dendrite Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 27° for CON. I wonder what their record is for most 20s for so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: What a bust. Forecast was for a low of 35F... actual 25F. Frozen solid outside. Currently 28F. I figured I must have missed something because I thought the low was only supposed to be around 35-4°-35°. 28° was a little surprising when I woke up. Looks like MPV got down to 26° and even BTV got in on the act, checking in with 30° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looking further ahead, the 2nd half of October looks like there will be some cold shots and that is perhaps the first threat for snow in New England outside of the mountain tops. This is the kind of pattern that could produce something in the typical favored early season spots. Agreed. I have a thread going somewhere over this, probaby scrolled I didn't see that it grabbed much interest. October .. particularly the latter half was timed this way for a long while now actually. There have been subtle and not-so-subtle cues in the total ambrosia of variables supplied to the (teleconnectors + musical tenor of models + near decadal seasonal persistency)/3 equation that = gut feelings... The 00z Euro and GFS have very similar looks on D7 - that's a shocker...these models have not agreed on that late mid/early ext time range since 2004 . heh But, I caution that this look is too much of a good thing? Here we are only mid October and the first bona fide modeled realization of said 'gut feeling' that emerges has to be compressed with screaming velocities. I dunno it really is clear to me that this a hemisphere trying to rush the polar region south, perhaps prematurely, while the south is not yielding. People ( not you .. just in general ) need to get their heads around this - no fun if the gradient's a ton. Even if there is a big ridge in the west, and deep heights over JB, if there's ..I dunno, 12 hypsometric contours circuitously constructing that total wave space, you ain't getting shit - well... there is overrunning and smeared out shear jobs ... But I mean in terms of Norwegian cyclone- model lows. If they can get going ..they tend to be very fast moving and weaker. So one is strong in that hurried bustle and people think that means this is not right - but no...it just means that if the flow were relaxed, the system would have likely been historic. It's always about amounts of mitigation - but I rant That's been typifying our winters too, btw - hello? We have to relax the flow in the heights, ..at least a litte, such that embedded S/Ws can mechanically force - if the wind outside the S/W is already blowing as fast as the S/W, this can't happen - or not as effectively anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: 27° for CON. I wonder what their record is for most 20s for so early in the season. 2020 is up to 5 now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looking further ahead, the 2nd half of October looks like there will be some cold shots and that is perhaps the first threat for snow in New England outside of the mountain tops. This is the kind of pattern that could produce something in the typical favored early season spots. Yeah look at that ridge. Definitely more active anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 2020 is up to 5 now.... What were the dry years in the 1960s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Range: All of New England. Feeds on craft beer. Invasive and can be a pest during the warm season. Multiplies rapidly in humid summers following snowy winters. Very predictable behavior despite it thinking it can outsmart predators. It is the prized meal of the Coastal Mantis (Scooterus Knowsis). Sometimes mates with the cranberry ass borer (Rayus Fortyseventius) producing hot dog shaped larvae. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: That’s wild. It looks like November outside. 90%+ leaf drop around our place. The woods has lots of early-drop ash and basswood but even the maples are mostly bare. Only the 80' oak has more than 1/3 of its foliage. At the same time, there are hillsides near the Sandy River in Farmington with <50% leaf drop and still colorful though short on the reds. Another upper 20s windshield-scraping morning here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What were the dry years in the 1960s? 1963-1966 were the core of it. 1964-1965 was the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We have had several frosts at my house. This morning was probably the most frost though... 33.8F low Yeah I'm on the top of a hill facing south, typically don't frost when others do. Think it should have been a freeze warning last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1963-1966 were the core of it. 1964-1965 was the peak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 all the while... The interesting early leaf show and deposition by some species ... I am wondering how much of that was local seasonal climate forcing, or what still. No idea. I am not particularly well versed in that science and am too lazy - in fact... instead of typing what will probably never be read, I could be researching it. But I was wondering if the smoke inundation at high levels might have dimmed enough UV later August into September to trigger sugar maples? My silver maple is still green, but, my neighborhood oaks are doing something interesting. Normally...they turn uniform purply red and then fell brown ..halloween-ish in time. But a lot have leafs that are spotty brown as a straight transition. So, they are either early or unhealthy - I just think in total, and given enough anecdotal accounts all over the Lakes ...OV,/MA and NE this is a real phenomenon. But, here's the kielbasa question - could this signal an and aggressive winter? I dunno - ... that's definitely going to earn a meritus schnitzel badge but I don't see how a solar cycle min that's supposed to be exceptionally low, dimming from smoke, and aggressive hemispheric posturing to load cold into the mid latitudes ( which might also just be the early book-end thing...but just the same -) ...all combined, I don't see how that doesn't parlay to winter. It could be interesting to see how all this lays out ...because the HC stuff isn't going away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1963-1966 were the core of it. 1964-1965 was the peak. Interesting correlation there to very cold mins early season then... seeing as ‘64 and ‘65 also had 5 days at CON with mins in the 20s so far. Dry air and ground limiting frost/fog and allowing temps to sneak into the 20s with more frequency? There’s definitely something there, it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Interesting correlation there to very cold mins early season then... seeing as ‘64 and ‘65 also had 5 days at CON with mins in the 20s so far. Dry air and ground limiting frost/fog and allowing temps to sneak into the 20s with more frequency? Yeah I'm sure there is absolutely a correlation with the dryness. We all know from a thermodynamic standpoint, the air will radiate heat more efficiently when in a dry environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Last night should have been an easy slam dunk for decoupling. I mean if said "bust" was because folks were being heavily MOS or whatever machine guidance reliant, maybe? Driving around last sunset, having just shed 6 degrees in the previous hour under navy blue sky going black, and a wind already going calm, while the synopsis showing a progressive polar high ridging through the area through dawn... heh, and DPs in the 30s. Keep in mind, long nights and superb radiational cooling will also draw moisture out of the atmosphere and the T/TD will couple up and fall in tandem for a couple of hours. I guess it's a matter of relativity-usage. Bothering to look: NAM MOS (MET) for KFIT was putting up a 35 for that location, and according to Mesowest they were 32. I was 33 here about 10 clicks E on Rt poopie... and had a prysm on my car top and tints of white settled upon my neglected lawns leaf litter this morning. I think the over arcing synoptics could have set up expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Last night should have been an easy slam dunk for decoupling. I mean if said "bust" was because folks were being heavily MOS or whatever machine guidance reliant, maybe? Driving around last sunset, having just shed 6 degrees in the previous hour under navy blue sky going black, and a wind already going calm, while the synopsis showing a progressive polar high ridging through the area through dawn... heh, and DPs in the 30s. Keep in mind, long nights and superb radiational cooling will also draw moisture out of the atmosphere and the T/TD will couple up and fall in tandem for a couple of hours. I guess it's a matter of relativity-usage. Bothering to look: NAM MOS (MET) for KFIT was putting up a 35 for that location, and according to Mesowest they were 32. I was 33 here about 10 clicks E on Rt poopie... and had a prysm on my car top and tints of white settled upon my neglected lawns leaf litter this morning. I think the over arcing synoptics could have set up expectations. For sure probably in your area more, you guys were already clear in the afternoon right? The bust up here was the trapped moisture stratus and wind, that was still prevalent after sundown... NWS went conservative with the cloud cover and wind up here in the mountains. We still had OVC in the OBS until midnight when it went CLR afterward... I think it was just a cloud cover and wind issue, hedging conservative in the mountains with trapped upslope flow moisture. It went clear/calm around midnight and plummeted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah look at that ridge. Definitely more active anyways. Ha, I just mentioned this about an hours or so ago mid month looking wintry possibly in the stein thread, Probably should have stuck my head in here first and echoed Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 I hit 31.1 last night....one of the coldest nights so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Range: All of New England. Feeds on craft beer. Invasive and can be a pest during the warm season. Multiplies rapidly in humid summers following snowy winters. Very predictable behavior despite it thinking it can outsmart predators. It is the prized meal of the Coastal Mantis (Scooterus Knowsis). Sometimes mates with the cranberry ass borer (Rayus Fortyseventius) producing hot dog shaped larvae. Not gonna ask....I knew I should have waited until later in the season to venture into the regional thread. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Crisp, breezy day. Some ice still up on the peaks. Must be brutal up there today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Verified 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Lake effect snow showers possible next weekened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Verified Dang. Didn't Mt. Tom have a nasty microburst a few years back too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Dang. Didn't Mt. Tom have a nasty microburst a few years back too? Yup, almost to the day. https://www.masslive.com/news/2015/10/1_year_later_mount_tom_recover.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Yup, almost to the day. https://www.masslive.com/news/2015/10/1_year_later_mount_tom_recover.html Severe wind haven! I remember that Mt Tom event, isn't there a road that runs through there that got smoked? Or is this photo from that road, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: For sure probably in your area more, you guys were already clear in the afternoon right? The bust up here was the trapped moisture stratus and wind, that was still prevalent after sundown... NWS went conservative with the cloud cover and wind up here in the mountains. We still had OVC in the OBS until midnight when it went CLR afterward... I think it was just a cloud cover and wind issue, hedging conservative in the mountains with trapped upslope flow moisture. It went clear/calm around midnight and plummeted. Oh .. yeah, I suppose whatever it was doin' up ur way. I figured you came down here to my backyard and assessed the situ and then went back up there prior to dawn ... waited it out, and then claimed I - personally - busted. heh Like I did for you - Anyway, I was toolin' around running errands thinking, boy ..are we gon' frost dunnite. Woke up...gee, frosted. Came in here, and naturally assumed everyone shared in the same exposure of elements that was kissed with last night - It was better when SNE had it's own geographic subforum - I got to be way more self-centered and get away with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Love when the only remaining foliage on the trees is generally orange at this point, orange mixed with bare trees... and the Satellite view is definitely also orange. I would say that orange glow areas are in the past peak category while nearby neighboring the orange zone is likely best colors right now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Love when the only remaining foliage on the trees is generally orange at this point, orange mixed with bare trees... and the Satellite view is definitely also orange. I would say that orange glow areas are in the past peak category while nearby neighboring the orange zone is likely best colors right now? Yes, and you can really see that Saharan wasteland locally known as Mt. Tolland, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 57 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Severe wind haven! I remember that Mt Tom event, isn't there a road that runs through there that got smoked? Or is this photo from that road, ha. Yeah, RT. 141 over the mountain was closed for 2 days after the event, and then for several days the following spring for additional clean-up work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Verified Not sure if it was legit, but I heard 100+ mph in the Capital region of NYS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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