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October 2020 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for October 2020

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

RJay _____________________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 

DonSutherland1 __________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _--0.3 _--0.1 ___ +3.5 _+4.7 _+4.3

Yoda _____________________+1.4 _+1.2 _+0.7 __ +1.1 _+1.9 _+0.8 ___ +2.0 _+3.9 _+2.7

BKViking _____ (-1%) ______+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.6 _--0.4 _+0.8 ___ +2.2 _+3.0 _+1.2

Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0

wxallannj _________________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +1.4 _+1.5 _+0.8

 

___ Consensus ____________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.6 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.5 _+1.7

 

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.6 _+1.2 _+0.4 __ +0.3 _+0.3 _+0.5 ___ +1.9 _+2.3 _+1.7

RodneyS __________________ +0.2 _+0.4 _+1.0 __ +0.9 __0.0 _+0.7 ___ +1.8 _+2.0 _+1.5

Tom ______________________ +0.1 _--0.2 _--0.1 __ --0.6 _--0.5 _+0.1 ___ +1.6 _+2.5 _+1.9

 

Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0

 

wxdude64 ________________ --0.3 _--0.6 _--0.5 ___--0.4 _--1.1 _--0.6 ___ +2.4 _+1.8 _+1.2

Roger Smith ______________ --1.5 _--2.0 _--2.2 ___--1.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+2.5

__________________________________

note: reduced the late penalty assessed to BKV as originally I had the idea his post was a day later, then I realized that I had not looked in for the first 24 hours while he posted, so it was only marginally late rather than the day and twelve hours that I had thought at first. 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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First look at anomalies and projections ...

_______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_ (9th) _______ (8d anom) ______--0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ___ --1.7 _ --0.7 _ --1.8 ___ +6.4 _ +7.4 _ +4.5

_ (16th) _____ (15d anom) _____ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +2.0 ___ +2.6 _ +2.8 _ +2.0 ___ +6.2 _ +6.6 _ +3.8

_ (25th) _____ (24d anom) _____ +3.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.7 ___ +1.1 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +6.5 _ +2.2

 

_ (9th) ______ (p15d anom) ____ --0.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.8 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +6.0 _ +2.5

_ (16th) _____ (p22d anom) ____ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +5.5 _ +6.0 _ +3.0

 

_ (9th) ______ (p25d anom) ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --2.5 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 ___ +5.0 _ +5.5 _ +3.0

_ (16th) _____ (p31d anom) ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0

_ (25th) _____ (p31d anom) ____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ --1.0* _ +5.0 _ +2.0

_ (31st) ____ final values _______ +2.4 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --1.0 _ +4.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.1 _ +4.2 _ +1.5

 

_______________________________________

9th _ First week was rather cool in the east although warming briefly 7th-8th. The west has been very warm (even where I live, in the 70s every day so far).

... Next week looks fairly similar, but after 15th GFS shows very cold air making an appearance over the Midwest and filtering into the northeast. Looks cold enough for lake effect snow at times, flurries in mountains of eastern states. Thus the 16d projections fall to below normal in eastern and central regions, staying quite warm in the west. 

16th _ Second week continued near normal in the east, warm in the west. These trends will shift gradually to much below normal temperatures at times in the eastern and central states, staying fairly warm in the west although less marked in the Pac NW. 

25th _ The expected cooling trend was muted for the east and confined to central and western states instead. Although it now appears likely to turn rather cool at times, the anomalies will likely remain positive for the four locations in the eastern time zone and close to normal for ORD. ... IAH, DEN and SEA will likely have a few more cool days then rebound to above normal warmth, and PHX will stay well above normal after perhaps a day or two of unusually cool weather taking a bit of the edge off near-record warmth for another month. 

* 27th _ Had to revise DEN as they got into some extremely cold air for three days, coming out of that now but it has really knocked the anomaly way down. Revised from +2.0 to -1.0 and they will be fortunate to get back even that far having fallen below -1 now (running quite warm all month to 23rd, then this ... anyway, it is what it is and we're supposed to foresee it). 

1st _ Posting final values, scoring is now updated.  

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for October 2020

Scoring is based on final anomalies as shown in the previous post. 

* one point deducted for late penalty (BKV)

high scores in bold, ^ will count as second high score(s) where Yoda has high score (for comparison of regular entrants).

ATL is set to "max 60" scoring as high raw score was 58. Given the number of ties and differentials, the scoring levels were 60, 50 (3), 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 (2), 10. 

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTALS

 

Yoda _____________________ 80 _ 96 _100 _ 276 __ 58 _ 60 _ 88 _ 206 __ 482 __ 38 _ 94 _ 76 _ 208 _____ 690

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 64 _ 96 _ 94 _ 254 __ 74 _ 40 _ 94 _ 208 __ 462 __ 40 _ 62 _ 96 _ 198 _____ 660^

 

___ Consensus ____________66 _ 92 _ 94 _ 252 __ 68 _ 35 _ 94 _ 197 __ 442 __ 38 _ 66 _ 96 _ 200 _____ 644

 

wxallannj _________________ 66 _ 92 _ 94 _ 252 __ 64 _ 50^_ 80 _ 194 __ 446 __ 50 _ 46 _ 86 _ 182 _____ 628

Tom ______________________ 54 _ 76 _ 84 _ 214 __ 92 _ 20 _ 98 _ 210 __ 424 __ 46 _ 66 _ 92 _ 204^_____628

RJay ______________________92 _ 80 _ 84 _ 256 __ 60 _ 50^_ 96 _ 206 __ 462 __ 18 _ 86 _ 60 _ 164 _____ 626 

BKViking _____ (-1%) ______ 71*_ 91*_ 83*_245__ 67*_ 25 _ 87*_179 __ 424 __ 34 _75*_93*_ 202 _____ 626

Scotty Lightning ___________72 _ 90 _ 86 _ 248 __ 80 _ 50^_ 74 _ 204 __452 __ 68 _ 36 _ 70 _ 174 _____ 626 

RodneyS __________________56 _ 88 _ 94 _ 238 __ 62 _ 35 _ 90 _ 187 __ 425 __ 42 _ 56 _100 _ 198 _____ 623

DonSutherland1 __________ 82 _100_ 98^_ 280 __ 70 _ 30 _ 94 _ 194 __ 474^__ 08 _ 90^_ 44 _ 142 _____ 616 

 

Normal ____________________52 _ 80 _ 86 _ 218 __ 80 _ 35 _ 96 _ 211 __ 429 __ 78 _ 16 _ 70 _ 164 _____ 593

 

wxdude64 ________________ 46 _ 68 _ 76 _ 190 __ 88 _ 10 _ 84 _ 182 __ 372 __ 30 _ 52 _ 94 _ 176 _____ 548

Roger Smith ______________ 22 _ 40 _ 42 _ 104 __ 90 _ 20 _ 96 _ 206 __ 310 __ 18 _ 86 _ 80 _ 184 _____ 494

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT 

Highest forecasts were extreme forecast winners for DCA (RJay), ATL (Yoda, and within regular forecasters wxallannj, Scotty Lightning, RJay), while for PHX highest forecast may be a loss with Yoda taking a win for second highest forecast getting high score. (based on estimate, if the final value is 4.3 or higher, it's a win for Don instead). Lowest forecast was a win for Scotty L at DEN (oddball result with extreme cold for a few days overwhelming warmth most of the days). Normal also picks up a win for DEN (we all went positive, DEN will end up around -1.0). For ORD, lowest forecast was a loss for Roger Smith (-1.5, 90 pts) and a win for second coldest (Tom, -0.6, 92 pts) as ORD finished at -1.0. 

NYC, BOS, IAH and SEA all are trending to high scores closer to consensus than extremes. 

-- will post the annual update soon after these scores are finalized on Nov 1st, but with most of you scoring in a similar range, there won't be a lot of movement in the tables, congrats to Yoda for high score (subject to slight adjustments to come) and hudsonvalley21. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Oct) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________708_ 742_ 790 __2240 __615 _614_698__1967 __4207 __720_669_672_ 2061 ____6268

hudsonvalley21 ____________601 _694 _761 __2056 __540 _616 _733 __1889 __3945 __557_702_659_ 1918 ____5863

Don Sutherland.1 ___________662 _736_742 __2140 __585 _640 _716 __1941 __4081 __458_668_640_ 1766 ____5847

RJay _______________________680 _711 _661 __2052 __573 _646 _683 __1902 __3954 __600_634_640_ 1874 ____5828

___ Consensus _____________598 _664 _765 __2027 __512 _618_744 __1874 __3901 __558_699_660_ 1917 ____ 5818

BKViking __________________ 569 _643 _706 __1918 __544 _545 _697__1786 __3704 __581_712_712_ 2005 ____ 5709

wxallannj __________________616 _708 _743 __2067 __458 _615 _734__1807 __3874 __548_645_632_ 1825 ____5699

Tom _______________________ 592 _648 _724 __1964__478 _644 _697__1819 __3783 __553_685_609_ 1847 ____5630

Scotty Lightning ____________514 _522 _612 __1648 __450 _623_766__1839 __3487 __506_624_652_ 1782 ____ 5269

wxdude64 __________________509 _549 _612 __1670__450 _544 _724__1718 __3388 __ 528_655_540_ 1723 ____5111

Roger Smith ________________468 _521 _620 __1609__486 _619 _650__1755 __3364 __ 558_506_478_ 1542 ____4906

___ Normal _________________408 _432 _528 __1368 __382 _565 _636__1583 __2951 __448_496_ 612_ 1556 ____4507

Brian5671 _ (8/10) _________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313

JakkelWx _ (7/10) __________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748

yoda _ (4/10) _______________192 _ 227 _200 __ 619 __152_250 _311 __ 713 ___1332 __209 _347_210 __ 766_____2098

rclab _ (1/10) ________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 ___ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/10) ______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 ___ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/10) ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 ___ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Rhino16 _ (1/10) _____________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 ___ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings January to October

68 of 90 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 45 for warmest and 23 for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct __ Standings to date

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 _ ---- ___ 13-4

RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 _ 2-0 __ 12-0

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 11-2

Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 11-3

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- _ 0-1 ___ 8-1

Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 _ 2-0 ___ 6-1

Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 5-2

Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 4-0

yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 _ 2-0 ___ 4-1

RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- ___ 2-0

wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- ___ 2-0

Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- ___ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- ___ 1-0

wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 ___ 2-1

================================================================================

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to October

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. 

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than total of months best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. From Oct to Dec, high scores are always given

among regular annual entrants when "occasional" entrants take high score awards. (* marks these)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS _________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep

hudsonvalley21 ___________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1*___Oct*

DonSutherland.1 __________1 ___ 3 ___ 2*____2 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2*____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr

RJay _____________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 3*___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul

___ Consensus ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

wxallannj _________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Tom ______________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*_____0

Scotty Lightning __________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0

wxdude64 ________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Roger Smith ______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 1 __ Aug

Brian5671 ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0

_____ Normal _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr

Jakkelwx _________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Yoda _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 ___ Oct

RClab ____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

____________________________________________________________________________________

* includes one win in this category among regular entrants only (Yoda had higher score).

... this rule only applies in fourth quarter of season. ... not retroactive. 

 

 

 

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