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October Discobs 2020


George BM
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3 hours ago, frd said:

Looking ahead we go significantly above normal later this week. Anyone with flowers that did not have meaningful frost damage  look to hang around deep into the month.  Huge storm off the coast late week.  but a phasing opportunity is lessening. 

I covered by cherished lantanas to hold on to them for a while longer.  We got to 37 and had light frost, mostly on roofs and cars.  Garden looks good for a while longer.  Could use some rain though!

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Looking forward to the warm temps this week...I’d never turn down upper 70s and sun in October.  

From my weenie perspective, upper 70s in October mean we might get exciting weather with the next front so I'm on board:twister:

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Interesting... did not know this was coming 

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettCecilTransfer

Transfer of NWS Forecast and Warning Services for Maryland's Garrett and Cecil Counties to NWS Baltimore/Washington Effective November 10, 2020

Beginning Tuesday, November 10, 2020, at 7:00 AM EST, the National Weather Service (NWS) will transfer all warning and forecast responsibilities for Garrett and Cecil counties, MD, from NWS Pittsburgh (Garrett) and NWS Philadelphia (Cecil), to NWS Baltimore/Washington.  If November 10th  is deemed a Critical Weather Day, the change will be postponed one week to Tuesday November 17th.

This change is being implemented in coordination with the Maryland Emergency Management Agency, Garrett County Emergency Management, and Cecil County Department of Emergency Services.  This change will enable the NWS to provide more efficient weather services to the State of Maryland by having a single NWS office provide forecast and warning services for all of western Maryland and the entire Interstate 95 corridor within Maryland. 

Those who have software to decode or process NWS forecasts and warnings for Garrett and Cecil will need to change the origination office code from PHI (Philadelphia) or PBZ (Pittsburgh), to LWX (Baltimore/Washington). More information on that is described in the Service Change Notice issued on April 29, and linked here. This change will be transparent to NOAA Weather Radio users.

For river level forecasts, there will be no changes for Garrett County. NWS Baltimore/Washington has, and will continue to provide river level forecasts and warnings for the North Branch of the Potomac River at Kitzmiller, Maryland (KITM2) in Garrett County.  For Cecil County, NWS Baltimore/Washington will assume responsibility for river forecasts and warnings for the Susquehanna River at Conowingo Dam (CNWM2), as well as tidal forecasts and warnings for the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal at Chesapeake City (CHCM2).

Those in Garrett and Cecil Counties with social media interests should add the NWS Baltimore/Washington Twitter link @NWS_BaltWash and Facebook page NWSBaltWash.  The local office webpage for the two counties will become https://www.weather.gov/lwx.   The public phone number for NWS Baltimore/Washington is 703-996-2200. Note that this phone number is planned to change by the end of the year due to an upcoming change in our phone system. More information about that will be forthcoming.

Any questions on this change can be directed to Chris Strong, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office at [email protected]

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Mentioned we might get some interesting North Atlantic weather later in October,  and it appears we may indeed get a deep bomb cyclone to form there near the 27 th., however, the exact outcome and lowest pressure are still uncertain. The 00Z GFS looks too extreme.

 

 

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What once looked like a chilly air mass later this month has now turned into more of the same with cold fading and warmth returning. 

Some asked when this new era of less snowy winters and generally warmer weather started here, well this post by bluewave is an eye opener. 

I still feel that 2016 was a turning point. 

from bluewave

<

It has been the only cooler than average part of the US since the Super El Niño in 2016.

7202061F-3EFB-4206-A117-9FAEC68F753C.png.87e54654cd8e378d33eefd74e63489a0.png
0510EC82-7D07-4C50-A3A8-7A2BF84FAFBA.png.e83e11bf7b67be3f19c844418e5b7ae8.png

>

 

 

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On 10/14/2020 at 5:48 AM, CAPE said:

If the Euro/EPS is correct, our cool down will be brief, with a return to relatively toasty temps by mid next week.

 

On 10/14/2020 at 7:27 AM, WxUSAF said:

Euro and, to some extent the ggem, dump the energy out west and don’t progress it through. Gfs and gefs keep things more progressive so we get periodic cold shots.

Euro won. Mid to upper 70s the rest of the week.

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Interesting read from LWX AFD this morning about next week... talks about high temps from upper 40s to 70s depending upon boundary position... and then has an eyebrow raising last sentence

Thereafter, forecast spread and resultant uncertainty increases
substantially within both the GEFS and EPS. The synoptic scale
pattern across North America has reasonably good agreement between
different model solutions, with troughing expected to hold across
the center of the CONUS and ridging remaining in place off the East
Coast. That will place us in southwesterly flow aloft between the
trough and the ridge. The aforementioned frontal boundary will
stall nearby, with a strong thermal contrast existing across that
boundary. Depending on the exact positioning of the boundary, highs
could range anywhere from the 70s to the 50s on Sunday, with
anywhere from the 70s to upper 40s possible on Monday. Chances for
showers will also be dependent on the position of the frontal
boundary, but it currently appears that locations across
northwestern portions of the forecast area will stand the greatest
chance to see precipitation. By later Monday into Monday Night, a
shortwave disturbance will start to descend down the backside of the
trough over the center of the country, before tracking toward the
east. This disturbance could potentially set the stage for a high
impact weather event locally toward the middle portions of next week.

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31 minutes ago, yoda said:

Interesting read from LWX AFD this morning about next week... talks about high temps from upper 40s to 70s depending upon boundary position... and then has an eyebrow raising last sentence

 

 

Its way out there, but this could be a hefty rain producer, with some potential for severe, and maybe some snow on the backside in the western highlands.

gfs_uv250_us_35.png

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Out vacationing on Chincoteague this week. Thanks to online schooling we can do a get away in October. And renting a house to stay distanced. After the fog burned off around noon turned into a an absolutely beautiful day for October 20th. Headed out to the beach around 3. Never thought it would be near 70 on Assateague. The Miss J's were wading in the ocean and we took a nice long walk up the beach. Thought we were going to get a nice sunset but the marine layer rolled on in. We are on the bay side up the neck.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

3 major globals all got even slower with the boundary moving east this weekend and next week. Now they cutoff or nearly cutoff the trough in the Southwest. Depending where it sets up, we could get a bunch of rain or a lot of warm/cloudy days.

Afternoon AFD from Mt Holly-

The relatively quiet weather continues into early Saturday before the front finally approaches later Saturday bringing a chance of showers arriving from west to east late Saturday into Saturday night. Beyond this time the forecast grows increasingly uncertain as there are differences between the forecast models and from one model run to the next. But in the big picture, the baroclinic zone looks to set up along the east coast through early to mid next week as the front washes out or stalls over the area. Additional waves look to move north along it bringing chances for showers/rain most days as the pattern becomes more active and wetter.

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And 18z gfs flipped back to more progressive and a much colder look next week. Should be interesting at least. 

This winter is going to give us stomach ulcers.  I can see it already. Just give me a white Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas and I will be fine.  

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41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This winter is going to give us stomach ulcers.  I can see it already. Just give me a white Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas and I will be fine.  

I wouldn’t mind waking up young, tall and handsome, odds are against reversing reality. I do hope your wish comes true, although I might substitute Valentines Day for Halloween. As always .....

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6 minutes ago, rclab said:

I wouldn’t mind waking up young, tall and handsome, odds are against reversing reality. I do hope your wish comes true, although I might substitute Valentines Day for Halloween. As always .....

I think 89 might have been the last time we had a white thanksgiving and Christmas.  Not sure we have ever had a white Halloween.  But being 2020 you never know.  

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