raindancewx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Lowest daily SOI value since late November on the update tonight. I've been targeting roughly week two of March for some good storms out here, either New Mexico, Colorado, or both for a while now. We have SOI support for something 3/5-3/6, and the Bering Straight Rule supports something 3/12-3/16, given that the big 970 mb (ish) low moved south of Kamchatka today. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 24 Feb 2021 1010.22 1006.20 -3.46 14.79 15.65 23 Feb 2021 1011.86 1005.55 7.54 15.24 15.75 22 Feb 2021 1012.44 1003.90 18.25 15.18 15.73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 The storm is starting here. The radar shows some slightly bubbly or convective areas of snow. My place has a few snowflakes so far. 700mb winds are E or SE. Surface winds are NE, E, or SE. Edit: winter weather advisory for Denver city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Took a while for the column to saturate here- there were pretty strong echoes by about 6 PM, but at 7:09 the temp was still 36 with a DP of 16. Then the temp dropped 5 degrees and the DP rose 6 degrees in 5 minutes, and finally things saturated by about 8 and now we have lots of pretty aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 25, 2021 Author Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said: Took a while for the column to saturate here- there were pretty strong echoes by about 6 PM, but at 7:09 the temp was still 36 with a DP of 16. Then the temp dropped 5 degrees and the DP rose 6 degrees in 5 minutes, and finally things saturated by about 8 and now we have lots of pretty aggregates. 5" of snow reported in downtown Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 And 3.5" here right now. Not bad for about 3 hours total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Looks likesome folks did really well with this, but for me yet another bust. About 3" of the 4-8" forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 This was definitely one of the weirdest storms I've experienced in terms of snowfall distribution. Contrary to typical patterns, a big blob sat over the Denver Metro area all night- not the foothills as much, not Boulder. We were on the very southeast edge of the heavier snow with 11.5" of fluff. I wouldn't be surprised to see some legitimate 15" numbers coming out of the Denver/Aurora area as they come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 The gradient for this storm was intense. I got 3.5" and 8 miles west of me got 7, and 8 miles west of that got over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 25, 2021 Author Share Posted February 25, 2021 my place got 3-4" 12" of snow in downtown should've gotten a winter storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 I thought Denver was upgraded overnight, but I could be wrong. EDIT: Here is text that I found in this morning's forecast discussion: We`ll keep the Winter Storm Warning going for the Denver and Boulder metro areas going early this morning (until 8 am) with the heavier band expected to slowly break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 Radar loop for Denver metro area for our recent storm http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_24_2021_radar_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Cool! We'd best savor that, as it looks mighty boring for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 A nice little unforecasted surprise this morning of ~3" and still snowing. Not much, but we'll take it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 Pretty impressively dry winter nationally. Especially since this winter will likely be thought of as "stormy" for the US. Albuquerque is already guaranteed a pretty snowy season overall, but the winter itself had only 60% of normal precipitation. The real dry spots were the Montana/North Dakota border, SE NM, and California generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Would have been my best storm of the winter with colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, smokeybandit said: Would have been my best storm of the winter with colder temps. Argh! Thought you might be getting snow. Pouring rain here all evening, weird for early March. Changes to snow for a minute then resumes raining. 0.26" rain so far, would have been 5 inches of snow in last week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 It was all snow, just tough to overcome marginal temps for significant accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 GFS has consistently a real nice snow storm for the Palmer Divide SE of Denver for the last several days for Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 6, 2021 Author Share Posted March 6, 2021 Possible scenarios-- the models are not really in agreement, but snow could happen on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday if it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 That storm is likely real at least. It is in the 3/12-3/16 time frame I flagged in late February with the 970 mb low off southern Kamchatka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 We may really have to watch this one. The normally stingy WPC 168-hour values have upped our area to 0.3" - 0.7" of QPF for the week (0.9" for the Palmer Divide.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 GFS has been oddly consistent with this storm. It's had it for at least the last 12 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 The Euro has over 20" from Denver all the way over to the Oklahoma panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 For a real trip down fantasy lane, check out the GFS Kuchera numbers thru Sunday in the Larimer county foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Chinook said: The Euro has over 20" from Denver all the way over to the Oklahoma panhandle. GFS with a ton of 20" too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 This could be 1.15"--> 13.8" of snow at a 12:1 ratio in *just* 24 hours. I am really hoping that none of this happens on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 After what we went thru last August thru October, I say bring it on. Moisture rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Late February to early March has actually been seeing a bunch of little lows moving to the southern tip of Kamchatka from NW to SE. Should be more systems in late March and early April moving in favorable paths for CO, NM, and WY. Fantasy range GFS has another 970 mb low south of Kamchatka on 3/17. My guess is that's the end of the sequence, and it would show up here around 4/3-4/7 if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Would love to see this- several storms really. Would be so nice to get out of the rut that could promise a very nasty fire season again. Long long term (seasonal) from NCEP isn't looking super great, so anything we can get on the front end would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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