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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


uofmiami
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12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. First October freeze there since October 31, 1988.

Yeah, the 5th coldest October minimum temperature on record for NYC.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1936 28 0
2 1976 29 0
- 1925 29 0
- 1887 29 0
- 1879 29 0
3 1940 30 0
- 1869 30 0
4 1988 31 0
- 1975 31 0
- 1974 31 0
- 1969 31 0
- 1871 31 0
5 1972 32 0
- 1965 32 0
- 1933 32 0
- 1928 32 0
- 1917 32 0
- 1904 32 0
- 1889 32 0
- 1876 32 1
  2020 32 0
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Morning thoughts...

As of 8:00 AM, low temperatures around the region included:

Albany: 19°; Allentown: 26°; Boston: 28°; Bridgeport: 31°; Danbury: 23°;  Harrisburg: 35°;  Hartford: 24°; Islip: 29°; New York City: 32°; Newark: 32°; Philadelphia: 34°; Poughkeepsie: 23°; Scranton: 28°; and, White Plains: 28°

That was New York City’s first October freeze since way back on October 31, 1988 when the mercury fell to 31°. Thick frost was present across much of the region.  

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures will moderate during the daytime. Nevertheless high temperatures will rise no higher than the 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 49°

Tomorrow will be milder, but an approaching cold front will bring periods of rain.

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A question: IFFFF ASOS sees a snowflake in CP Monday or Tuesday morning, will that qualify for shortest period? ??

AM tied up with lots of at home stuff so no starter post yet, but thinking of a damaging wind-power outage 50MPH wind gust post for the forum 15z-22z Monday.  Just need more time.  Am pretty sure we'll see some of this Monday (75% certainty on my part-hasty checks are my uncertainty). 

I do think scattered coatings of snow for parts of the higher I84 terrain Monday and possibly Tuesday morning with scattered snow showers. That too at least 75% certainty. 

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

The mjo in Phase 5 for most of October didn't have the usual outcome here in the Northeast which is usually much below-normal temperatures. We will finish solidly about normal throughout the region

It’s looks like those record warm SSTs off the West Coast and East Coast had a greater influence on our weather than the MJO. Notice how close the October pattern matched the +PMM. Those are the warmest SSTs off the West Coast that we have seen with such a strong La Niña.  It’s probably why the October pattern was so different than we would expect from a La Niña.

975F3544-BAA0-4618-8F30-5E3EA32CBAA7.gif.efd51a1368aa1cc629b41d49a6e56165.gif

9F21890D-6748-4839-9A1E-AF9CB57C3056.gif.5fc2109f3cd2a5479bec261d96c1281e.gif


B6A1B7AB-3862-4340-B1E3-0AE7638BBBE6.png.c04babfee69d67ba917ee82e0564c2f2.png

 

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@bluewave

That's very interesting about the PMM October pattern. I didn't even think to look at that for some reason. I remember we discussed that in the past. I found that particular pattern interesting when it was first showing up on ensembles. So I dug into some Nina years to look into it a little. I had some difficulty finding anything. Which I guess suggests the rarity of it. I see 1995 was brought up a few pages back. That was actually the closest match I could find. Albeit, it didn't happen until the end of the month that year. Therefore the composite for the month as a whole looks different. Interestingly, it's almost a mirror image of the PMM pattern composite you posted.

uu6KxBM.gif

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