October 2020 Discussion

[powderfreak]

Wow, ended up with 1.04” total water from the last 24 hours.

Sneaky soaker as Phin called it.

31F at top of the Gondola this morning, too.

[powderfreak]

I can’t believe the hail off the metal roof at the Gondola is still here this morning, 14 hours later.  There’s several piles of it around the building lol.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Wow, ended up with 1.04” total water from the last 24 hours.

Sneaky soaker as Phin called it.

31F at top of the Gondola this morning, too.

Ended up with .62" at MPV.  The pattern has changed.  It may still be dry in south of here but there is no doubt that things have changed.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Wow, ended up with 1.04” total water from the last 24 hours.

Sneaky soaker as Phin called it.

31F at top of the Gondola this morning, too.

Yep, 1.14” here. It rained all night even with nothing really on radar. 

[CoastalWx]

We rain next week.

[Chrisrotary12]

Congrats on the rain and wind yesterday. I'll enjoy my red flag warning for today.

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

I guess I figured why my power is out.   Guessing I’ll be in the dark awhile.

1 house down from me.  My wife and I each walked by there 15 minutes before the wind hit.

I wonder what killed all the roots on that tree - too much Lesco?     And also wonder how it remained upright as long as it did.

0.14" yesterday, winds gusting close to 30 but no issues beyond a few twigs in the road.  Also happy to see the GFS backing off yesterday's ridiculous QPF, now under 1" for next week instead of 5".  More changes inevitable.

[moneypitmike]

Still in the dark here in Westborough.  Looks like they repowered the line right up to the immediate area as NG say it’s only 10 customers.  No eta on restoration. No work yet in the tree....i I m tempted to break out the Stihl.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Classic October 48 to 60 hours here... 

Reminds me of the 1990s Octobers.  Big turn around in sensible weather over short duration. This cold air mass rolls right out of here post its nadir over the next 18 hours, and Saturday afternoon's 850 layer would support 80+ F if it were summer. 

But, it's October and the sloped sun will starve it of its potential some.   Still, the 12z NAM has 13 to 15 C at 850 mb in a WSW-SW well mixed flow throughout SNE by 18z on that day... which is probably really 25 C in the 2-meter over the typical warm locales.  Probably good for 69 at ORH and 75 as ASH/BED and Rt 9

[powderfreak]

Some light rime icing up high this morning.... 29F with a wind chill of 15F at the top of the Gondola.

[Typhoon Tip]

Course ...it's not really as chilly here is I thought it might be ... I thought this had more of a nicking 48 for a nano second at 2:14 pm sort of look to it but it's actually in the mid 50s .. and some d-sloping may also be contributing. Probably nicking 60 instead.  

Still, we have a garland or two of blue thickness draping through the region !  Woo hoo... progress.   

[dryslot]

14 hours ago, dendrite said:

0.07”. No wind. Yawner.

It was lame.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Some light rime icing up high this morning.... 29F with a wind chill of 15F at the top of the Gondola.

Yep, I have seen glimpses of the same on Adams/Madison. Low clouds hanging on them all morning so can’t get a clear view. 

[powderfreak]

Mangled flurries at 1500ft now.  Really dry air, evap cooling is doing it’s thing to get flurries down this low.

Radar showing some showers popping up now along the Spine.  Heard Bolton Valley at 2100ft had some -SN move through, too.

Just enough moisture to squeeze out some light flurries as it evaporates and dries up on it's way down. 

[PhineasC]

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Mangled flurries at 1500ft now.  Really dry air, evap cooling is doing it’s thing to get flurries down this low.

Radar showing some showers popping up now along the Spine.  Heard Bolton Valley at 2100ft had some -SN move through, too.

Just enough moisture to squeeze out some light flurries as it evaporates and dries up on it's way down. 

Hmmm, a quick 9 holes later this afternoon might not be all that pleasant.

[Whineminster]

4 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Still in the dark here in Westborough.  Looks like they repowered the line right up to the immediate area as NG say it’s only 10 customers.  No eta on restoration. No work yet in the tree....i I m tempted to break out the Stihl.

 

Same..... Still w/0 power here 2.  Good thing the folks have power down the street for a hot shower

[alex]

Getting some sleet/mangled flakes here!

[NorEastermass128]

11 minutes ago, alex said:

Getting some sleet/mangled flakes here!

And so it begins!

[moneypitmike]

Guess who is in the “less than 5” in the outage?  

[alex]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

And so it begins!

Yep. Lasted about 45 seconds so hopefully we will do better the rest of the season 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Guess who is in the “less than 5” in the outage?  

That is great! Congrats Mike . Enjoy 

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, alex said:

Yep. Lasted about 45 seconds so hopefully we will do better the rest of the season 

Ha nice, that’s exactly what I saw earlier.  Flakes lasted about a minute as the ridge line took that hazy white look that’s a tell-tale of snow/virga.... finally hit the surface and was over in a minute lol.  But it wasn’t rain, puts a little hop in your step.

Next check mark is like legit under 5 mile vis snow showers.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ha nice, that’s exactly what I saw earlier.  Flakes lasted about a minute as the ridge line took that hazy white look that’s a tell-tale of snow/virga.... finally hit the surface and was over in a minute lol.  But it wasn’t rain, puts a little hop in your step.

Next check mark is like legit under 5 mile vis snow showers.

A friend of my wife's told her it was snowing in Williamstown earlier.  Not sure I believe it though I guess some graupel is possible

[J.Spin]

19 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Nothing on radar but it is raining pretty good here again. 0.84”

Over-performer here. Hopefully a sign for the winter. Randolph raking. 

I figured that could use a little FYP – you might need to adjust your expectations now that we’re going to be moving into the time of year with potentially more upslope precipitation.  Even over here that type of stuff happens, and we’ve got pretty solid radar coverage of the spine of the Northern Greens and meteorologists at BTV that really focus on fine tuning forecasts in the mountains that are just to their east.  From what I’ve seen, coverage over there in the Whites is tougher because the radar source is farther away and/or there are so many surrounding mountains.  Per that previous discussion, no, you’re probably not going to have a 40” storm sneak up on you out of nowhere in this day and age, but you’re likely to have the potential for a lot of precipitation that might not be visible/expected.  I’m pretty sure Alex has experienced some of that, but it’s one of the reasons folks are excited to have another person reporting out of that area – there’s a lot that goes on that the models and radar don’t necessarily catch.

 

[alex]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I figured that could use a little FYP – you might need to adjust your expectations now that we’re going to be moving into the time of year with potentially more upslope precipitation.  Even over here that type of stuff happens, and we’ve got pretty solid radar coverage of the spine of the Northern Greens and meteorologists at BTV that really focus on fine tuning forecasts in the mountains that are just to their east.  From what I’ve seen, coverage over there in the Whites is tougher because the radar source is farther away and/or there are so many surrounding mountains.  Per that previous discussion, no, you’re probably not going to have a 40” storm sneak up on you out of nowhere in this day and age, but you’re likely to have the potential for a lot of precipitation that might not be visible/expected.  I’m pretty sure Alex has experienced some of that, but it’s one of the reasons folks are excited to have another person reporting out of that area – there’s a lot that goes on that the models and radar don’t necessarily catch.

 

 

Absolutely true. Sometimes the radar is completely clear, sometimes it just looks like a little speck while it snows for hours on end. I've also noticed that there seems to be some sort of gap around the CT river valley - you see snow moving into VT, then sort of dying off in the CT valley and then pick back up here. Not sure if it's a real gap or just a radar issue. IN general, I also find our upslope is usually 30-60 minutes behind yours; if you post that upslope has kicked in or intensified, usually we see that half an hour to an hour later. Just my observations! Also, usually upslope at my location is limited to 1-3" on most days, but very frequent. The big numbers that Mansfield gets are rare here - but then again, they are also very localized on Mansfield so not necessarily a fair comparison. I have however seen big numbers on a Northerly wind in the aftermath of a storm 2 or 3 years ago that brought about 3 feet of upslope on top of the 12" or so that we got during the storm. Oh and in general, I hands down prefer upslope to synoptic. Too much that can go wrong with synoptic, and I'm not a big fan of disappointment. Upslope seems more reliable, and it's the gift that keeps on giving. Sometimes a storm passes and the forecast keeps changing to include snow for another 12 hours, and it just keeps changing as the time progresses so what should have been 12 hours of snow becomes 2-3 days of constant light snow. I love that. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I figured that could use a little FYP – you might need to adjust your expectations now that we’re going to be moving into the time of year with potentially more upslope precipitation.  Even over here that type of stuff happens, and we’ve got pretty solid radar coverage of the spine of the Northern Greens and meteorologists at BTV that really focus on fine tuning forecasts in the mountains that are just to their east.  From what I’ve seen, coverage over there in the Whites is tougher because the radar source is farther away and/or there are so many surrounding mountains.  Per that previous discussion, no, you’re probably not going to have a 40” storm sneak up on you out of nowhere in this day and age, but you’re likely to have the potential for a lot of precipitation that might not be visible/expected.  I’m pretty sure Alex has experienced some of that, but it’s one of the reasons folks are excited to have another person reporting out of that area – there’s a lot that goes on that the models and radar don’t necessarily catch.

Regarding the radar, I was actually surprised how low the radar beam can sample in Phin’s area for being so far away from the radar site.

Here just east of Mansfield, my place is only 21 miles from the radar site in BTV and the ski area shows up at 17 miles away.  However due to the 4,000ft terrain, the lowest usable beam is the 2.4 degree scan... and RadarScope says that’s generally sampling the sky between 5-6,000ft here.

I noticed without any big terrain locally near the GYX radar site, that you can get great coverage with the 0.5 degree scan (that one is completely useless out of BTV though).  So despite Phin’s area being a long 62 miles away from the radar site, it’s still sampling that same 5-6000ft level around him.

That blew my mind for some reason... that being so far away from the radar, that area of NNH is getting sampled at a similar height to the first usable scan height in our area, three times closer to the radar site.  

But for sure there’s still plenty of low level precipitation generating... or heavier that radar shows.  I just found it interesting in terms of beam heights how similar our areas are despite the different distance from the radar sites.  Alex’s area looks to get blocked the most, as MWN is almost on a direct line between him and GYX.

[powderfreak]

The worst radar coverage is by far eastern VT.  The Spine close to BTV means we need to use higher scans, but if 2.4 degree is the first to clear the Spine, that angle is so steep that by the time it’s in eastern VT or the northeast kingdom, it’s at 12-15000 feet up.  Like I-91 corridor, the radar is hitting 15,000ft up in the air, which isn’t going to give you much help in figuring out the surface.

In fact, at 15000ft in eastern VT, many times all the precipitation is occurring well below that, even synoptic precipitation.  So you never even see the precip unless it’s summer convection punching high in the air.

I think that’s why @alex mentioned the lack of echoes in eastern VT... the beam keeps rising as the precip moves eastward, and eventually the beam is just going above the precipitation, because the Green Mtn Spine necessitates a steep initial scan angle.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The worst radar coverage is by far eastern VT.  The Spine close to BTV means we need to use higher scans, but if 2.4 degree is the first to clear the Spine, that angle is so steep that by the time it’s in eastern VT or the northeast kingdom, it’s at 12-15000 feet up.  Like I-91 corridor, the radar is hitting 15,000ft up in the air, which isn’t going to give you much help in figuring out the surface.

In fact, at 15000ft in eastern VT, many times all the precipitation is occurring well below that, even synoptic precipitation.  So you never even see the precip unless it’s summer convection punching high in the air.

I think that’s why @alex mentioned the lack of echoes in eastern VT... the beam keeps rising as the precip moves eastward, and eventually the beam is just going above the precipitation, because the Green Mtn Spine necessitates a steep initial scan angle.

Yeah coverage for VSF-EEN is pretty bad. It always appears like echoes are exploding toward me, but it's just the meat and potatoes of the best lift and reflectivities getting into the beam path.

[PhineasC]

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Regarding the radar, I was actually surprised how low the radar beam can sample in Phin’s area for being so far away from the radar site.

Here just east of Mansfield, my place is only 21 miles from the radar site in BTV and the ski area shows up at 17 miles away.  However due to the 4,000ft terrain, the lowest usable beam is the 2.4 degree scan... and RadarScope says that’s generally sampling the sky between 5-6,000ft here.

I noticed without any big terrain locally near the GYX radar site, that you can get great coverage with the 0.5 degree scan (that one is completely useless out of BTV though).  So despite Phin’s area being a long 62 miles away from the radar site, it’s still sampling that same 5-6000ft level around him.

That blew my mind for some reason... that being so far away from the radar, that area of NNH is getting sampled at a similar height to the first usable scan height in our area, three times closer to the radar site.  

But for sure there’s still plenty of low level precipitation generating... or heavier that radar shows.  I just found it interesting in terms of beam heights how similar our areas are despite the different distance from the radar sites.  Alex’s area looks to get blocked the most, as MWN is almost on a direct line between him and GYX.

Yeah, I've been pretty happy with the radar coverage here so far. I expected it to be a hot mess, but for the most part it shows even the smallish areas of precip over my house and the results on the ground line up well. Last night was the first time I really noticed the precip looked really wispy/scattered on radar but it was consistently pouring here. Must have been some other factor at play.