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October Discobs 2020


George BM
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7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Everything does look a little eastish though

That's weak sauce, and not the main show. I am east, and not even a tenth here, which was exactly the forecast for today.

Look to the south-southwest. That's the juice from the remnants of Delta moving in,  and it will interact with the stalled front. Unfortunately the heavier stuff may fall over this way(dont need it) but there still should be a good soaking for DC-BWI and the NW burbs.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Winds have really picked up here over the last hour. That easterly flow is getting going.

More battering surf for the South Jersey Shore .

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7am update...VAD wind profiles and surface obs across the region
are indicating the low level jet is stronger than initially
forecasted and thus I`ve increased the intensity of the winds
and wind gusts across the region. This has lead to an upgrade
from SCA to a Gale Warning for portions of the coastal waters as
the low level jet should continue to increase in intensity over
the next couple of hours.

Widespread rain continues to fall over the region this morning
and will continue through much of the day today. A strong
easterly low level jet is pushing into the region which will
continue to produce modest rainfall over the next couple of
hours. Current accumulation totals are running around 1 to 1.5"
across DelMarVa and southern NJ. Based on hires guidance I
anticipate we`ll continue to see some 0.1-0.2" an hour rain
rates over the next 3-6 hours hours across DelMarVa and
southeastern NJ. Further north and west the impacts of high
pressure seem to be winning out as rainfall totals are
anticipated to be slightly lower than initial forecasted the
past couple of days.
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Taking advantage of the -NAO and - AO, along with other factors,  this forecast from the GEFS makes sense with a cooler East and warmer West, at leasr for a couple weeks.  

But, notice how the deepest cold  ( and highest HDD ) remains to our West during the next couple weeks.   

Looking at recent Octobers there seems to be a connection with the warmer Western Atlantic SSTs  providing warmth near the coastal plain deeper into October.  see here: courtesy 

Image

Later into the month,  the AO and NAO may start to trend positive.  Meanwhile, ,according to the CFSv2  and the GEFS models ( bias correction not applied ) the PV looks to remain near seasonal norms moving ever so slightly up along the path of the ERA5 Mean. 

 

 

CFSv2

 

 

Ensemble plume

 

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