October Banter 2020

[toolsheds]

5 hours ago, RDM said:

I remember when we hit 1000 for the first time in 1972 (yes, I'm old).  There was a debate on whether we'd EVER hit 2000, which took 15 years.  Your at 33,000+ now.  What's next, 50k?

Trading has been wild in the past 9 months.  I work for a large retail brokerage who was just purchased by one based in San Fran.   It took about 36 years for our firm to hit 1 million trades a day.  It took about 3 years to hit 2 million.  Then 4 days later we hit 3 million.  And 2 weeks later we eclipsed at 5 million.  That was all pre-merger, and it has normalized back to between 2-3 million trades per day.  

 

I totally agree that we are waiting for it to eventually correct because it is so overinflated.  When you have Zoom being worth more than IBM, there is something wrong with the markets. 

[WxUSAF]

It was really quiet here. We went out for about 1.5 hours, but not many kids out. 

[CAPE]

No one comes to my house.

Probably all those threatening signs I have at the end of the driveway.

[CAPE]

Even the Jehovah's Witnesses stopped coming.

[NorthArlington101]

Nobody out and about in Charlottesville, but that's normal(ish). Usually everyone trick-or-treats on the Lawn -- its an absolutely amazing event and the kids get away with candy robbery. Very little neighborhood action, at least this close to the University.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Nobody out and about in Charlottesville, but that's normal(ish). Usually everyone trick-or-treats on the Lawn -- its an absolutely amazing event and the kids get away with candy robbery. Very little neighborhood action, at least this close to the University.

Just passed through Wardensville WV about 6:30 and they were have a Halloween festival. It’s a small town but it looked like the whole town was out there. Kids everywhere dressed in costume. Looked like fun. Good for them I say.

[NorthArlington101]

Just passed through Wardensville WV about 6:30 and they were have a Halloween festival. It’s a small town but it looked like the whole town was out there. Kids everywhere dressed in costume. Looked like fun. Good for them I say.

I definitely think Halloween can be done safely! I’ve seen some creative distribution methods on Twitter. Hope that kids everywhere are loading up on candy while taking appropriate precautions.

[George BM]

Yeah. Not a soul at my house yet as of 8:46pm. I usually get between 20 and 40 treat-or-trickers a year.

I'm feeling really dumb buying two bags of candy. (~90 pieces of various chocolate candy total) 

[MN Transplant]

Our neighborhood was pretty active.  Our street had a mini parade with about 20 kids.  Many people set candy out on the front stoop or on tables.  My daughter cleaned up, and now we have to figure out a way to ration it for the next month.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Kinda funny to me that people are ok going through a drive through and being handed a bag of food but are uncomfortable with being handed candy.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, George BM said:

Yeah. Not a soul at my house yet as of 8:46pm. I usually get between 20 and 40 treat-or-trickers a year.

I'm feeling really dumb buying two bags of candy. (~90 pieces of various chocolate candy total) 

I can give you my address and you can always send that candy to me 

[RDM]

4 hours ago, toolsheds said:

Trading has been wild in the past 9 months.  I work for a large retail brokerage who was just purchased by one based in San Fran.   It took about 36 years for our firm to hit 1 million trades a day.  It took about 3 years to hit 2 million.  Then 4 days later we hit 3 million.  And 2 weeks later we eclipsed at 5 million.  That was all pre-merger, and it has normalized back to between 2-3 million trades per day.  

 

I totally agree that we are waiting for it to eventually correct because it is so overinflated.  When you have Zoom being worth more than IBM, there is something wrong with the markets. 

Yea, ok, but...  It's hard to compare IBM to Zoom.  IBM is not the powerhouse in their market segment they used to be.  There's a lot more competition out there in the mainframe market; that to some degree IBM once owned.  

The value of Zoom has exponentially grew largely due to COVID and the growth of virtual based activity - WFH and Academia being the two main factors.  Before COVID, probably only a fraction of the current Zoom user base had heard of them.  Once we get COVID behind us, it will be interesting to see what happens to Zoom's value.  Overall, it's still amazing stock market is even close to where it's at after everything the US and the global market as a whole has been through with COVID.  We've gone through 3 quarters of quarterly reporting in the COVID era.  Will be interesting to see what happens when the next quarter reports come in relative to the ongoing resurgence of COVID.  

 

[nj2va]

44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Kinda funny to me that people are ok going through a drive through and being handed a bag of food but are uncomfortable with being handed candy.

Or being crowded at the grocery store/Target/Walmart....or at a rally/protest....etc.   Lots of head scratching moments.

[A777]

My first year not trick-or-treating..   Had about 20 kids take candy from the bag we left out , leaving us with around 200 pieces of candy 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Happy Halloween, everyone!  Here's a "blue" Blue Moon for you...the 2nd full moon this month.  Tinkered with the white balance to give it this effect:

[Jebman]

Take a good look at this pic. Because this, is what the entire Mid Atlantic is gonna look like in the Epic Winter of 2020-2021! Minus the deer, or moose, or whatever that animal is. This deer should become the 2020-2021 Winter Mascot!

 

[Jebman]

One thing I wanted to mention, about Central TX where I actually live.

You stay down here long enough, you get spoiled ROTTEN by mild weather. I AM spoiled rotten right now. Our normal high/low is 75/55.

What i would like to know is why on earth, are we having such a hard time getting the south winds down here that we Texans love?

Why is it so damn cold all the time? We FINALLY made it to 77 degrees today, normal high is 75. But the damned dewpoint is still a frigid 39!

Where is our south wind, Gulf advection? Our dews should be 60 degrees this time of year lmao!

BESIDES, I want it hot down here, so the Mid Atlantic gets the TROUGH, frigid weather, and SNOW!

I will willingly take 95 degrees, with 73 dewpoints all winter down here, if it will help the Mid Atlantic get Vodka Cold and repeated torrential shellackings of snow!

You can take that to the Bank!

[toolsheds]

9 hours ago, RDM said:

ea, ok, but...  It's hard to compare IBM to Zoom.  IBM is not the powerhouse in their market segment they used to be.  There's a lot more competition out there in the mainframe market; that to some degree IBM once owned.  

The value of Zoom has exponentially grew largely due to COVID and the growth of virtual based activity - WFH and Academia being the two main factors.  Before COVID, probably only a fraction of the current Zoom user base had heard of them.  Once we get COVID behind us, it will be interesting to see what happens to Zoom's value.  Overall, it's still amazing stock market is even close to where it's at after everything the US and the global market as a whole has been through with COVID.  We've gone through 3 quarters of quarterly reporting in the COVID era.  Will be interesting to see what happens when the next quarter reports come in relative to the ongoing resurgence of COVID.

I don't disagree that Covid was the main factor in making a company like Zoom take off, or that IBM has lost some marketshare due to competetion.   The point I was trying to make is that the markets are so overinflated that a very diversified, stable company which has been a staple of the Dow for decades can be worth less than a relatively new company which has a niche product offering and has been in existence for a fraction of the time.  This started with the tech bubble back in the 90s and those major daily price swings are what started to drive the markets on this strong upward trend.

I remember the day Netscape had their IPO.  It was supposed to IPO at $28 dollar range.  The IPO price actually started trading at $75.  The price shortly after the IPO rose quickly to the $125 range, where I had a friend buy some.  By the end of the day it closed at $56.  He was devastated.  This is when the tech stocks started to appear, came in highly overprices and then disappeared within a few years.  There are a lot which are able to survive, but the initial hype for a lot of these which have a very narrow product offering usually drives the prices up way too fast, and when the they no longer show the promise of future growth, there is no need for them and they slowly fade away until the next shiny object comes around. 

I really am not a fan of all of the greed the markets drive.  It's kind of hypocritical that I work in the finance industry where everything is about making the next buck, but I like working for a Retail Brokerage firm where I can advocate for main street investors like you and me.  The markets are driven by those large institutional firms and once they decide that there is no use (can no longer profit off of them) for certain stocks, they are thrown aside and forgotten. 

 

 

[RDM]

23 minutes ago, toolsheds said:

I don't disagree that Covid was the main factor in making a company like Zoom take off, or that IBM has lost some marketshare due to competetion.   The point I was trying to make is that the markets are so overinflated that a very diversified, stable company which has been a staple of the Dow for decades can be worth less than a relatively new company which has a niche product offering and has been in existence for a fraction of the time.  This started with the tech bubble back in the 90s and those major daily price swings are what started to drive the markets on this strong upward trend.

I remember the day Netscape had their IPO.  It was supposed to IPO at $28 dollar range.  The IPO price actually started trading at $75.  The price shortly after the IPO rose quickly to the $125 range, where I had a friend buy some.  By the end of the day it closed at $56.  He was devastated.  This is when the tech stocks started to appear, came in highly overprices and then disappeared within a few years.  There are a lot which are able to survive, but the initial hype for a lot of these which have a very narrow product offering usually drives the prices up way too fast, and when the they no longer show the promise of future growth, there is no need for them and they slowly fade away until the next shiny object comes around. 

I really am not a fan of all of the greed the markets drive.  It's kind of hypocritical that I work in the finance industry where everything is about making the next buck, but I like working for a Retail Brokerage firm where I can advocate for main street investors like you and me.  The markets are driven by those large institutional firms and once they decide that there is no use (can no longer profit off of them) for certain stocks, they are thrown aside and forgotten. 

 

 

Yes, I see your points.  This reflects the shift in the US from a manufacturing base to a high-tech focus, which exploded in the 90's.  The US Steel industry used to be part of the American manufacturing might.  Currently our largest steel company is #14 on the world list, the next US company on the list is 27th.  Sad.     

I grew up IVO Dayton, Ohio, which was a very diverse manufacturing city dating back to the late 1800's.  In the 70's and 80's, Dayton was full of large factories run by NCR, IBM, GM and others, largely supporting the automotive industry.  Delco, GM Engines, the S-10, countless other hard industry products were built in Dayton.  I moved to NOVA in 85 and then from 88 to 2009 spent 15+ years overseas.  When I went back to Dayton in 2000 after a lengthy hiatus, the sight of all the closed factories was heartbreaking.  From 1990 to 2000, the Dayton manufacturing economy was wiped out by out by outsourcing and certain trade decisions of the administration the 90's is unfortunately known for (trying to avoid tripping the political breaker here).  

Back in the 70's and 80's, GM was the flag bearer stock on the DOW, a role it held for decades.  Now Google, Apple, Amazon and Facebook lead the way, albeit with Aramco at the top of the value list.  And nobody can touch Aramco because the Saudis have it locked down by only allowing the trade of Aramco stock on their home market.  Agree with the sediment many stocks are overvalued as much of their value is determined by a theoretical value and not the sales of a commodity in the traditional sense (especially FB, Google etc).  Apple and Amazon are more traditional in their value is also driven by sales, or the anticipation of sales in the future, yet FB and Google are largely theoretical.  Wonder what the balance will be like in 10 years?  

[MN Transplant]

3 hours ago, toolsheds said:

I don't disagree that Covid was the main factor in making a company like Zoom take off, or that IBM has lost some marketshare due to competetion.   The point I was trying to make is that the markets are so overinflated that a very diversified, stable company which has been a staple of the Dow for decades can be worth less than a relatively new company which has a niche product offering and has been in existence for a fraction of the time.  This started with the tech bubble back in the 90s and those major daily price swings are what started to drive the markets on this strong upward trend.

I remember the day Netscape had their IPO.  It was supposed to IPO at $28 dollar range.  The IPO price actually started trading at $75.  The price shortly after the IPO rose quickly to the $125 range, where I had a friend buy some.  By the end of the day it closed at $56.  He was devastated.  This is when the tech stocks started to appear, came in highly overprices and then disappeared within a few years.  There are a lot which are able to survive, but the initial hype for a lot of these which have a very narrow product offering usually drives the prices up way too fast, and when the they no longer show the promise of future growth, there is no need for them and they slowly fade away until the next shiny object comes around. 

I really am not a fan of all of the greed the markets drive.  It's kind of hypocritical that I work in the finance industry where everything is about making the next buck, but I like working for a Retail Brokerage firm where I can advocate for main street investors like you and me.  The markets are driven by those large institutional firms and once they decide that there is no use (can no longer profit off of them) for certain stocks, they are thrown aside and forgotten. 

 

 

Diversified can be a double-edged sword.  Look at GE.