont find me on the roads thats for sure lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 3 hours ago, MidlothianWX said: Boulder is roughly a ~45 minute drive from the airport and might be your best bet for this storm, assuming you want to stay relatively close as you said. Feel free to PM me if you need any help/advice. Sorry to clog up the thread. Tried PMing you but didn't work. How is the drive from Denver International to Estes Park under normal wx conditions? Will I lose cell service during part of the trip? Just want to plan ahead as best as possible since Estes looks like where I'm headed. Gonna try to leave as early tomorrow as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 I live just outside of Estes. It is about 1:30 in normal traffic. You should be able to get back down the canyon by Tuesday morning I would estimate. Edit- you will lose cell btwn Lyons and Estes Park. Solid no signal for that stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Just now, ValpoVike said: I live just outside of Estes. It is about 1:30 in normal traffic. Appreciate it. I could grab an uber from the airport to estes for about 100 bucks. Not bad considering I dont really need a rental to drive anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Appreciate it. I could grab an uber from the airport to estes for about 100 bucks. Not bad considering I dont really need a rental to drive anywhere else. Be sure to get food, or stay very close to downtown. I wouldn't want to walk or drive this weekend. None of the hotels have restaurants except the Stanley, but rooms there are $$$$. But it has a big tie into The Shining, which may be a good mood setter for an epic snowstorm. Let's avoid more in the thread, and PM if you have questions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 minute ago, ValpoVike said: Be sure to get food, or stay very close to downtown. I wouldn't want to walk or drive this weekend. None of the hotels have restaurants except the Stanley, but rooms there are $$$$. But it has a big tie into The Shining, which may be a good mood setter for an epic snowstorm. Let's avoid more in the thread, and PM if you have questions. +1 for staying at the Stanley if you can swing it. Place is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 NAM doesn't seem overly impressed by the storm through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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