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October 2020 Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, let’s get all out of the precipitation out of the way now and snap back dry for DJF.

:axe:

Ha. Well, hopefully the rubber band doesn’t snap back to dryness THAT fast. Let’s snap it back for April-May. Although a N Stream dominated winter can present its challenges with precip it also has the cold nearby...so we roll the dice.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Weenie

Just misses the phase

....

Good ... err, I guess?  

depends on what dystopian needle the addict is after - 

We've implicitly floated two plausible ( and highly likely! ) scenarios...  a hurricane composed of snow and not rain; a hurricane 

This gem above is the latter - and...in order to get a 'real' hurricane this late in the year, you want steering flow without trough injecting it's poison and this run ... being 10+ days of course makes it highly likely that it's going to pull off that deliciously rarified scenario. 

I do find it strange that that of the last 28 cycles of this model ... ( 7 someodd days worth ..), may 1/4 of the runs have been showing up with that idealized success story - heh... 

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