Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 New England forests are in trouble but we already knew it. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/climate/new-england-trees-forests.html#click=https://t.co/cWgJkhYlKW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 13 hours ago, Modfan2 said: Listen lol! Didn’t catch a size; but I think it could be a long weekend for Eastern Ct Fire Depts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Not looking good for much rain next couple weeks. Showers Tuesday won’t help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Rain looks good next week. Won’t be 5”, but should be fairly widespread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not looking good for much rain next couple weeks. Showers Tuesday won’t help 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rain looks good next week. Won’t be 5”, but should be fairly widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: He's shook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: He's shook. Monday good drop some decent rain into southwestern CT. Probably going to be a huge cut-off between the heavier rain and virtually nothing with the HP to the north. Monday looks pretty chilly too and breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 46 minutes ago, dryslot said: Remember what he said about last week . Stein was gone for all and dead and soakings etc. To me, this looks very similar.. showers but no good soakings and drought ender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember what he said about last week . Stein was gone for all and dead and soakings etc. To me, this looks very similar.. showers but no good soakings and drought ender Yeah i do remember, It looks similar for you guys next week as well, Just showers, No real soaking, Looks the same here as well, Just showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: New England forests are in trouble but we already knew it. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/climate/new-england-trees-forests.html#click=https://t.co/cWgJkhYlKW The sub-heading for that article, below, is only a small part of its content, but I guess climate change gets clicks (like mine.) Climate change is taking a toll on woodlands in the Northeast. Much of the article was about the need for more arborists, a real issue. CC was noted as a factor but not applied specifically to the trees noted in the piece except in relation to drought, which though currently serious cannot compare to conditions in the (cooler) 1960s. One little part about planting southern trees was puzzling, mentioning black gum, pawpaw and persimmon as tolerant of warmth and drought. In Maine all the black gum I've encountered were in wetland soils. The same person then noted she was planting balsam fir to replace adelgid-vulnerable hemlock. Fir is considered at risk in Maine due to a warming climate; it's about the last species I'd recommend planting in Mass. Considerable discussion of emerald ash borer, not really a climate change issue. I was surprised at the article's dismissive treatment of biological control ( because "it's so expensive!") for EAB, when that strategy is the only option for saving ash in the forest - pesticide application is economically feasible only for valuable specimen trees. Not a bad article overall but had some headscratchers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Probably the wrong thread for this but i've taken notice on the models that things could get interesting mid month especially up in NNE with some cold air around as well as precip, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some frozen and not just in the elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember what he said about last week . Stein was gone for all and dead and soakings etc. To me, this looks very similar.. showers but no good soakings and drought ender Yeah and many areas got drenched. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Probably the wrong thread for this but i've taken notice on the models that things could get interesting mid month especially up in NNE with some cold air around as well as precip, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some frozen and not just in the elevations. The GFS would certainly argue that but the euro argues quite differently. Regardless, it does appear as if we'll see somewhat of a gradient pattern setup so that is certainly possible up north. Looks like a scenario where we sneak in some brief cold shots (at least into NNE). I just can't believe there is another sizable ridge building into the West lol...they can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The GFS would certainly argue that but the euro argues quite differently. Regardless, it does appear as if we'll see somewhat of a gradient pattern setup so that is certainly possible up north. Looks like a scenario where we sneak in some brief cold shots (at least into NNE). I just can't believe there is another sizable ridge building into the West lol...they can't catch a break. Just getting back into model runs as its that time of year for me but going by what others have said all summer about the euro, I would be skeptical of what it has in the long range, Folks out west are worse off then us here with all the fires in CA with little to no relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Just getting back into model runs as its that time of year for me but going by what others have said all summer about the euro, I would be skeptical of what it has in the long range, Folks out west are worse off then us here with all the fires in CA with little to no relief. the Euro has really struggled this summer...especially in the tropical department (actually has been kinda brutal). but I think all models have struggled this summer. I seriously wonder if decline of flights due to COVID is playing a role and a rather significant role. I'm just curious though if the GFS cold bias has been fixed or muted a bit. Thankfully they have gotten some rain in WA/OR but CA...I just have no words. Looks like another hot stretch coming too with 80's and 90's across interior CA...even OAK could get into the 80's again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: the Euro has really struggled this summer...especially in the tropical department (actually has been kinda brutal). but I think all models have struggled this summer. I seriously wonder if decline of flights due to COVID is playing a role and a rather significant role. I'm just curious though if the GFS cold bias has been fixed or muted a bit. Thankfully they have gotten some rain in WA/OR but CA...I just have no words. Looks like another hot stretch coming too with 80's and 90's across interior CA...even OAK could get into the 80's again. Coming into fall and the winter season, It should be interesting to see how the models are going to perform once activity increases, And yes, We will have to see if the GFS cold bias has improved but generally, Its other weakness is coastal storms but that's where the Euro was strong so it will be interesting to say the least as may have to use more of a blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Coming into fall and the winter season, It should be interesting to see how the models are going to perform once activity increases, And yes, We will have to see if the GFS cold bias has improved but generally, Its other weakness is coastal storms but that's where the Euro was strong so it will be interesting to say the least as may have to use more of a blend. Hopefully we'll get coastal storms to track but who knows...if this becomes a Nina with a monster SE ridge the storm track may be across MI lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Hopefully we'll get coastal storms to track but who knows...if this becomes a Nina with a monster SE ridge the storm track may be across MI lol Cutter after cutter after cutter, Pig in AK and a SE ridge and i should be able to keep my tan all winter............... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Cutter after cutter after cutter, Pig in AK and a SE ridge and i should be able to keep my tan all winter............... Hopefully it will be more exciting than last winter. But I'm real curious about this winter. If the theme of establishing a ridge in the West holds at least through a good part of winter I would think that would bode well for us...but if the SE ridge becomes established we could get an omega like setup so then it becomes a question of where the trough axis is positioned. I really wish I had more time (and knowledge) to explore long-range forecasting. I used to be super, super into it but time is just not there...and my methods for "research" suck and are too time consuming lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Hopefully it will be more exciting than last winter. But I'm real curious about this winter. If the theme of establishing a ridge in the West holds at least through a good part of winter I would think that would bode well for us...but if the SE ridge becomes established we could get an omega like setup so then it becomes a question of where the trough axis is positioned. I really wish I had more time (and knowledge) to explore long-range forecasting. I used to be super, super into it but time is just not there...and my methods for "research" suck and are too time consuming lol. A +PNA and a weaker WAR we could be ok, But the pacific really drives the bus for here, Right now, I'm glad i'm further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: A +PNA and a weaker WAR we could be ok, But the pacific really drives the bus for here, Right now, I'm glad i'm further north. I think the WAR ridge will be key. Obviously things can change as we move through the cool season but this look in the Atlantic right now isn't very comforting. Models have also really struggled with Atlantic ridging the past few years and I think moreso this summer and that could be a culprit of the lack of cross-country flights. I do recall though some research into +SSTA's around Greenland correlating to a greater chance for a -NAO but of course there are other factors to consider. I'm curious as to whether the smoke from the wildfires in the West will have an influence on the stratosphere? I saw some rumblings about that but I have no knowledge in this aspect. It also looks like we could be heading towards a "basin wide" or "central Pacific" (or whatever you want to call it) La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: Cutter after cutter after cutter, Pig in AK and a SE ridge and i should be able to keep my tan all winter............... Deer scattering as they hear your boots sloshing through the warm, muddy woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Deer scattering as they hear your boots sloshing through the warm, muddy woods. Pretty comfy right now in the blind with the crossbow though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: He's shook. He’s cooked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Monday good drop some decent rain into southwestern CT. Probably going to be a huge cut-off between the heavier rain and virtually nothing with the HP to the north. Monday looks pretty chilly too and breezy This is driving me nuts as I need to send staff out into the field to sample when it rains, but I'm so up in the air about Monday. I'm leaning towards the HP winning, but not sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 28 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: This is driving me nuts as I need to send staff out into the field to sample when it rains, but I'm so up in the air about Monday. I'm leaning towards the HP winning, but not sure. Probably a good call. It's a fairly strong HP and pretty big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 We root for the icon here... soaker here Monday and Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We root for the icon here... soaker here Monday and Tuesday gfs has been getting wetter every run. Pretty confident we’ll get some good rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 All guidance is pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Wait until Tblizz sees the NAM after his 3 wine coolers tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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