Bostonseminole Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still see a decent chance of a PWAT plume entering the westerlies near enough our circuitry to clip New England if not more directly from Delta ... At the time I thought Gamma but ..it doesn't really matter as both entities were in hot prospect of being captured by the larger synoptic grab and smear pattern... The question is, what form does that take. Some guidance even hold onto vestigial ...though conversion physics, others are wane it out but then develop a separate baroclinic wavy on the wave boundary that feeds off the latent heat plume...and gets us that way... Then of course the GFS tries to shunt it all S under a high pressure it is too aggressive and full of shit to begin with because it has too much mid and upper air tropospheric wind speeds everywhere, all the time, as an irritating model bias that causes confluences to get out of control mass and produces too much surface high pressures... CMC was pretty wet up here from delta and the front after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Wow. Josh made it to Cancun. He is the man. He must have more hurricane intercepts than anyone else in the world. This one should be intense. Looking at the graphics the eye should pass around 8am. Hopefully it doesn't speed up so he can get some good daylight video within the eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 ECMWF OP is impressive in forming a wall preventing Delta's moisture getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 First snow for Phin? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 52 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: First snow for Phin? Looks like Mt Washington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 18z GFS is a soaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, PowderBeard said: First snow for Phin? Time for the mountains to get some whitening... looks like 2500ft+ best shot but some mangled flakes could reach 1500ft at the tail end on that run. Getting to be that time of year. A Thursday gondola ride may be in order to start the day lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Some interesting weather tomorrow...Strong winds and some rain? QPF amounts will be highly tied to terrain given the strong westerly flow, with upslope areas of the Greens/Adirondacks seeing the most precip and the Connecticut and Champlain Valleys seeing the least owing to downsloping effects. Total QPF amounts will range from 0.3 to 1.0 inch over higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, to 0.1 to 0.4 inches in the Champlain, Saint Lawrence, and Connecticut Valleys. Just how strong winds will get tomorrow is a tricky forecast...and will likely see much variability in reported winds due to expected precipitation. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon into the evening in areas that see breaks in precipitation...which should be on the eastern slopes of the northern Adirondacks and the eastern slopes of the southern Green Mountains. Wind gusts in these areas will be between 30 and 45 mph, with a few isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. Elsewhere, gusts will range from 20 to 35 mph. As stated before, the wrench in the forecast could be the precipitation and it`s stabilizing effects on the lower- levels...so expect weaker winds in any areas that see prolonged precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 I am figuring there is a decent chance to see some snow on top of Adams/Madison as this system winds up. We will see if I can get some mangled flakes here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 BOX hitting the winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: BOX hitting the winds Yea not messing around. Was surprised to see their last two FB posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Big big damage potential tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GFS is a soaker Eps totally dry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Stein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: I am figuring there is a decent chance to see some snow on top of Adams/Madison as this system winds up. We will see if I can get some mangled flakes here. Drive up mt washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: I am figuring there is a decent chance to see some snow on top of Adams/Madison as this system winds up. We will see if I can get some mangled flakes here. where do you live now? Near Bretton Woods at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: where do you live now? Near Bretton Woods at all? Randolph, NH at 1500 feet, right across rt 2 from the Northern Presidentials. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Screw the rains, let's get the wind up in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Randolph, NH at 1500 feet, right across rt 2 from the Northern Presidentials. We dont live too far from each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eps totally dry We rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 High wind warning up.. doubt it verifies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: We rain? We don’t . HP builds in forces it south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 There’s a chance Tuesday the remnants could come, but it’s not a lock and could end up buried to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: High wind warning up.. doubt it verifies We blow today. May not be widespread but could see gusts 45kts in a lot of areas. Maybe isolated higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We blow today. May not be widespread but could see gusts 45kts in a lot of areas. Maybe isolated higher. Won’t need much to bring some limbs and power lines down; Brush Fire threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 This should do wonders for the foliage. Already in bad shape due to the Stein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Models are going wild with mixing. I'm having trouble almost believing it, but some of the data is eye opening. Not sure of the high end 55-60kt stuff, but could be a lot of 40-50kt gusts maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 06 gfs is a little wet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Meh, a tenth if we're lucky with the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Models are going wild with mixing. I'm having trouble almost believing it, but some of the data is eye opening. Not sure of the high end 55-60kt stuff, but could be a lot of 40-50kt gusts maybe? We wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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