olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow. Short term question is interaction with the Yucatan which would obviously hinder development. Longer term good chance this gets sheared apart in the Gulf. Most models just kill it once it gets into the GOM with just the low level remnant circulation moving west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 I was just thinking that this is clearly a TD. It'll be interesting to see how quickly this can rev up before reaching the northeast Yucatan coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Recon on the way Hmmm....did I miss something? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Nice. Another broken recon mission. Glad we had tax breaks for the wealthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Nice. Another broken recon mission. Glad we had tax breaks for the wealthy. Unbelievable... Safety first and foremost but damn we've been plagued this year with flight issues. Pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2020 Author Share Posted October 2, 2020 Increasingly it seems, the models are showing an extremely high shear in the gulf will tear soon to be Gamma to shreads. The only way I see it surviving is if it manages to stall out a bit until the environment can improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 The current upper level flow is quite favorable. It's just lacking a core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 The only place in the GOM where where shear is forecasted to remain low (and there's little dry air) is the Bay of Campeche. There have been a few GFS runs showing a significant cyclone there (not the Euro), but most just shove it well SW, after the Yucatan, towards land, without much chances to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Hello, Gamma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 86.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. After landfall, slight weakening or little change in strength is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 A few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found maximum winds of around 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone, which was the reason why it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gamma. Since then, there have been no stronger winds reported so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The minimum pressure estimated by the aircraft is quite low at 998 mb, so it seems likely that the winds will increase soon. The storm also has better banding features compared to hours ago and deep convection has also been persisting near the center. Fixes from the aircraft indicate that Gamma has jogged to the left recently, but smoothing through the short-term jog suggests an initial motion of 310/8 kt. The tropical storm is expected to remain on the western periphery of a subtropical high during the next couple of days, and that should cause the storm to move slowly northwestward during that time period. This track should take Gamma across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and perhaps over the extreme south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. By early next week, a mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm while another low pressure area is forecast to develop to the east of Gamma. This change in the steering pattern is expected to cause the storm to make a sharp left turn toward the Bay of Campeche, but continue to move at a fairly slow forward speed. The models have shifted well to the south from 48-120 hours this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Despite the shift, most of the reliable models are south of the new official track forecast, and future southward adjustments could be necessary. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional strengthening until the cyclone reaches the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher landfall intensity there. Once the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula and the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, the combination of land interaction, an increase in shear, and drier air should limit the amount of strengthening into next week. At this point, no model shows Gamma becoming a hurricane, and the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength for much of the forecast period. The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 86.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 21.6N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 22.0N 88.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.9N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 21.0N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 20.3N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Sure looks like more than 45 kt to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Impressive shape and outflow. Trying hard to become a hurricane before striking the Yucatan. Doubt it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Dueling CBs within the CDO with enough distance off the Rivera Maya coast that Gamma may very well attain hurricane intensity by landfall. Been a number of these this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 This could have been quite a storm with one more day over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 New dropsonde says 983 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Windspeed said: Dueling CBs within the CDO with enough distance off the Rivera Maya coast that Gamma may very well attain hurricane intensity by landfall. Been a number of these this year. Yep...goin' super saiyan right up to landfall...I wonder what's caused that phenomenon this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 This system is impressive. It appears to be rapidly strengthening as it is about to move inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 This is likely a hurricane. If this had another 24 hours over water this system would be a beast, has “the look” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Landfall. Gamma didn't pull off the upgrade. Trivial as far as impacts, but obviously those seasonal numbers.... 000 WTNT65 KNHC 031658 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO... Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum, Mexico, around 1145 AM CDT. The storm was very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts. A weather station at Xel-Ha Park, along the Yucatan coast just north of Tulum, reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) within the past hour. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 87.5W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 We don't see many 980 mb tropical storms. The visible loop sure looks like a hurricane. Another recon was on the way, but there was no way they'd get down there in time so they turned around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 This is clearly a 65-70 kt hurricane. Visible looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 There is a wide envelop of possible tracks from model guidance. GEFS shows it loitering in the GOM away from land for awhile. EPS shows it creeping south and hugging the coast. UKMET shows it moving into the northern GOM eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 We are getting rain here right now on the west central Florida coast in October. Always a treat, and almost always a tropical system this time of year (even though a cold front did come through this past week). I think we'd be in a drought this summer if not for the steady stream of TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Models combining Gamma and 92L into the ultimate slopgyre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, Amped said: Models combining Gamma and 92L into the ultimate slopgyre Figuring here October 10 through 14 is a time to watch for Florida Gulf Coast. If we get through that, we'll start to relax. Not that we are not starting to relax even now... But hey, November is never a slam dunk finished season either. I may start to watch the blizzard forums... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Still impressive over land as the sun is starting to go down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 I decided to look up "Gamma" on the internet, to see what I could learn. Now I think forever to me, "Gamma" was the tropical storm that was in early October 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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