AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 The 18z GFS definitely isn't kind to the Denver area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Just now, AlaskaETC said: The 18z GFS definitely isn't kind to the Denver area. Saw that tweet yesterday about how the current operational GFS is being put to pasture shortly anyways. I guess we can ride the Para GFS for now (depending on if it is more favorable for my backyard, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 The old GFS is just mailing it in knowing it's having its desk and red stapler moved to the basement next week while GFS Para gets promoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said: The 18z GFS definitely isn't kind to the Denver area. GFS seems to overdo UHI, which I think explains the gap in snow when both north and south of the metro are getting slammed. I think the rates would be enough to overcome the shallow warm layer, at least during the peak of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, n1vek said: Saw that tweet yesterday about how the current operational GFS is being put to pasture shortly anyways. I guess we can ride the Para GFS for now (depending on if it is more favorable for my backyard, of course). Certainly seems like the operational GFS is a little warm, while the Para GFS is much colder/wetter. I hope the Para GFS is right because that's like 25" in my backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 5 hours ago, smokeybandit said: 8-12:1 depending on elevation maybe? Which is actually pretty low for out here where 20:1 isn't uncommon. It looks like the drug dealer came back to visit the GFS again... 18z Larimer county is again off the charts compared to 12z. Back to the old look of ~9". Fun to dream about, but I'll take half that (what is in the para) and be super happy and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 latest NWS digital forecast-- when values of 26" are hard to read due to the color scheme, but you need to know... Still, probably some adjustments in the forecast to come in the next 18 hours or so. I guess there is the kind of interesting question as to how much snow affects northwest Nebraska, as opposed to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Boulder went from 2.6" to 5" qpf from 12z to 18z gfs... lol... a little erratic to be doubling qpf right before the storm 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Wth....most of the posters from this thread are from the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 There isn't much action in this thread. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 What kind of ratios do you guys think?Are you there dude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 @Ji - It is oddly quiet. I lurked/posted occasionally on the Great Lakes forums while living in Michigan and would cheer on the NE during their big events. Not sure if there is another place everyone is landing to discuss weather in this region. The standard deviations from the mean of some of those GFS runs would've crashed the website if an equivalent storm was heading for the i95 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 I think most people here are on the east coast. Mountain West discussions are usually not that active. Snowstorms aren't a rare generational event here either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Hypothesis: The half dozen or so of us who post regularly are 1) tired 2) at the store 3) looking out the window and checking the temp every 30 seconds. And we've had almost a week of GFS stupidity, so there's that. And the No Accumulation Model with its mega-dry slot is making everyone mad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 I think most people here are on the east coast. Mountain West discussions are usually not that active. Snowstorms aren't a rare generational event here either...Lol. Tney get monster storms every fall and spring. We get them once a decade:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Hypothesis: The half dozen or so of us who post regularly are 1) tired 2) at the store 3) looking out the window and checking the temp every 30 seconds. And we've had almost a week of GFS stupidity, so there's that. And the No Accumulation Model with its mega-dry slot is making everyone mad.The nam usually overdoes snow on the east coast. Was surprised it was so dry when I looked at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: What kind of ratios do you guys think? Are you there dude? I’m literally on the plane now. I’m worried when I get there roads will be closed to Estes and I won’t be able to get in. Then it’s bolder, but we’ll see. This is earliest I could leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: I’m literally on the plane now. I’m worried when I get there roads will be closed to Estes and I won’t be able to get in. Then it’s bolder, but we’ll see. This is earliest I could leave You're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I’m literally on the plane now. I’m worried when I get there roads will be closed to Estes and I won’t be able to get in. Then it’s bolder, but we’ll see. This is earliest I could leave When will you be driving to Estes? I think the earliest they would close is sometime mid-morning. More likely they don't close until sometime tomorrow evening or night when the Euro shows a second wave of heavy precip moving in. CO can handle snow, it's just the 40" that overwhelms the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 I’m literally on the plane now. I’m worried when I get there roads will be closed to Estes and I won’t be able to get in. Then it’s bolder, but we’ll see. This is earliest I could leaveWow have fun. Sorry it's going to cost you so much to see snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I’m literally on the plane now. I’m worried when I get there roads will be closed to Estes and I won’t be able to get in. Then it’s bolder, but we’ll see. This is earliest I could leave Enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 0z NAM appears to have most of the action in the front range and central Wyoming, extending into South Dakota and parts of Nebraska. Denver still gets decent totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 1 minute ago, AlaskaETC said: 0z NAM appears to have most of the action in the front range and central Wyoming, extending into South Dakota and parts of Nebraska. Denver still gets decent totals. Yeah it was a solid shift south from 18z.. starting to look more similar to the globals' mid-levels. no longer stupidly taking the 500mb low over denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 FWIW, I've been following this guy since I moved out here and he is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 48 minutes ago, Ji said: 58 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said: I think most people here are on the east coast. Mountain West discussions are usually not that active. Snowstorms aren't a rare generational event here either... Lol. Tney get monster storms every fall and spring. We get them once a decade:( Having lived and tracked storms in the MA for ~10 years before moving here, I'll say that nothing beats a NESIS storm. That being said, 20" events are a 1 in 5 year occurrence in Boulder, which might explain the lack of action here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, MidlothianWX said: Having lived and tracked storms in the MA for ~10 years before moving here, I'll say that nothing beats a NESIS storm. That being said, 20" events are a 1 in 5 year occurrence in Boulder, which might explain the lack of action here. Agreed. I lived in DC a few years ago. The snowstorms here are great, but Nor'easters are just entirely different and uniquely magical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said: Agreed. I lived in DC a few years ago. The snowstorms here are great, but Nor'easters are just entirely different and uniquely magical. In my 6ish years here I think the most I've seen is around 18" and that was probably the only one above 15". Hoping this has the noreaster feel with long duration heavy snow. I think there are a couple reasons this thread isn't as lively as a MA thread 1) This was originally an east coast only forum 2) There are ballpark 80 million people from NC to ME or 60 million from DC to Boston compared to maybe 3 million from Pueblo to Cheyenne east of the divide. In the same distance (200 miles) from DC to NY there are close to 50 million people. The population density in the east is over 10x. 3) Snow is more frequent here and also the terrain means usually snow is more isolated rather than tracking a single storm that will affect 60+ million. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 People east of I25 will like the new GFS. really fills it in like the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, skierinvermont said: People east of I25 will like the new GFS. really fills it in like the other models It's the worst run yet for my back yard. Literally no snow through sunday 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: It's the worst run yet for my back yard. Literally no snow through sunday 0z yeah i was looking more up north east of FOCO. I see yeah not much down by you and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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