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Death of DroughtStein Discussion


Bostonseminole
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14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Toaster bath on the 18z NAM too... steady shift south since 6z.... goes from 3-5” to less than half an inch 

Never believed that output in the first place.  Through Tuesday evening old GFS, new GFS, Euro, ICON, NAM are all in the .50 to 1.00" range for SNE still...  Unless I'm looking at the wrong maps.  Still wiggle room too. Some of the runs last night had less than a quarter inch of rain during yesterdays runs before they went deluge for a few runs...

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1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

Never believed that output in the first place.  Through Tuesday evening old GFS, new GFS, Euro, ICON, NAM are all in the .50 to 1.00" range for SNE still...  Unless I'm looking at the wrong maps.  Still wiggle room too. Some of the runs last night had less than a quarter inch of rain during yesterdays runs before they went deluge for a few runs...

At least you get it. This was never gonna be inches. 

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44 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There is decent model agreement at this point that almost everybody in SNE gets at least .50"   Not a drought buster but definitely needed.  It has been dry, I can feel it in my lungs and nasal passages.

Let’s hope... could use some water before things go to bed for the winter...spring isn’t going to be pretty with all this vegetation stressed out right now as we enter winter.

and FWIW... icon has less than a half inch for most of SNE outside of western areas

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Monday/Columbus Day:

The Columbus Day holiday is looking to be a cloudy, cool and breezy
washout for most, as beneficial stratiform rain bands to continue to
overspread the remainder of Southern New England. Wettest conditions
continue to be primarily focused south of the Mass Pike and
especially across eastern RI, southeast MA and Cape Cod. Latest NBM
24 hour rainfall probabilities offer strong probabilities for at
least one-half inch in this area, with lower probs for 1". Official
forecast has the highest QPF across southeast MA, eastern RI and the
Cape and Islands at around one-half to three-quarters of an inch
through Columbus Day. ******Did note a tendency across model guidance QPF
sources for less QPF across northern MA towards the NH/VT border
more removed from the coastal low and where drier air may be tougher
to scour out. I did reduce values a bit here to around a quarter to
third of an inch, but it is looking like southern areas stand the
best chance for the highest rain totals.********

 

Drystein

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Monday/Columbus Day:

The Columbus Day holiday is looking to be a cloudy, cool and breezy
washout for most, as beneficial stratiform rain bands to continue to
overspread the remainder of Southern New England. Wettest conditions
continue to be primarily focused south of the Mass Pike and
especially across eastern RI, southeast MA and Cape Cod. Latest NBM
24 hour rainfall probabilities offer strong probabilities for at
least one-half inch in this area, with lower probs for 1". Official
forecast has the highest QPF across southeast MA, eastern RI and the
Cape and Islands at around one-half to three-quarters of an inch
through Columbus Day. ******Did note a tendency across model guidance QPF
sources for less QPF across northern MA towards the NH/VT border
more removed from the coastal low and where drier air may be tougher
to scour out. I did reduce values a bit here to around a quarter to
third of an inch, but it is looking like southern areas stand the
best chance for the highest rain totals.********

 

Drystein

Probably enough to get Bob off the ledge.

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