Wonderdog Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Chilly rain and 44 in Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Temp has really dropped since the rain started falling. 44 now. 0.21" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 @losetoa6 Looking at the radar it looks like M/D line will miss out on much of the rain today. Hopefully we get a deluge later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: Temp has really dropped since the rain started falling. 44 now. 0.21" Impressive. Rain not making it across the C&D Canal presently. Chilly out though. Huge leaf drop yesterday in my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Looking ahead to November the JMA is a bit warmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 26 minutes ago, frd said: Impressive. Rain not making it across the C&D Canal presently. Chilly out though. Huge leaf drop yesterday in my area. Yeah I spent a couple hours yesterday morning blowing and mulching leaves. Today It looks like I never did anything lol. It will be a perpetual thing over the next several weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I spent a couple hours yesterday morning blowing and mulching leaves. Today It looks like I never did anything lol. It will be a perpetual thing over the next several weeks. I know that feeling @CAPE. I spent Friday all day on the yard, today it looks like early Friday morning, only difference being they (the leaves) are now wet.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: 0.00" so far 2-4" (rain) for your yard late week. Book it. Lol at the GFS op the last few runs. At least it got a clue and now has snow in N NY and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 50 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Atmospheric memory? Really simple question here from someone who is not as smart as most of you are here....... Is it possible that the atmospheric memory theory is more likely caused by the overall conditions of the ground soil? Couldn't an area which hasn't received a lot of rain recently and has a very dry ground soil constitution (like the Manchester and Stephens City in the recent past) have issues with future precipitation unlike those which have currently, consistently hit the jackpot, like any area southeast of 95? Could those areas like Bowie, Prince Frederick and even Greensboro which have recently had higher rates of precip have an advantage because the ground is more saturated....thus allowing incoming fronts to draw from that moisture and continually/more easily develop rain? I've never taken any classes in meteorology, so feel free to poke fun if this is a dumb question. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 minute ago, toolsheds said: Really simple question here from someone who is not as smart as most of you are here....... Is it possible that the atmospheric memory theory is more likely caused by the overall conditions of the ground soil? Couldn't an area which hasn't received a lot of rain recently and has a very dry ground soil constitution (like the Manchester and Stephens City in the recent past) have issues with future precipitation unlike those which have currently, consistently hit the jackpot, like any area southeast of 95? Could those areas like Bowie, Prince Frederick and even Greensboro which have recently had higher rates of precip have an advantage because the ground is more saturated....thus allowing incoming fronts to draw from that moisture and continually/more easily develop rain? I've never taken any classes in meteorology, so feel free to poke fun if this is a dumb question. :-) Not a dumb question, and there does seem to be something to the 'drought begets drought' idea. It's possible soil conditions play into it, but imo it's much more likely a function of the general pattern. The mechanisms for large scale ascent and moisture advection should largely overcome antecedent soil conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 0.74" so far this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Soil moisture certainly has an effect, but I think it’s more of warm season phenomenon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 0.40" here so far. Just some very light rain/drizzle currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I agree ...soil conditions probably a very small variable that would be too subtle to have a meaningful impact in real time most likely. Maybe a real large severe drought that was very long lived and covered 100s of Square miles possibly then ? I mostly was poking fun at Justin Berk for coining the atmospheric memory phrase . At least I think it was him lol You forgot mention "stickage" as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not a dumb question, and there does seem to be something to the 'drought begets drought' idea. It's possible soil conditions play into it, but imo it's much more likely a function of the general pattern. The mechanisms for large scale ascent and moisture advection should largely overcome antecedent soil conditions. Thinking our area benefits from the percieved boundary interacting with robust WAR and numerous tropical systems, either directly or indirectly. Record dews again this past summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Just about 0.5" now. A dreary Sunday. Midnight high of 57 with a current temp of 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 A 6a high of 40 and currently down to 36 with a stiff ESE wind. 0.14” of rain on the day. If only it was a few degrees cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: A 6a high of 40 and currently down to 36 with a stiff ESE wind. 0.14” of rain on the day. If only it was a few degrees cooler. With that wind direction, you'd probably need more than a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 0.76” down here around Fredericksburg, low clouds mist at 45 degrees at the moment. A dreary Sunday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: .08" lol. Dropped to 43 when it actually rained . Up to 45 now . Definitely chilly. We were in Gettysburg last night hiking the battlefields for ghosts and stopped now at your local watering hole, Brewery Fire. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 0.55" 47 F Raw, damp day. Nice to see that upper ridge building back already. 70 tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 45F and .55" for the day. Still a cold drizzle here. Wife and I just came in from 45min soaking in the hot tub. Felt like winter in the air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 0.4” on the day. Temp up to 37 (should continue to rise overnight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Looks like Zeta will be nearby on Thursday evening per the 11pm map tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: .15" grand total. This doesn't cut it . Hopefully late week delivers . Pretty amazing "run" you are on up there. Late week looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Going to be too far away to amount to much for us. Too bad, I'd love to have some 50+ knot gusts out of the E or NE to help with some trees that need to come down! These ivy wrapped conifers are a NIGHTMARE. They'd probably tolerate 100MPH out of the east but 55 out of the NW and they'd fall through the pool house. No thanks to Mr. Murphy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 0.39" for the day, 1.12" two day total, 3.61" for October and 54.83" for the year. The ground is mushy once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Looks like the latest track puts remnants south of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Getting some unexpected light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Getting some unexpected light rain I was expecting a warmer, sunnier day than what we’ve seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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