Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Foliage made a comeback today. Orange time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I wouldn’t hate a nice cold soaker on Saturday.... good day to watch some college football Over by daybreak here . Mid morning there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Caution flags on tossing the Euro this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Eff a Saturday soaker and college football. Get this out of here ASAP for a nice weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Caution flags on tossing the Euro this time. It's tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Looks like an all day event up here Saturday, Glad my outdoor work is just about done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Eff a Saturday soaker and college football. Get this out of here ASAP for a nice weekend. Don’t look at the 12z gfs... Saturday looks washed.... and another 1-1.5” of rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 58 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the Euro and NAM bias of being slow and amped getting corrected quickly. Ride the GFS these days. It’s been on that for days now. Go East young man. Crazy how good the GFS has been the past 4-6 weeks, have to toss the Euro these days. GFS has gone wide right of the Cape past two runs. Here’s 6z: GFS performs pretty well in fast flow....I remember even in the winter of 2012-2013....January 2013 was screaming fast flow and we kept getting little clipeprs and no big storms, and a huge meltdown and canceled winter posts came pouring in, and then when the Euro showed the Feb 2013 bomb, nobody believed it, but the flow was starting to slow and it nailed it and the GFS was back to being an embarrassment in big storms. This is fast flow, so yeah, toss the Euro far west solutions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 41 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like 1"+ for the whole region on rainfall with some seeing 2" outside of areas that may see some snow. even after Sat, I think we're still 5"+ below avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Don’t look at the 12z gfs... Saturday looks washed.... and another 1-1.5” of rain here It's done by late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: even after Sat, I think we're still 5"+ below avg We're cutting into that deficit, Not going to recoup all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's tossed. Your tossing this? Ok. We will confirm Sunday. I think it has the right idea on precip distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your tossing this? Ok. We will confirm Sunday. I think it has the right idea on precip distribution I'm tossing the more amped and less progressive solutions like yesterday. Even 00z and 06z ticked east. That's all. I expect good, widespread rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's done by late morning. We’ll see.... not like it’s going to be a great day either way, even if the heavy rain is done by noon. Day is shot at that point, it’s mid October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm tossing the more amped and less progressive solutions like yesterday. Even 00z and 06z ticked east. That's all. I expect good, widespread rains. I know it’s splitting hairs but the 00z ECM was by far the most amped, 998mb over PWM...more so than yesterday’s runs. The 12z GFS is really weak out East with SLP, but still very good drink for much of the forum. I’m leaning that way for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I know it’s splitting hairs but the 00z ECM was by far the most amped, 998mb over PWM...more so than yesterday’s runs. The 12z GFS is really weak out East with SLP, but still very good drink for much of the forum. I’m leaning that way for sure. We shall see. Good test. I think 6Z Euro is correct. Nice block ahead of this system to slow it down. Expect a LP genesis over the Cape moving into the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We’ll see.... not like it’s going to be a great day either way, even if the heavy rain is done by noon. Day is shot at that point, it’s mid October Just make lunchtime on great, and we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I know it’s splitting hairs but the 00z ECM was by far the most amped, 998mb over PWM...more so than yesterday’s runs. The 12z GFS is really weak out East with SLP, but still very good drink for much of the forum. I’m leaning that way for sure. Yeah I wasn't checking every run, just the more amped solutions i think may be tamed. Canadian and GFS are more anafrontal stuff with a bit less CCB action until it gets into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I wasn't checking every run, just the more amped solutions i think may be tamed. Canadian and GFS are more anafrontal stuff with a bit less CCB action until it gets into Maine. That block might have a say. Not tossing a slower amped system myself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: That block might have a say. Not tossing a slower amped system myself Let’s get the fall coastals going and ease our way nicely into the cold weather season. Fall coastals are a hallmark of some of our good seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Tis the season to love me a cold soaker. One can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Getting back to what PF said, quite the 12 hr change in the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 ECMWF Inc. ...may need to start redesigning their 4-D variable secret recipe for the new era jet rage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 I would hedge the earlier time tables on Saturday ... Whatever takes place, typically in progressive ass-end of testing range for 747 weather patterns try to blow whatever the models are indicating half way to England before the next cycle of the given model even starts processing -.. They never get the timing right and the systems always end up outpacing by at least a little - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: AMOUT It's not going to change from a soaker though. Stein gone. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 useless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Wagons east on Euro compared to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Getting back to what PF said, quite the 12 hr change in the euro. Yeah it’s been a bad model. 12 hours ago (1 run of the old Euro) it had a 990-something cyclone plowing into PWM with strong conveyor belts. Forky’s animation is hilarious for the KING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: useless Yup! thanks - wonderfully illustrates the curvature (amplitude) bias I've been annoying people with for 4 years ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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