Heisy Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 16 hours ago, Chinook said: The Euro has over 20" from Denver all the way over to the Oklahoma panhandle. I live in Philadelphia, actually considering making a flight to chase this one ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 My goodness, GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 I think the GFS may be on crack, but it is a very juicy trend on most of the models with 2"+ QPF's being pretty common up and down the foothills and the front range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 I said recently I will not pay attention to any of the models till 72 hours out. So I'm not. Holy mackerel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Hey guys if anything close to the gfs and para end up happening what are places in the state that would be a choice to chase to? I’ve never been beyond Pittsburg PA so I obv don’t know much about Denver/suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey guys if anything close to the gfs and para end up happening what are places in the state that would be a choice to chase to? I’ve never been beyond Pittsburg PA so I obv don’t know much about Denver/suburbs we're a long way out, as you know, with modeling. if there is that much snow near the denver mountains, it wouldn't be the most safe thing to chase as there are areas where it isn't survivable out here. but the foothills / denver proper would be interesting. I'm not an expert chaser, I have just seen these mountains turn from driveable to "your survival is threatened" pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 12z ECMWF is increasing QPF in Larimer and Boulder foothills as well. If I were chasing, I would target the Peak to Peak highway....Nederland to Estes Park area, but as mentioned it would be quite dangerous unless you got a hotel and tracked from a window . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 2 hours ago, WeatherEmperor said: we're a long way out, as you know, with modeling. if there is that much snow near the denver mountains, it wouldn't be the most safe thing to chase as there are areas where it isn't survivable out here. but the foothills / denver proper would be interesting. I'm not an expert chaser, I have just seen these mountains turn from driveable to "your survival is threatened" pretty quickly. Thanks, I’m not an expert either just a hobbyist. I’d have to figure this out fast it’s hard because normally I drive to places in northeast for nor’easters. This would be a flight, rental/Uber. I’d have to find a place that isn’t remote though even if I sacrifice some snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 2 hours ago, ValpoVike said: 12z ECMWF is increasing QPF in Larimer and Boulder foothills as well. If I were chasing, I would target the Peak to Peak highway....Nederland to Estes Park area, but as mentioned it would be quite dangerous unless you got a hotel and tracked from a window . That’s what I normally do when I chase. So would need a recommendation/find a hotel in one of these areas. I don’t go out and drive during the event I just sit back and hope my hotel jackpots ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 This is the Euro. Mostly day 3.5-5.5 in real time now since this initialization is from 5 am this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: That’s what I normally do when I chase. So would need a recommendation/find a hotel in one of these areas. I don’t go out and drive during the event I just sit back and hope my hotel jackpots ha You could go to Black Hawk and stay at one of the casinos...maybe a jackpot either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 5 hours ago, ValpoVike said: I think the GFS may be on crack, but it is a very juicy trend on most of the models with 2"+ QPF's being pretty common up and down the foothills and the front range. I thought the same thing until I looked at ensembles and GEFS & EPS showing potentially historic snow for Denver Friday-Sunday. This will be a fun one to follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 18z GFS is even more insane than 12z. Obviously that'll never happen but it's fun to watch. Then again those kind of totals are far into the danger zone for many people. My biggest storm as an adult was in MD in 2010. We had two 20"+ storms within a week. It was nuts. The roof was creaking and I ran out of places to put the shoveled snow. It took a week to even get the neighborhood plowed so neighbors dug a path out to the main road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: 18z GFS is even more insane than 12z. Obviously that'll never happen but it's fun to watch. Then again those kind of totals are far into the danger zone for many people. My biggest storm as an adult was in MD in 2010. We had two 20"+ storms within a week. It was nuts. The roof was creaking and I ran out of places to put the shoveled snow. It took a week to even get the neighborhood plowed so neighbors dug a path out to the main road. I saw 70" when I lived in Chardon, OH which is geographically the bullseye in the Lake Erie snowbelt. The most I have seen up here is 44" on a few May's ago...but that melted almost entirely a day later with temps in the 70's. The AFD from NWS this afternoon is rightfully trying to walk thru all of the things that can get in the way, but I would be absolutely thrilled to get half of the 65" that the GFS is showing IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 At least on the snowbelt the towns are prepared. In Central MD, not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 The 990 mb low forecast over southern Kamchatka is pretty strong for mid-March. That's likely a pretty good storm 3/27-3/31. The storm forecast for this week was preceded by a 970 mb (!) low in that spot, +17 days, as you'd expect via the Bering Straight Rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 9 hours ago, ValpoVike said: 12z ECMWF is increasing QPF in Larimer and Boulder foothills as well. If I were chasing, I would target the Peak to Peak highway....Nederland to Estes Park area, but as mentioned it would be quite dangerous unless you got a hotel and tracked from a window . There are a few nice places to stay in Estes Park, as good a base as any. If you want to observe impact on populated areas, then Boulder. If you are into rustic and potentially cut off from civilization, the Allenspark Lodge right on the Peak to Peak Highway is great if it's open (not sure if it is in winter or in COVID). Great breakfasts there. 50 inches of snow for that area is actually not super rare. Find a way to get a hold of some xc skis or snowshoes and have a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 6 hours ago, smokeybandit said: 18z GFS is even more insane than 12z. Obviously that'll never happen but it's fun to watch. Then again those kind of totals are far into the danger zone for many people. My biggest storm as an adult was in MD in 2010. We had two 20"+ storms within a week. It was nuts. The roof was creaking and I ran out of places to put the shoveled snow. It took a week to even get the neighborhood plowed so neighbors dug a path out to the main road. Blizzard of '78 in metro Boston, baby. One for the ages. 30 inches of dense snow on top of 20 inches 2 weeks earlier, hurricane force winds, huge coastal flooding, school out for 2 weeks (yes, in MA), state of emergency for 1 week, the whole deal. I think Mike Dukakis wore the same sweater for like 10 straight days (look it up). That one got me started on weather. I still have a test tube of water from that blizzard in a box in the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 GFS now has 5 straight runs with a 40" swath. I still can't see that coming close to verifying but gotta give the model credit for consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 GFS isn't blinking at all. In fact, some areas in Larimer county are now showing over 7" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 19 hours ago, smokeybandit said: 18z GFS is even more insane than 12z. Obviously that'll never happen but it's fun to watch. Then again those kind of totals are far into the danger zone for many people. My biggest storm as an adult was in MD in 2010. We had two 20"+ storms within a week. It was nuts. The roof was creaking and I ran out of places to put the shoveled snow. It took a week to even get the neighborhood plowed so neighbors dug a path out to the main road. I love reminiscing about the 2009-10 season. I was in Richmond at the time and followed every storm very closely on these boards. My love for winter weather was sparked by PDII though - I was living in Frederick, MD at the time and we received something like 25" which is still my all-time IMBY total (followed closely by Nov '19 here in Boulder). If the 12z GFS is anywhere close to accurate though - and that is a massive "if" - I might be looking at finally breaking that record. Looks to be about 4.8" of qpf from Fri-Sun for Boulder proper. Quote Blizzard of '78 in metro Boston, baby. One for the ages. 30 inches of dense snow on top of 20 inches 2 weeks earlier, hurricane force winds, huge coastal flooding, school out for 2 weeks (yes, in MA), state of emergency for 1 week, the whole deal. I think Mike Dukakis wore the same sweater for like 10 straight days (look it up). That one got me started on weather. I still have a test tube of water from that blizzard in a box in the basement. I chased Feb '13 in Boston. I want to say the final total was something like 26". Got knocked over by a wind gust, met Jim Cantore, and randomly bumped into a few AmWx members at a bar. I believe that was only the second time in history that they shut the roads down, after '78 of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 I don't really know how to parse when two completely different models are aligned on a major storm but diverge significantly on QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, WeatherEmperor said: I don't really know how to parse when two completely different models are aligned on a major storm but diverge significantly on QPF amounts. Actually, the 12z Euro and the 12z GFSv16 are in decent alignment. They even are fairly remarkably close in terms of the bullseye, with about .6" delta in QPF and much lesser discrepancies further south around Denver. The GFS on the other hand is still way out there on the maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 The GFS digs the 500mb low more into AZ and NM. The Euro ensemble members are all over with the position of the 500 low. About half of them dig it enough to smash Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 I wasn't able to get on the internet yesterday evening, because Comcast broke down or something. Now the GFS has 58" for me!!!! Better go to the store. Again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 I got kind of chilly while taking these pictures. I figured it was nearly 70 degrees in the daytime, so I should wear a t-shirt to take sunset pics. Nope. 55 degrees and windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Just now, Chinook said: I got kind of chilly while taking these pictures. I figured it was nearly 70 degrees in the daytime, so I should wear a t-shirt to take sunset pics. Nope. 55 degrees and windy photos like these are why it is difficult for me to want to leave this place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 These are the ensemble plumes for Denver (DIA). Even if we are at the ensemble average of 2.78", that's 27.8" with 10:1 ratios, or 25.0" with 9:1 ratios, as the value of the snow-liquid ratio would get lower as the snow packs down under its own weight. And, of course, there 100% chance that the total QPF will be higher as you go to 6000-7000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 41 minutes ago, Chinook said: These are the ensemble plumes for Denver (DIA). Even if we are at the ensemble average of 2.78", that's 27.8" with 10:1 ratios, or 25.0" with 9:1 ratios, as the value of the snow-liquid ratio would get lower as the snow packs down under its own weight. And, of course, there 100% chance that the total QPF will be higher as you go to 6000-7000 ft. And some of them show 50% more on the west side of the metro than at DIA.. not even in the foothills. As is common DIA will probably get the least in the whole metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 The 18z GFS says, why not crank it up a bit more? Boulder: 6.3" qpf Denver: 5.6" qpf Kuchera says nearly 77" for Boulder - unreal. Definitely won't verify but it's fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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