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Spotty 4+" rain by Noon Thu Oct 1, 2020, with iso FFW possible Tue and/or Wed

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

Despite the fact that it hadn't rained for more than two weeks (Sept 10th general last significant rainfall), the upcoming pattern will probably produce two significant rainfall episodes, Tuesday and

hudsonvalley21
hudsonvalley21

Hopefully we get some light rain for a few hours to soften up the ground for absorbing purposes. Everything is rock hard now.  Flash flooding could definitely be an issue. 

forkyfork
forkyfork

as usual it's going to come down to who gets the banding and we won't know until go time

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wdrag

wdrag

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414P:  The lead rainfall is pretty decent in NJ/se NYS as of 315P.

Going to be pretty volatile between 11P-7A east of I95  Watch NJ coast first light up with thunderstorms and rainfall of 1-2" in an hr developing near midnight (lasting an hour or two) then spreading ne across parts of LI-CT.  PWAT well above 2" for a short time as moisture transport becomes very strong after the 11P news cast.

The driver is a modeled 60-65KT SLY jet vcnty ACY at 06Z (12z/29 EC/UK op models), up to 75 kt vcnty PSM 11z/WED.  Added WU rainfall so far today for se NYS,  its a little less in NJ as of 1 hr ago.  

Also added the the latest HRRR max gusts, and the EC-WX.US attempt gust algorithm.  Lots of 50kt in both.  These may be 10-15 kt too high? but if I were living on LI/CT I wouldn't be surprised at a marginally svr thunderstorm between 2A-5A, then off it races to the ne. Let's check back later, or review tomorrow.  The idea is to be ahead of the potential reality and prepared. If it doesn't occur, then the modeling is not accurate.418P/29

Screen Shot 2020-09-29 at 3.50.29 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-29 at 4.01.08 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-29 at 4.02.00 PM.png

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wdrag

wdrag

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2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Looks like OKX cut back precip a tad on latest QPF forecast, especially for LI compared to earlier:

StormTotalQPF_SFC.thumb.png.40dde021e363282ae175b4416c4e0758.png

 

This looks like the exact WPC issuance for the period after 8PM tonight. Their Excessive risk has expanded.  We're only at the beginning.  If all goes to the modeling, their should be quite an increase around 11P-midnight NJ coast spreading rapidly newd. Never ever SURE til it gets going but it seems to me the SVR's in NC now could be the start.  Check back around 8P to see what is happening along the mid Atlantic coast. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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Wantage NJ 1.34" so far. DIX radar axis 2-3" amounts looks as best axis. Suspect it's running low. Many G 40-48 kt NJ coast into se NYS Hud River area eastward since midnight.  Here is a very early CoCoRAHS map of reports since about 8AM yesterday. No FFW/SVR issuances.Screen_Shot_2020-09-30_at_6_29.22_AM.thumb.png.91441ce79f4fffc4a729088b539e1b62.png.

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wdrag

wdrag

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Updated CoCoRAHS 1 day graphic. Will update again later.  Suspect there is more wind damage out there on LI than announced so far. Also, many reports of G40kt or greater e of I95 early today per datascope-weatherflow. 

I'll be interested in all reports our NYC forum of 3+".  

In my opinion the models generally focused NYC-NJ-Hud Valley on 1.5"+ as we drew closer to the event and I felt they handled handled the potential for damaging gusts quite well.  

The expected NJ coast development after 11P last night ended up further West and became much narrower crossing the eastern part of the forum at dawn. 

Still, considering only 30 hours of rain at most, many cases less than 8 hours...these amounts are pretty good With spotty 4+ Berskhires and near PHL (n and s of forum).  I did not check WU two day reports...

E LI your time will come...will try to comment more on projected max qpf axis in the future.

I'll update just before Noon on rainfall and wind. Thanks for your comments (-/+) 747A/310

Screen_Shot_2020-09-30_at_7_36.59_AM.png

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

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51 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Updated CoCoRAHS 1 day graphic. Will update again later.  Suspect there is more wind damage out there on LI than announced so far. Also, many reports of G40kt or greater e of I95 early today per datascope-weatherflow. 

I'll be interested in all reports our NYC forum of 3+".  

In my opinion the models generally focused NYC-NJ-Hud Valley on 1.5"+ as we drew closer to the event and I felt they handled handled the potential for damaging gusts quite well.  

The expected NJ coast development after 11P last night ended up further West and became much narrower crossing the eastern part of the forum at dawn. 

Still, considering only 30 hours of rain at most, many cases less than 8 hours...these amounts are pretty good With spotty 4+ Berskhires and near PHL (n and s of forum).  I did not check WU two day reports...

E LI your time will come...will try to comment more on projected max qpf axis in the future.

I'll update just before Noon on rainfall and wind. Thanks for your comments (-/+) 747A/310

Screen_Shot_2020-09-30_at_7_36.59_AM.png

Around 2:00am that heavy axis of rain swung through and really helped contribute to those two inch and greater amounts in Northern Morris.  It was a decent event earlier, but that batch was what we needed to soak things.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

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Posted

61/54 and breezy. Front pushed through and much drier and cooler.  Back near normal today and Thursday before cooler (below normal) arrives Friday - Sunday. Some moderation with cut off low pushing another front through early next week with next heavy rain chance.  Cooler air follows Oct 5/6 before a brief moderation then models now hinting at stronger 2 day chill Oct 8 - 10 before a more sustained warmup.

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wdrag

wdrag

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I'll use this post as my final summary for this event, possibly adding/delete maps later today based on late arriving reports.  The graphic is the CoCoRAHS D1 summary.  Not in there is the 4.2" amount in Mercer County (Ewing area near Trenton NJ), in the sw corner of our forum.  

I saw flooded road references on NBC4 ~6A this morning and am pretty sure there has to be damage reports (non-thunderstorm) that I haven't yet seen posted.  

No matter, this event was decent (am aware of pittance rainfall NJ coast and eastern LI) with the bulk of the forum experiencing heavy rain NJ-se NYS/w CT; or wind gusts 45-55 MPH vicinity NYC eastward. And this from only 1 storm.

This link is PHI's PNS for rainfall. 1032A/30

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

At 1037A, add PHI tweet analysis of the PNS rainfall. I like the narrow 3-4" slots. 

At 350PM, added this PNS from OKX... has some pretty decent winds. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

Screen_Shot_2020-09-30_at_10_16.10_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-30 at 10.34.34 AM.png

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