powderfreak Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: On what? Haven’t you wanted water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: On what? Water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Is the Para-GFS still a thing? I though that was all migrated into the standard model months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Water Wind ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Direct hit from a late season hurricane. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Direct hit from a late season hurricane. Book it! Not that there's much value or use in criticizing that particular solution ...considering lead-time, to mention product profiling... etc.. but, that solution does seem to exceed the planetary quota of potential energy - jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 It’s two weeks out...but that big storm scenario has been kicking around for quite a while now in some form or another, for many runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s two weeks out...but that big storm scenario has been kicking around for quite a while now in some form or another, for many runs? 12z out to hr 300. Cat 5 this run in the Caribbean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: It’s two weeks out...but that big storm scenario has been kicking around for quite a while now in some form or another, for many runs? I almost think it might be 'seasonal modeling' phenomenon, this kind of scenario of a home grown Caribbean TC getting evacuated into an evolving trough amplification. Long words for that happening every autumn. Going back years...I remember back in 2003, the 10 days before the Dec 5-7th snowstorm .. the GGEM of the day was pulling a fully recognized TC object across Cuba, and phasing over the mid Atlantic. That did not happen... It held onto the thinking for several cycles. The TC did materialize but it shredded out into the Atlantic remaining uninvolved - it always interested me that it saw the TC, and so saw the mid Atlantic troughing ...but failed to materialize their interaction. Years later, we had a Sandy ...which was the same thing, .. pulled out of the deeper tropics...across Cuba... only it actually happened. And in between those extremes it seems some half the years we can't get from late August until early December in the modeling without going through this film reel - Thing is, the models aren't there to like "make things up" .... I mean, it's not like some wizard behind the curtain going, 'imagine if this happened' - ...they are actually only processing things that possibly can happen. They are not physically impossible - in that sense. It's just that there are an innumerable other possibilities more likely to occur, when looking at exteded time ranges...and likely to emerge along the way, and then their realities supplant whatever it was originally modeled. So back to the first sentence... it seems this is built-in sort of risk of autumn, that troughs of early season ambition induce steering that pulls a home-grown on up. It is climatological to have an Octo/Novie season in those regions of the tropics...and, conceptually, early cool snaps take place. Duh, having them concurrent on a weather map is probably just roulettes - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Is the Para-GFS still a thing? I though that was all migrated into the standard model months ago. Only when it shows you the solution you’re looking for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Only when it shows you the solution you’re looking for. Anthony would post the 2142z trapezoidal perpendicular GFS if it showed a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Congrats guys want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Sign me up for that. We’d only need a fancy cool storm name to remember it by? Maybe the “Great October Gale” or perhaps “Armageddon 2020: This time it’s personal” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Man ... tomorrow and Thursday makes today's pricey shit-show almost worth it... If the NAM's profiled numerology is right - The FOUS has Logan supporting 77 for high temperature in JJAS ... not sure about October sun but either way...mild to warm. The wind angled off-shore, and only breezy for a change - not a this proving ground at an emission controls - I hate that. The only way to get 73 F to be chilly on Earth is here in this p.o.s. SNE climate curse. Anyway, ceiling RH < 30% both days? Talkin' euclase emerald skies bathing us in 70+ .. MOS is only 70 to 73 at some typicals but ... not sure if that's climate weighting ... the raw numbers support more ... whatever - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 yeh meanwhile the 12z para GFS explains the concept of not buying into seasonal numerical instability in the models out at 300 hours - poof Something may be there - like I said...they models don't actually "make it up" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Friday morning in Alex's backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Speaking of para GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, MBRI said: Friday morning in Alex's backyard Oh hi there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Euro heh. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 NAM is a paster for PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 8 hours ago, MBRI said: Friday morning in Alex's backyard You allowed frost to touch the roof of the Jeep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Man ... tomorrow and Thursday makes today's pricey shit-show almost worth it... If the NAM's profiled numerology is right - The FOUS has Logan supporting 77 for high temperature in JJAS ... not sure about October sun but either way...mild to warm. The wind angled off-shore, and only breezy for a change - not a this proving ground at an emission controls - I hate that. The only way to get 73 F to be chilly on Earth is here in this p.o.s. SNE climate curse. Anyway, ceiling RH < 30% both days? Talkin' euclase emerald skies bathing us in 70+ .. MOS is only 70 to 73 at some typicals but ... not sure if that's climate weighting ... the raw numbers support more ... whatever - As long as it feels warm in my car....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 18 hours ago, MJO812 said: Congrats guys Thanks but this is better lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 What year was the big Halloween nor'easter? 93? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: What year was the big Halloween nor'easter? 93? 91. Euro has a condo collapser for VT this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 9 hours ago, MarkO said: Speaking of para GFS: Boy time stamp just as Tip said give or take.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro heh. Wow Yeah that’s a lot of snow at the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks but this is better lol Let’s time that for about 5 days later. Trying to avoid a ratter you know. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Getting back to Friday night and Saturday, that is a sweet spot at 700mb in VT. You have a big thermal gradient from west to east. If you want surprise snow, that will do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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