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October 2020 General Discussion


cyclone77
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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

La Nina and below average Octobers are rare. More typical in Nino's. Do you know any that have occurred during a La Nina in Chicago? How did the following winter pan out? 

In the 22 La Ninas since 1950, just 6 had colder than average Octobers here. 

1964, great winter 

1974, great winter 

1983 great winter 

1988, crap winter 

1999, meh winter 

2008, great winter 

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Just now, Gino27 said:

I just can't... I can't even imagine something like this. I can understand it's possible for stuff like this to happen soon in the Upper Midwest, but I don't recall fantasy storms this early.

This would be about 15 days ahead of last years winter storm in the GTA. Every day after mid October gets more and more realistic to see snow in the sub forum. The last two Octobers ive seen light accumulations in the northern suburbs of Toronto 

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1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

This would be about 15 days ahead of last years winter storm in the GTA. Every day after mid October gets more and more realistic to see snow in the sub forum. The last two Octobers ive seen light accumulations in the northern suburbs of Toronto 

Well yeah, it's theoretically possible. One could see it as being just as possible as snow later in the Spring (which we had this year). My area has only seen measurable snow in October five times since records have been kept. One of those times was from the remnants of Sandy. Early snows seem to be the trend in the last decade. I just don't know how I feel about seeing it this early on.

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7 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS continues to tease snow events for the upper midwest in the 1-2 week period.  Last night's Euro had a good one up in Minnesota.

At the very least, it appears the garden season will be over.

I closed up/cleaned up most of my garden today. I still have a couple of tomato plants, a few green beans, and onions and carrots in the ground. Otherwise, it's cleaned, tilled and ready for my snow board.

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5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

In the 22 La Ninas since 1950, just 6 had colder than average Octobers here. 

1964, great winter 

1974, great winter 

1983 great winter 

1988, crap winter 

1999, meh winter 

2008, great winter 

Interesting. Goes back to what I was saying earlier. Cold Octobers are rare in Nina's. 1988 and 1999 were both crap. There was a few cold outbreaks but they were dry as hell overall. 1974-75 was a warm winter with no cold outbreaks. I'll take the other 3 any day. 

Btw hope you're feeling better :) 

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27 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Interesting. Goes back to what I was saying earlier. Cold Octobers are rare in Nina's. 1988 and 1999 were both crap. There was a few cold outbreaks but they were dry as hell overall. 1974-75 was a warm winter with no cold outbreaks. I'll take the other 3 any day. 

Btw hope you're feeling better :) 

1974-75 was snowy here. im feeling a lot better, just have a nagging cough and shortness of breath otherwise the other symptoms are gone.

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7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1974-75 was snowy here. im feeling a lot better, just have a nagging cough and shortness of breath otherwise the other symptoms are gone.

It was average here snow wise. Temp wise was warm. 

That's great. Keep up with your vitamins everyday, maybe exercise or go for a walk if you can, and you'll be 100% in no time. 

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With the increasing probability we may see our first snowflakes and even accumulating snowfall over the next 2 weeks, I looked back at all the Octobers that recorded more than an inch at YYZ. Records at YYZ only go back to 1937. 

1962: 2.9" - Neutral

1969: 4.8" - El Nino

1976: 1.6" - El Nino

1981: 2.4" - Neutral

1997: 1.1" - El Nino

2018: 1.0" - El Nino 

YYZ has recorded measurable snow in 17 Octobers since 1937. Only 2 were La Nina's (1964, 2010) and 8 were El Nino's. So the upcoming pattern is in some ways highly unusual solely from an ENSO perspective, atleast locally. 

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Today is the 54th consecutive day with less than 0.10" at IND.  

Looks like some rain tomorrow, but not much.  Could get close to that 0.10" but if I had to bet on it, I think the streak will survive.  Would be more confident though if the chance of thunder were nil, but there is a small possibility of a thunderstorm.

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32 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

A United flight had to return to ORD after flying through a hail core over Lake Michigan. :yikes:

PIREP: ORD UA /OV ORD090035/TM 1925/FL155/TP A320/RM HAIL-CRACKED WIND SHIELD

That has to be terrifying to fly through hail. I can only imagine what the noise onboard was like.

I remember on my way to West Lafayette  driving through something like this. Had 60-70 mph winds and downbursts so intense it brought hail & what seemed like snow to the surface at 50 degree temps.

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13 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

That has to be terrifying to fly through hail. I can only imagine what the noise onboard was like.

I remember on my way to West Lafayette  driving through something like this. Had 60-70 mph winds and downbursts so intense it brought hail & what seemed like snow to the surface at 50 degree temps.

No doubt. One of my favorite weather memories involved hearing what ended up being a billion-dollar hail storm with baseballs approach my place in Madison, WI. No roar quite like that. It was in the 40s out during April to the north of a warm front. 

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