October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like the interior will be getting snow next week

how could they possibly be predicting 1.4" of snow on central Long Island?  The 2" of snow in the Poconos sounds more believable.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, rclab said:

I know its dreamlike and perhaps Quixotic, but can you imagine being able to capture some of the tremendous, storm driven, rain totals and being able to transport them to where they would do the most good. As always ......

yes, it's better than trying to desalinate the oceans, removing salt from water is a hairy process.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro finally came north with the heavy rain potential from Zeta later in the week.This is followed by possibly the first 30s of the season for NYC around the end of the month. Then temperatures quickly warm across the US to start November.

 

3-4" of rain on Friday? (any wind potential there?) and then mid 30s for lows over the weekend, followed by a big warm up next week?  Are we looking at 70s with sunshine?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, wdrag said:

Considering a NYC forum topic for Thu-Sat 1-3" rain, maybe a touch of snow n and nw fringe but for me, it's a little early to have confidence of more than 2" of rain in our forum and/or 1" of snow high terrain northwest, IF snow were to occur. Timing-merger of the northern and southern streams late this week is imo, pretty uncertain, with vastly different storm tracking-precip shields.  No action on my part for a topic, prior to 6PM tonight at the earliest.  Just need a little more consensus. 

Walt, is it actually the remnants of Zeta that will cause the snow N/W of the city?  And any wind potential with that?  Also, I have been hearing there is more TC potential after Zeta?

 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/22/2020 at 12:48 PM, uncle W said:

back in the 1960's there would have been a polution alert with this inversion...Thanksgiving 1966 had very bad polution...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_New_York_City_smog#:~:text=The 1966 New York City smog was a,26%2C coinciding with that year's Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

wow 1966 Summer in NYC sounds like it's right out of the 1930s Dust Bowl era

[dWave]

22 hours ago, Cfa said:

Finally got a little taste of sun today, for about 20-30 minutes in Central Jersey. Car thermometer got up to 75, which was the highest temp reading between Long Island and southern Virginia. Lowest was 66 just north of Richmond, temp shot up to 73 in the UHI.

Fall foliage in Central Jersey and even swaths of South Jersey and Delaware is further along than in NYC and Long Island, shockingly. Maryland outside of Baltimore and DC looked like NYC/LI.

That sounds about right to me. NYC usually lags behind, then the foilage starts to really ramp up headed to Halloween, peaking in early Nov.  The UHI ends up with shorter window to see real fall colors 

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose only into the lower 50s today in much of the region. Overnight and tomorrow, it will be mainly cloudy with some showers. Readings should return to the upper 50s to perhaps the lower 60s.

The remainder of the closing week of October will likely see temperatures average below normal courtesy of a cold close to the month.

Out West, select low temperatures through 8 pm EDT included:

Billings: 5° (old record: 18°, 1997)
Casper: 5° (old record: 13°, 1997)
Cheyenne: 5° (tied record set in 1873)
Cut Bank, MT: -10°
Denver: 11°
Great Falls: 0°
Helena: 3°
Missoula, MT: -7° (old record: 10°, 1919) ***New Monthly Record***
Rapid City: 11°

A storm will likely bring a significant snowfall to parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and perhaps even portions of the Texas Panhandle tomorrow into Tuesday. As that storm heads eastward, Zeta will very likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast by midweek. As a result, late Thursday through Friday could see a potentially significant precipitation event in the region. The potential exists that cold air from eastern Canada could be drawn southward to produce at least some snowfall in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region.

November could commence on a cool note. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was -6.71.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.752.

On October 24 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.028 (RMM). The October 23-adjusted amplitude was 2.274.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.2°.

 

[CIK62]

The GFS, after much  deliberation with itself,  has settled on 10 straight AN days to start November.       The uncorrected average is 58degs., for the period.    There is almost no precipitation for the period being indicated for us.

November itself is looking AN everywhere in the US 48, with mostly linear flow from west to east.       A dip in the flow over southeast Canada, making for AN Trough,  might keep us closer to Normal than the rest of country.        Another boring '30' to endure?

 

[wdrag]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, is it actually the remnants of Zeta that will cause the snow N/W of the city?  And any wind potential with that?  Also, I have been hearing there is more TC potential after Zeta?

 

More TC after Zeta... (ETA seems likely early Nov down near FL-Bahamas). Zeta remnants involved here, though heaviest from Zeta itself should be s NJ/Delmarva. Wind 50 MPH for e LI Friday but indirectly Zeta in my opinion and a decent 850 LOW passes s of LI. Topic already started. 

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of October are averaging 53degs.       Making it 49degs., or about -3.0.

Month to date is:  59.9[+2.1].      October should end near 57.8degs., or about +1.0.

53*(93%RH) here at 6am, streets wet, foggy look, about 1mile.      59*(95%RH) by Noon.

EURO/GFS have about 2" through next Monday.     GEM has 3" and some sub-freezing lows here to end month.

btw:      In two short runs of the GFS, it has gone from 10 straight days in the 60's (as I noted late yesterday) to start November, to only 3.   

Tropics:    18.6N  84.3W.,     56.2N  38.5W--stretched out--headed for Europe.

 

[KEITH L.I]

11 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The GFS, after much  deliberation with itself,  has settled on 10 straight AN days to start November.       The uncorrected average is 58degs., for the period.    There is almost no precipitation for the period being indicated for us.

November itself is looking AN everywhere in the US 48, with mostly linear flow from west to east.       A dip in the flow over southeast Canada, making for AN Trough,  might keep us closer to Normal than the rest of country.        Another boring '30' to endure?

 

Just a reminder,those monthly's from CFS are usually overdone with warmth.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, KEITH L.I said:

Just a reminder,those monthly's from CFS are usually overdone with warmth.

even if you chopped that in half, it's still a mild pattern

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today mostly cloudy with some drizzle and scattered showers. It will be milder than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°
Newark: 61°
Philadelphia: 65°

A significant precipitation event followed by a brief shot of sharply colder air is likely toward the end of the week.

Out West, winterlike weather prevailed. Cheyenne picked up 14.0" snow. That broke the daily record of 5.7", which was set in 2011 and the October daily record of 8.9", which was set on October 22, 1906.

Record cold also prevailed in numerous locations including:

Bozeman, MT: -18° (old record: 11°, 2002)
Butte, MT: -18° (old record: 9°, 2002)
Casper: -7° (old record: 12°, 2002)
Cody, WY: -7° (old record: 5°, 1919)
Missoula, MT: -3° (old record: 15°, 2002)
Salt Lake City: 20° (old record: 22°, 1878)
Sheridan, WY: -10° (old record: 5°, 1913)

 

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chances of snow flurries making it down to the coast, Chris?

A very early first flakes of the season would match our recent years experience. 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 were all defined by the snowfall which occurred outside DJF met winter. The most impressive snowfall records were in the fall and spring.

March and April 2018

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2018	31.9	0
2	1967	23.3	1
3	2015	19.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1982	16.0	0
2	1996	9.6	0
3	2018	4.6	0

November 2018

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1898	19.0	0
2	1882	14.0	0
3	1938	12.8	0
4	2018	6.4	0

 

March 2019

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1967	21.8	0
2	1956	19.4	0
3	2015	18.6	0
-	2001	18.6	0
4	2005	18.5	0
5	2018	14.5	0
6	1993	13.7	0
7	2019	13.5	0

 

May 2020

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2020	T	0
-	1995	T	0
-	1977	T	0
-	1956	T	0
-	1946	T	0

 

[LibertyBell]

I cant remember the last time before May 2020 that we had a T of snow in May.  And if we do get a T of snow in October, that'll be the first time since 2011 I think?

2014-15 feels like an underrated winter, because that was excellent for both snow and cold in the second half.

March 2018 was a lot better at ISP than it was in NYC (and western Nassau for that matter).  Wow, ISP had 16" of snow in the April 1982 blizzard- or was that a combo of two storms?  If it was just from the blizzard, they doubled our totals on Western Long Island- I wonder why?  Everyone was cold enough for a lot of snow.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I cant remember the last time before May 2020 that we had a T of snow in May.  And if we do get a T of snow in October, that'll be the first time since 2011 I think?

2014-15 feels like an underrated winter, because that was excellent for both snow and cold in the second half.

May 1977 was the last time.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

May 1977 was the last time.

Yeah the famous thundersnow event that only dropped a T in NYC and Long Island but over a foot just north of us?

 

[Ericjcrash]

Lmao 

[Snowlover11]

its happening!!!!!

[wdrag]

0.17 here in Wantage since it began sprinkling here around 645PM last evening and measuring around 10PM. Pretty steady small drop rain now with .03 since 9A.

[TriPol]

Great. A 2011 redux.

[romba]

2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lmao 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

Great. A 2011 redux.

well it was either gonna be a October 2011 redux or a October 2012 redux....and the latter was far more destructive.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lmao 

that aint happening like that

[Allsnow]

Eps has two cold shots now for the weekend and next week. It’s very cold for next Tuesday with more of a pna rise now, which could be a sign of things to come this winter 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose in the upper 50s with some lower 60s today. The remainder of the closing week of October will likely see temperatures average below normal courtesy of a cold close to the month.

Out west, numerous daily record low temperatures were set. Some highlights:

Bozeman, MT: -20° (old record: 11°, 2002) ***New October Record***
Butte, MT: -18° (old record: 9°, 2002)
Casper: -7° (old record: 12°, 2002)
Cody, WY: -9° (old record: 5°, 1919)
Missoula, MT: -5° (old record: 15°, 2002)
Potomac, MT: -21° (old record: 5°, 2002)
Rapid City: -7° (old record: 2°, 1997)
Salt Lake City: 19° (old record: 22°, 1878)

At Lyman, WY, the temperature fell to -31°.

The system that brought an October record 14.0" snow to Cheyenne yesterday will likely bring a significant snowfall to parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and perhaps even portions of the Texas Panhandle into tomorrow. As that storm heads eastward, Zeta will very likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast by midweek. As a result, late Thursday through Friday could see a potentially significant precipitation event in the region. The potential exists that cold air from eastern Canada could be drawn southward to produce at least some snowfall in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region.

November could commence on a cool note with the first week winding up somewhat cooler than normal. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was -2.84.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.141.

On October 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.993 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.027.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.1°.

 

[nycwinter]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

6700 feet above sea level...

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

6700 feet above sea level...

Still impressive-heck -30 in January is impressive.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

 

I see the AGW crowd coming out on Twitter lol.

[uncle W]

not bad with very little sea ice to work with...