Enhanced snow potential over climatology ...

[Typhoon Tip]

This is for early awareness only, for enthusiasts and on-going interests therein.  Nothing specific ( yet ) to hone in on, but the canvas is certainly there in my opinion .. and a growing impression/expectation for an early winter-like weather expression.  The proceeding is based upon personal environmental awareness and teleconnections, combined. 

As most are aware, the recent operational model types have unanimously all been signaling an anomalous +amplification mode of the Perennial North-American Pattern heading into the mid range, and extending beyond .. well into week-2 .. for many day's worth of runs.  As a foreshadowing suggestion, I don't see why an exaggerated early season PNAP pattern, oscillating between neutral to above normal - won't persist very deep into next month, as prescribed the bevy of teleconnectors/tools therein.   In and of itself, western ridges and eastern troughs happen at this time of year and they do not have to necessarily signal much. But we have more to consider. 

 (  As hypothetical side note ... where/whence the solar clock has all but extinguished the sun's ability to offset early season cold loading into the N. American continent ..., that normalcy is happening through an ongoing smoke/particulate aerosol surplus -  prooobably that has alleviated and/or dispersion extinguished in recent weeks...  But, how much so, and ..I also want to point out that the coupled upstream nature of this flow orchestrates yet another period of ginormous heights over the western U.S. - that anomaly will bring a resurgency ( to some "degree" lol ) of enough dessocating heat .. working on a landscape still reeling from the earlier amplitude of similar thematic arc which brought 101 to San Francisco while it was snowing in Denver!  And unfortunately more fires that will add to this dimming study.  Particularly above the 50th parallel, the governing pattern combined with seasonal solar loss, combined with cooling insolation sheltering.. may play an interesting feedback role in augmenting the air that does pool into climate loading region(s).  It may be a subtle ...almost too subtle of a factor to readily quantify, but the "synergy" of finding the cooler solution at least excuse might show up in the gestalts  )

We have seen this type of pattern evolve more frequently than not ...since ~ 2000, during autumns.  This is the multi-decadal trend, and it is one that is autumnal. I have floated numerous "science-fiction" as well as plausible hypothesis as to why this is occurring - and the foundation for those insights is both apriori, existential...as well as empirically based ( found here in chapter 5 as a primer - https://science2017.globalchange.gov/   ...  https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/  ) .. 

So tfwiw .. this year is following right in with this trend-signal. I don't see any reason to offset the assumption that October ( and probably November too - ) will write their chapters similarly with cold incursions that are either interrupting otherwise normal or even slightly above normal temperature departures as intervening. Each whiplash cool back could snow... Part of climate change ( hint hint ) was modeled over the generations of the science, to be hugely variant.  Having big temperature oscillations either side of the polar jet in October is too obviously related to that to ignore... Leave it at that.

The teleconnectors:  ... These are the GEFs-based ones.   I find it interesting that recently an increase ( supposedly ) in the capacity of the GEFs for longer range prediction ( and methods therein) were brought on line, and then almost immediately I've observed a rather impressive 'adjustment' toward a colder complexion - one that ...frankly fits the multi-decadal trend. 

... I suspect the imm (left) dip in the PNA is probably in the process of correcting less ...how much .. either way, the longer term mass of the members/mean therein suggest the PNA is attempting to maintain a positive bias.  There is no MJO modulation of this coherently available at this time - 

This somewhat reminds me of the early season teleconnector spread that lay in wait ahead of the October 2011 snows that took place that month.  Not sure if folks recall or not...that was not so much of a fluke relative to pattern - it was only a fluke relative to climatology.  Fact of the matter is, the EPO/PNA-NAO arc all were aligning a cold pattern week(s) prior to the big event, and... there was a sneaking appetizer snow fall and puffy wet aggregate event that car-topped a chilly afternoon and early evening a week prior. So, the signal was successfully ferretted out of the teleconnector spread ... as the combined weigting of two concurrent cold events in the same period was formulaic and not just weird.  I frankly don't see that we are in a different climate mode compared to 9 years ago ( I can't believe that was 9 years - wow ).  

It seems the unusually fast flow is building early seasons heights over western N/A ...exaggerating early season cold loading potentials and ...eventually Octobers and certainly Novembers, the dim solar insolation combined with that augmented curved flow becomes over bearing and climate suggestions are falling increasingly by the wayside do to the weight of those concurrent factors.  Here we see a teleconnector spread that is set in ( whether by upgraded GEFs or not...), and given decadal trends combined with other environmental factors perhaps more hypothetic.. the table sets in my mind to snow in October yet again.  

Hard to imagine perhaps as I type this in 83 F heat ... but, this warm spell now and over the nearer time ranges was also well handled by the models, too. 

[powderfreak]

So Connecticut should be prepared to go without power for the second half of October?

[Spanks45]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

So Connecticut should be prepared to go without power for the second half of October?

No thanks...way too much of that here of late. A snowy November through March would be alright though!

Those few mornings of sub 30 and now 80+ feels weird, it felt like August today, the kids swam in the pool for a bit. Temperature was actually 68 before I kicked the heater on, sun is still cooking the water, just a bit at least. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is for early awareness only, for enthusiasts and on-going interests therein.  Nothing specific ( yet ) to hone in on, but the canvas is certainly there in my opinion .. and a growing impression/expectation for an early winter-like weather expression.  The proceeding is based upon personal environmental awareness and teleconnections, combined. 

As most are aware, the recent operational model types have unanimously all been signaling an anomalous +amplification mode of the Perennial North-American Pattern heading into the mid range, and extending beyond .. well into week-2 .. for many day's worth of runs.  As a foreshadowing suggestion, I don't see why an exaggerated early season PNAP pattern, oscillating between neutral to above normal - won't persist very deep into next month, as prescribed the bevy of teleconnectors/tools therein.   In and of itself, western ridges and eastern troughs happen at this time of year and they do not have to necessarily signal much. But we have more to consider. 

 (  As hypothetical side note ... where/whence the solar clock has all but extinguished the sun's ability to offset early season cold loading into the N. American continent ..., that normalcy is happening through an ongoing smoke/particulate aerosol surplus -  prooobably that has alleviated and/or dispersion extinguished in recent weeks...  But, how much so, and ..I also want to point out that the coupled upstream nature of this flow orchestrates yet another period of ginormous heights over the western U.S. - that anomaly will bring a resurgency ( to some "degree" lol ) of enough dessocating heat .. working on a landscape still reeling from the earlier amplitude of similar thematic arc which brought 101 to San Francisco while it was snowing in Denver!  And unfortunately more fires that will add to this dimming study.  Particularly above the 50th parallel, the governing pattern combined with seasonal solar loss, combined with cooling insolation sheltering.. may play an interesting feedback role in augmenting the air that does pool into climate loading region(s).  It may be a subtle ...almost too subtle of a factor to readily quantify, but the "synergy" of finding the cooler solution at least excuse might show up in the gestalts  )

We have seen this type of pattern evolve more frequently than not ...since ~ 2000, during autumns.  This is the multi-decadal trend, and it is one that is autumnal. I have floated numerous "science-fiction" as well as plausible hypothesis as to why this is occurring - and the foundation for those insights is both apriori, existential...as well as empirically based ( found here in chapter 5 as a primer - https://science2017.globalchange.gov/   ...  https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/  ) .. 

So tfwiw .. this year is following right in with this trend-signal. I don't see any reason to offset the assumption that October ( and probably November too - ) will write their chapters similarly with cold incursions that are either interrupting otherwise normal or even slightly above normal temperature departures as intervening. Each whiplash cool back could snow... Part of climate change ( hint hint ) was modeled over the generations of the science, to be hugely variant.  Having big temperature oscillations either side of the polar jet in October is too obviously related to that to ignore... Leave it at that.

The teleconnectors:  ... These are the GEFs-based ones.   I find it interesting that recently an increase ( supposedly ) in the capacity of the GEFs for longer range prediction ( and methods therein) were brought on line, and then almost immediately I've observed a rather impressive 'adjustment' toward a colder complexion - one that ...frankly fits the multi-decadal trend. 

... I suspect the imm (left) dip in the PNA is probably in the process of correcting less ...how much .. either way, the longer term mass of the members/mean therein suggest the PNA is attempting to maintain a positive bias.  There is no MJO modulation of this coherently available at this time - 

This somewhat reminds me of the early season teleconnector spread that lay in wait ahead of the October 2011 snows that took place that month.  Not sure if folks recall or not...that was not so much of a fluke relative to pattern - it was only a fluke relative to climatology.  Fact of the matter is, the EPO/PNA-NAO arc all were aligning a cold pattern week(s) prior to the big event, and... there was a sneaking appetizer snow fall and puffy wet aggregate event that car-topped a chilly afternoon and early evening a week prior. So, the signal was successfully ferretted out of the teleconnector spread ... as the combined weigting of two concurrent cold events in the same period was formulaic and not just weird.  I frankly don't see that we are in a different climate mode compared to 9 years ago ( I can't believe that was 9 years - wow ).  

It seems the unusually fast flow is building early seasons heights over western N/A ...exaggerating early season cold loading potentials and ...eventually Octobers and certainly Novembers, the dim solar insolation combined with that augmented curved flow becomes over bearing and climate suggestions are falling increasingly by the wayside do to the weight of those concurrent factors.  Here we see a teleconnector spread that is set in ( whether by upgraded GEFs or not...), and given decadal trends combined with other environmental factors perhaps more hypothetic.. the table sets in my mind to snow in October yet again.  

Hard to imagine perhaps as I type this in 83 F heat ... but, this warm spell now and over the nearer time ranges was also well handled by the models, too. 

I remember that mid week snow event prior to the tree crippler . It snowed much of the day and the hills had 1-2” . Little did anyone know what was coming that weekend 

[Chrisrotary12]

I legitimately just looked at computer guidance and went......if there were ever a pattern to get another October snow storm and logged in to find this thread.

[Go Kart Mozart]

October 1987?   Tip, does the smoke have a warming or cooling effect on tropospheric temps?

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

October 1987?   Tip, does the smoke have a warming or cooling effect on tropospheric temps?

Excellent question ... I am not expert in this area of Meteorology  - I'm sure there are others lurking that may have some better refined information, but just off the top of my head .. pollutant aerosols do have an effect on both incoming short wave IR, and... outgoing long wave IR.  That much we know ..but it matters which -

Some aerosols trap that outgoing radiation resulting in net heating over otherwise free air.   

Some aerosols are 'reflecting' and actually act like a block of solar energy ..such that multiple wave lengths or just a few/some can get through and/or are prevented.  Sulfur-dioxide is a huge block and can cause global cooling... There is also an altitude/suspension for the efficacy of each aerosol type's ability in any of these senses.  Ex. Sulfur-dioxide contaminant in the stratosphere caused the year without a summer ( theorized ) post the Tambora eruption of 1815..  

Smoke penetrates multiple layers of the troposphere and can get into the stratosphere ( eventually) too.  My hunch is the smoke particulate aerosols are more in the blocking aspect as opposed to the trapping outgoing IR/heating...  They behave similarly to cloud cover in the sense of increasing albedo - reflecting/shading...etc.  

As an aside, I'm intrigued by the pervasive early autumnal color flushing that's transpired Lakes...OV down into MA and in NE regions as 'plausibly' connect to late summer dimming these region experienced as consequence of excessive smoke as you noted - and that would be consistent with blocking UV and perhaps triggering the foliage early as (hypothesis...).

How/what/if that effects winter ... hell if I know.   October and onward into winter ...we are entering the time of year when 'blocking' at 60 N becomes substantive anyway. Added to, during a solar minimum which has some correlation with blocking, plus...during PDO/AMOs that both correlated to -EPO(-AO)-NAO arc on our side of the hemisphere ... All these latter factors are in play...  While ( if that were not enough) this velocity stuff might be related to continental "tucking" and increasing cold loads into Ontario as described ...  I mean, separating causality is a difficult parsing exercise in all of that.  Smoke?  heh -  

The short answer is it effects.. how so?  My own speculation is that it increases albedo and may net in cooling but.. it's also not clear how homogenized the smoke is and if it is enough to infiltrate the entire hemisphere substantially enough to matter ...  

[PowderBeard]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

As an aside, I'm intrigued by the pervasive early autumnal color flushing that's transpired Lakes...OV down into MA and in NE regions as 'plausibly' connect to late summer dimming these region experienced as consequence of excessive smoke as you noted - and that would be consistent with blocking UV and perhaps triggering the foliage early as (hypothesis...).

.  

Interesting thought.

 

I can definitely see the relationship to the fires and volcanic eruptions. There must be some way to compare in terms of debris or gas emission.  

[Typhoon Tip]

The GEF- based teleconnectors flat-out flag a winter storm in the east ..even as far S as our latitude, over N/A .. .~20th of October -->

[Bostonseminole]

still there?

[WinterWolf]

Exciting as that may sound...snow in October is just not needed or wanted by most winter enthusiasts. 
 

But with that being said...if something like that started looking more likely, we’d all be tuned in with great interest I’m sure. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Exciting as that may sound...snow in October is just not needed or wanted by most winter enthusiasts. 
 

But with that being said...if something like that started looking more likely, we’d all be tuned in with great interest I’m sure. 

Agree. It makes things a little more inconvenient. It sucks setting up snowmobile trails in the snow. Give me more days like yesterday to get things done. 

[ineedsnow]

I think we see out first flakes within the next 10 days.. its early but the signal  is definitely  showing up

[Typhoon Tip]