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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


uofmiami
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Despite abundant sunshine, much of the region saw high temperatures reach no higher than the 40s. October 2020 had a monthly mean temperature of 57.9°, which was 1.0° above normal.

Parts of New England experienced a historic October snowfall yesterday. Select seasonal snowfall totals through today are:

Albany: 1.2" (2019-2020: 49.7")
Boston: 4.3" (2019-2020: 15.8")
Caribou: 1.5" (2019-2020: 151.9")

November will commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop latter part of the first week of November. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal and November should wind up somewhat warmer than normal overall (1° to 2° above normal).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was +20.30.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.209.

On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.369 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.277.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

 

 

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A record 11 consecutive warmer than average Octobers.

Oct.......EWR...NYC...LGA

2020...+1.5...+1.0...+1.8

2019..+3.8...+3.0 ...+2.8

2018...+0.8...+0.8...+1.7

2017...+7.2...+7.2...+7.4

2016...+2.3...+1.9....+3.1

2015...+0.6...+1.1....+0.3

2014...+2.7...+2.7....+2.2

2013...+3.0....+3.3...+2.8

2012...+2.2....+1.1....+1.9

2011...+1.5...+0.2.....+0.2

2010...+1.7...+1.2....+2.1

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Morning thoughts...

At 7:45 AM, an area of rain associated with an advancing cold front stretched from Ohio into Ontario. Another area of rain and showers that extended from portions of South Carolina into Virginia was heading northeastward. Clouds will increase during the day and some showers and periods of rain are likely during the afternoon and evening hours. It will be mild. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°
Newark: 57°
Philadelphia: 58°

Tomorrow will be very windy, blustery and cold. Some snow flurries and heavier snow showers are possible in parts of the region.

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 63.4°
Average temperature: 63.2°
Average error: 1.3°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 65.8°
Average temperature: 65.4°
Average error: 1.7°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 66.7°
Average temperature: 67.1°
Average error: 1.3°

 

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