weatherwiz Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Well...welcome to fall. A season where low topped convective setups become more typical as strong cold front move into airmasses with marginal instability. Computer forecast models have been rather consistent in a pretty significant shortwave trough approaching the region and then de-amplifying a bit as it approaches with the trough sort of lifting out. While usually this is an indication of a weakening system, wind fields aloft are quite strong. At the surface, we'll have an unseasonably warm and moist airmass with temperatures into the 70's and dewpoints into the 60's. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit instability potential, however, several hundred J/KG of CAPE would be likely. The combination of strong shear/forcing and marginal instability will likely promote the development of one or multiple line segments which will be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts. Convection may be low-topped but this is dependent on how much instability materializes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 Might actually be more Tuesday than Monday but still looks like we could see some sort of line...though probably more low topped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 ??It doesn’t even rain Monday in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ??It doesn’t even rain Monday in SNE Read last post. The timing has slowed down quite a bit. Looks like this whole thing becomes much more amplified than what it looked at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 Still looks game...actually even better for a low topped squall line tomorrow night. Might even see a little surge of elevated CAPE ahead of it. Wouldn't be surprised to see the marginal risk expanded north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Peep the supercells crossing SNE tomorrow morning in the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Peep the supercells crossing SNE tomorrow morning in the HRRR. want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Couple tors coming thru N CT into SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Any lightning with these cells tomorrow morning does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Any lightning with these cells tomorrow morning does anyone know? There might be some. I don’t think this is a setup to have much lighting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2020 Author Share Posted September 30, 2020 That was not a bad looking low topped line this morning. damage!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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