AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 3:45 AM, smokeybandit said: It's the worst run yet for my back yard. Literally no snow through sunday 0z Expand I have a feeling the operational GFS will be off quite a bit for the Denver area. Really seems like an outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 maybe the GFS has less cold air damming against the foothills? would also explain the lower QPF farther east. I remember the cold air damming 38" storm in Burlington Jan 2010. Cold air damming was so extreme the mountains barely got snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 3:53 AM, skierinvermont said: maybe the GFS has less cold air damming against the foothills? would also explain the lower QPF farther east. I remember the cold air damming 38" storm in Burlington Jan 2010. Cold air damming was so extreme the mountains barely got snow. Expand I am interested in hearing a more technical analysis of why the Para GFS is colder/wetter than the operational GFS for this storm in particular. The 0z Para GFS is a weenie run for everyone from Denver to Casper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Gfs v15 gives me zero snow. Gfs v16 gives me 22" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 3:56 AM, AlaskaETC said: I am interested in hearing a more technical analysis of why the Para GFS is colder/wetter than the operational GFS for this storm in particular. The 0z Para GFS is a weenie run for everyone from Denver to Casper. Expand I do notice the v15 has a lot more surface wind, blowing in the warm air, scouring out the surface cold, and then since there's no resistance until the moisture has to rise over the foothills we get the extreme qpf over the foothills instead of I25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 4:00 AM, skierinvermont said: I do notice the v15 has a lot more surface wind, blowing in the warm air, scouring out the surface cold, and then since there's no resistance until the moisture has to rise over the foothills we get the extreme qpf over the foothills Expand That makes a lot of sense. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 3:56 AM, smokeybandit said: Gfs v15 gives me zero snow. Gfs v16 gives me 22" Expand 5 more days till the v16 becomes op. These are some of the last chunks gfsv15 will ever blow. It has both way too much and way to little on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 v15 on the right with all the surface wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 4:03 AM, skierinvermont said: v15 on the right with all the surface wind Expand That'll be a feature to track once we get into the nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 0z para has decided to bullseye Boulder with 4.3" qpf, hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 The UKMET seems like a good blend of the NAM/Para GFS and the operational GFS. Denver gets more snow and some of the amounts in the front range are moderated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Euro 10:1 maps upped Denver from 19.4" to 26.5"... so 24" with 9:1 ratios solid 25-50 mile south shift one more shift like that and the meet of it would be slamming into the northern foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13, 2021 Author Share Posted March 13, 2021 Now the NAM is somewhat respectable compared to the global models, in terms of higher snowfall totals. Sometimes I don't know what it takes for our premiere US regional model to actually forecast snow for the Front Range. I don't think we've had so many posts in the Mountain West discussion in 24hrs+ in .... forever. It looks like now I can say that the snow/rain will develop east of I-25 tomorrow and rotate west over the next 6 hours to fill in the entire area, as the 700mb 0C line will stay in eastern Colorado. A bunch of this rain will push north into Nebraska. The colder 700mb temperatures of -3C to -7C will be just enough to keep the precipitation as snow near I-25. I have kind of not looked at a bunch of the details with the radar/precip rate as each model had some different variations of this dynamic storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Oh wow, the Euro QPF jump is impressive. Boulder: 12z: 2.1" 0z: 2.9" Denver: 12z: 2.1" 0z: 2.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 6:20 AM, MidlothianWX said: Oh wow, the Euro QPF jump is impressive. Boulder: 12z: 2.1" 0z: 2.9" Denver: 12z: 2.1" 0z: 2.8" Expand yeah awesome bump right before the storm after holding solid at 1.8-2.2 for most runs for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 The ECMWF is very friendly to just about everyone from Denver to Casper. I get about 20" verbatim, and 2.4" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 It will be interesting to see what the ensembles say. I know we are very close to game-time now but BOU has said that they are creating their maps based off of ensemble blends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 3:04 AM, MidlothianWX said: Having lived and tracked storms in the MA for ~10 years before moving here, I'll say that nothing beats a NESIS storm. That being said, 20" events are a 1 in 5 year occurrence in Boulder, which might explain the lack of action here. Expand Moved from Central MA 10+ years ago, born and raised there. Funny that annual snowfall here is exactly the same as the neighborhood I came from (though the water equivalent is less than half). Differences are mainly that there is just so much weather of consequence in the NE due to more water, and the winter storms there (perhaps 8- 10 a year in a good year, some hit, some miss) all follow the same 2-3 patterns, which have great entertainment value. The suspense is always there. Here, we get lots of little storms, but only 1 or at most 2 good Four Corners lows a year. Drought and fires tend to turn one off from following the wx. The one exciting thing here that is different for sure is supercell thunderstorms- but they appear and vanish so quickly that "following" them is hard. Most significant hailstorms at any given point are impossible to predict more than a few hours in advance, if that. Anyway, just my $.02. Gettin' ready for a mayjawintastawm, ayuh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 6:29 AM, MidlothianWX said: It will be interesting to see what the ensembles say. I know we are very close to game-time now but BOU has said that they are creating their maps based off of ensemble blends. Expand I mean who knows if it will bump as much as the OP's 40%, but the ridging north of the storm was stronger than 12z beginning from initialization. That ridging has been coming in stronger than modeled on the whole 18z and 00z suite.. pretty much all the models showed this to some extent. That's shunting the mid-level dynamics south and tightening the gradient. So I'd expect some kind of bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 6:34 AM, skierinvermont said: I mean who knows if it will bump as much as the OP's 40%, but the ridging north of the storm was stronger than 12z beginning from initialization. That ridging has been coming in stronger than modeled on the whole 18z and 00z suite.. pretty much all the models showed this to some extent. Expand Yeah, which validates BOU's suspicion that this system might ultimately take a slightly more southerly track than has been depicted by some of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 I have safely arrived at the hotel in Estes Park. Travel was fine a bit foggy in the mountains though. With a fellow chaser. Hoping we can eclipse 2 feet here and my hope deep down is 3 feet, but we’ll see. I’ve never seen more than 30” in my life. Good luck everyone. 6z NAM looks a bit better btw 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 11:17 AM, Wentzadelphia said: I have safely arrived at the hotel in Estes Park. Travel was fine a bit foggy in the mountains though. With a fellow chaser. Hoping we can eclipse 2 feet here and my hope deep down is 3 feet, but we’ll see. I’ve never seen more than 30” in my life. Good luck everyone. 6z NAM looks a bit better btw Expand Welcome to EP. Yes the fog has been thick since yesterday afternoon. Which hotel did you choose? Hint: Claire's downtown or the Notchtop have the best breakfasts :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 11:17 AM, Wentzadelphia said: I have safely arrived at the hotel in Estes Park. Travel was fine a bit foggy in the mountains though. With a fellow chaser. Hoping we can eclipse 2 feet here and my hope deep down is 3 feet, but we’ll see. I’ve never seen more than 30” in my life. Good luck everyone. 6z NAM looks a bit better btw Expand You never experienced 30 inches in the Philly area ? Not from a storm in 2009-2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 12z HRRR is ticking up for Denver and points north by an additional .5", and an additional 1" in the foothills. Does anyone have any ideas on why the Para GFS is outputting lower QPF in the foothills than those down along the urban corridor? Quite odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 1:56 PM, ValpoVike said: 12z HRRR is ticking up for Denver and points north by an additional .5", and an additional 1" in the foothills. Does anyone have any ideas on why the Para GFS is outputting lower QPF in the foothills than those down along the urban corridor? Quite odd. Expand Nice to see the HRRR coming onboard. Just going to have to watch the radar fill in today. And I guess any southward trend (even 15-25 miles) will make a big difference locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 2:10 PM, n1vek said: Nice to see the HRRR coming onboard. Just going to have to watch the radar fill in today. And I guess any southward trend (even 15-25 miles) will make a big difference locally. Expand Even the 3km NAM is getting wetter. About the same increase for FoCo and the Larimer foothills, but holding steady south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Storm isn't due in for another few hours, but I've got some teaser rain/snow mix already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockymountainhigh Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 “Does anyone have any ideas on why the Para GFS is outputting lower QPF in the foothills than those down along the urban corridor? Quite odd.” I agree. Might just be a model quirk. We’re seeing significant ice pellets now where I’m at (Evergreen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 2:25 PM, smokeybandit said: Storm isn't due in for another few hours, but I've got some teaser rain/snow mix already. Expand Very thick fog up here. I live on a steep sloping hill side, and cannot see the bottom of my property which is about 300' down. Definitely getting moist out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 1:55 PM, MJO812 said: You never experienced 30 inches in the Philly area ? Not from a storm in 2009-2010? Expand There may have been 30 spots near my house but I don’t think I hit it personally Think it was like 27” if I’m correct. looks like NWS has 18-30 here so got a shot I suppose if we get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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