CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Just now, Whineminster said: sulfur smell? Yeah nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Larry Cosgrove Why the storm on Halloween Week is so important.... As the ECMWF series seems to be falling in with the potentially dire GFS outline for a major East Coast storm the week of Halloween, I thought it smart to discuss what the big deal is if the disturbance verifies. 1) With a fairly amplified +PNA alignment at 500MB, the chance for a great deal of polar air from Canada to cover the eastern half of the country is very high. The nocturnal frost line Oct 31 - Nov 2 could reach down to the Interstate 40 cities, east of the Rocky Mountains. 2) This system will NOT be a major snow maker. Most of the energy and moisture with the combinant (tropical + cold core) system will be along and to the right of the storm track, which I suspect will be quite close to the Atlantic shoreline above Norfolk VA. There could be some snow shower/squall threats in the Great Lakes and Appalachia, however. 3) While it is too soon to determine likely pressure and wind elements with this feature, the consistency of the GFS series for the development and general motion of low pressure from the Caribbean Sea is startling. A blend of the 1991 and 2012 oceanic storm analogs remains viable. 4) If this gyre does form, it will NOT be an indicator of what the upcoming winter will be like. It is just too early! Deal with nothing - Cosgrove 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Deal with nothing - Cosgrove I'm not sure what your intentions are with this "snark" ? But, I happen to agree with him regarding that particular spatial-temporal range . I just droned on about it in my own way over in the tropical thread. But to paraphrase: There is a significant modal change in the PNA ...going from a local time-scale nadir to a concerted rise through neutral .. ending at a +1 SD out there toward week two. Going from -2 to +1 in a domain space the represents the shear girth and mass of atmosphere that the PNA does, is a huge momentum signal - just sayn' To add conceptually ... the alarm clock for seasonal/climate teleonnector significance has gone off. The PNA comes to life now as useful corrective tool - I wouldn't put it lightly to have every GEF member there is, signaling support for the operational version. Then, to have the disparate ECM run landing both in trend and single runs now on top that same sort of notion of a deep eastern N/A trough ... Heh...I don't think that is discountable out of hand - ... I realize you employ no meteorological skill as an impish sort of internet clown that likes to poke social media hornet nests like a deviant Trump rally drama queen... but, sometimes you gotta check your going modes at the door and realize that in this reception hall of reality, "you can't always get what you want" ...This strikes me as a wonderful opportunity for you to demonstrate real growth and even a quasi ethical approach to the engagement here - 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mist has turned into fine droplet shwrs. Stay safe. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 All the models are really keying on the elevated areas for accumulating snows in VT, NNH and NW ME, Here's the 12z 3K Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Removing any potential tropical system from the Caribbean from the equation, that trough as modeled for day 10 could be fun. Should create a strong storm system in itself. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Removing any potential tropical system from the Caribbean from the equation, that trough as modeled for day 10 could be fun. Should create a strong storm system in itself. You have to realize ... once the provincial has been exposed to the next higher order dramatic circumstance, anything less ...even if the lesser value is a 960 mb coastal flood bombing earthquake triggering pandemic is just an utter crap out piece of shit forgettable failure - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: All the models are really keying on the elevated areas for accumulating snows in VT, NNH and NW ME, Here's the 12z 3K Nam. Wx2fish will help verify Coos county NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Wx2fish will help verify Coos county NH. I have a couple of connections in the Jackman/Eustis area that I will have to check with tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 That rain looks like it means business about to submerge the sered Mad Maxian dystopian wasteland known as CT .... I bet by mid afternoon, they are en route to doubling modeled rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure what your intentions are with this "snark" ? But, I happen to agree with him regarding that particular spatial-temporal range . I just droned on about it in my own way over in the tropical thread. But to paraphrase: There is a significant modal change in the PNA ...going from a local time-scale nadir to a concerted rise through neutral .. ending at a +1 SD out there toward week two. Going from -2 to +1 in a domain space the represents the shear girth and mass of atmosphere that the PNA does, is a huge momentum signal - just sayn' To add conceptually ... the alarm clock for seasonal/climate teleonnector significance has gone off. The PNA comes to life now as useful corrective tool - I wouldn't put it lightly to have every GEF member there is, signaling support for the operational version. Then, to have the disparate ECM run landing both in trend and single runs now on top that same sort of notion of a deep eastern N/A trough ... Heh...I don't think that is discountable out of hand - ... I realize you employ no meteorological skill as an impish sort of internet clown that likes to poke social media hornet nests like a deviant Trump rally drama queen... but, sometimes you gotta check your going modes at the door and realize that in this reception hall of reality, "you can't always get what you want" ...This strikes me as a wonderful opportunity for you to demonstrate real growth and even a quasi ethical approach to the engagement here - It’s like you’ve been living in moms basement for the last 15 years. You gotta get out and meet people and interact with society. If you did , you’d know where - Deal with it came from 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wx2fish will help verify Coos county NH. you're so jealous of him that he's always up there and you're stuck in soggy Wetmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 49 minutes ago, dryslot said: All the models are really keying on the elevated areas for accumulating snows in VT, NNH and NW ME, Here's the 12z 3K Nam. Earn your turns weekend at Sugarloaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Raining all morning here. It comes it bunches when it snaps back. The rubber band theory on full display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 have some peaks of sun here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 rain has commenced here...temps down from 65 to 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, Whineminster said: you're so jealous of him that he's always up there and you're stuck in soggy Wetmouth Yep. We jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: rain has commenced here...temps down from 65 to 57 I should have said it was damp all morning and now the heavier rains have moved in. Regardless, the drought is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I should have said it was damp all morning and now the heavier rains have moved in. Regardless, the drought is over. Yep the 2 events this week will have delivered a much needed 2-4 inches of rain to most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 NAM is pretty wet here.... close to 2”. Gfs is like .5”... pretty big differences this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Those guys have nothing on Centralia, PA. That place will be burning for another century or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Siggy snow on the 12z GFS for dem der hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Hum. 12Z GFS faily bullish on this ending as snow in the Whites. Even down in my area perhaps a few mangled flakes as it ends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM is pretty wet here.... close to 2”. Gfs is like .5”... pretty big differences this close in Someone may get a min like that. Tough to say where. I still think a 2 part/area jack. Western CT and MA into adjacent VT and NH. Could pull 2+. I’ll be happy with an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Someone may get a min like that. Tough to say where. I still think a 2 part/area jack. Western CT and MA into adjacent VT and NH. Could pull 2+. I’ll be happy with an inch. Well see. Pretty much all other guidance is at least an inch here, and the 3k NaM seems to hint at the two Jack areas... with the second being SE Mass somewhere? Ill be happy with an inch or more.... .5” would be pretty disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Mitch's area in S.VT looks like it might do some accumulating snow, they probably have one of the better shots in Vermont at this point. Large area of 2,000ft elevation, and precip lingers there after thicknesses lower enough. Could see Mitchy with a coating to 2" tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Well see. Pretty much all other guidance is at least an inch here, and the 3k NaM seems to hint at the two Jack areas... with the second being SE Mass somewhere? Ill be happy with an inch or more.... .5” would be pretty disappointing Yeah I think second area is ern CT into adjacent MA and RI. Maybe SE areas included. I agree though most areas .75”-1.5” at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Mitch's area in S.VT looks like it might do some accumulating snow, they probably have one of the better shots in Vermont at this point. Large area of 2,000ft elevation, and precip lingers there after thicknesses lower enough. Could see Mitchy with a couple wet inches tomorrow morning. Yeah wouldn’t be surprised to see a few hair buns covered in snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Someone may get a min like that. Tough to say where. I still think a 2 part/area jack. Western CT and MA into adjacent VT and NH. Could pull 2+. I’ll be happy with an inch. I bet the wife wouldn't be. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Weenie Just misses the phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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