wdrag Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Wantage NJ 0.06 so far since 330A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 63degs. Making it 58degs., or about -5.0. This GFS run has multiple days in the 80's by mid-month. It had a run in September like this with 7 80's, 1 90 and multiple lows in the 70's. It failed to materialize. Oh, yes, the Tropics again. Mischief at 18N 85W? 59*(66%RH) here at 6am, overcast, wet streets. 57* by 8am. 61*(65%RH) by 2pm, p. sunny. 67*(55%RH) by 4pm. 71*(45%RH) at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Morning thoughts... Clouds and a few scattered showers are possible this morning. The sun will return during the afternoon. Temperatures will be lower than they were yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° The first week of October will likely be cooler than normal overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Wantage NJ 0.06 so far since 330A. 0.09” Event total in Bethlehem Twp. PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 ECMWF: In case you didn't see this... All the standard ECMWF web charts will become freely available on the ECMWF web site from 7th October 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Wantage NJ 0.11 330A-now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 57 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Clearing line worked through and up to 66. Cooler weekend and mainly (aside from Monday AM) looking dry. A bit of a warm up Tue/ Wed/ before Thu and Friday chill brings first frost and freezes (widespread). Longer range looking at more sustained warming towards the 14th. Drier look overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 On 10/1/2020 at 12:50 PM, forkyfork said: also looks like the nor'easter threat went way down. the pac jet is too much for models after day 4/5 The North Atlantic Jet is also making headlines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Reached a pleasant 71* here at 5pm. Not quite the Record 93 of exactly one year ago today. I was on the beach that day and described it here as Hot with frequent Dust Devils out of the west. Down to 68* by 6pm. 59* by 11pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and cool. Highs will generally reach the middle 60s. Overall, the opening week of October will see generally cooler than normal conditions. No exceptional cold is likely. Warmer readings could return during the following week ahead of a renewed push of cool air. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. October could also be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +18.11. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.989. On October 1 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.534 (RMM). The September 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.498. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 10/2 PHL: 69 EWR: 69 New Brnswck: 68 JFK: 68 LGA: 68 ACY: 68 TEB: 67 BLM: 67 TTN: 66 NYC: 65 ISP: 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Current temp is down to 55 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Current temp is 46 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 It looks like quiet weather will continue for the foreseeable future at least according to the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 63degs. Making it 58degs., or about -4.5. 53*(69%RH) here at 6am. 54* at 7am, m. clear. 60* by 11:30am. 66* by 3pm. 67* by 4pm. 68* by 5pm. 61* by 10pm. The Tropics: 19N 87W---a Central America cross-over traitor? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Much cooler pattern to start October than last year. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 553 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2019 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET YESTERDAY AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 86 SET IN 2013...AND THE OLD MONTHLY RECORD OF 93 SET ON OCTOBER 5 1941. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 549 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2019 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET YESTERDAY AT KENNEDY NY... A RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 85 SET IN 2013...AND THE OLD MONTHLY RECORD OF 90 SET ON OCTOBER 8 2007. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 551 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2019 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET YESTERDAY AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 87 SET IN 2002...AND THE OLD MONTHLY RECORD OF 93 SET ON OCTOBER 5 1941. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will feature brilliant sunshine. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s and perhaps upper 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 67° The first week of October will likely be cooler than normal overall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Getting into the low 50's this time of year in NYC is not a significant feat...even upper 40's...low 40's upper 30's would be... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 63/43 off a low of 42. Beautiful day o tap and overall gorgeous period of weather looking more likely the next 7 - 10 days. A bit of a back and forth the coming 7 days with a few warm /near or above normal Mon- Wed followed by coldest weather since last April and first widespread frosts/freezed Thu (10/8) - Fri (10/9). Warmup 10/10 - 10/13 but perhaps similar to several times this past spring and summer warmest air goes north of the areas. Overall warm period mid month. It will be interesting to see how long the dry conditions persist and if dry turns wet later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Looks like the all or nothing rainfall pattern since September 10th will continue. 3”+ deluges on September 10th and 30th with a dry pattern in the middle. So it may be a while before our next big rainfall event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle 60s. Five photos from a sun-swept New York Botanical Garden: 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Today was a golden autumn day filled with sunshine and pleasant readings in the middle and upper 60s. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and somewhat cooler. Meanwhile, Phoenix registered its 3rd 105° or above temperature of October. That broke the monthly record of 2 days, which was set in 1980. As a result, 5 of the 11 (45%) cases have occurred in 2000 or later. Records go back to 1895. Overall, the opening week of October will see generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions. No exceptional cold is likely. Warmer readings could return during the following week ahead of a renewed push of cool air. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +10.44. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.967. On October 2 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.539. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 10/3 LGA: 69 EWR: 69 ACY: 69 BLM: 68 JFK: 68 ISP: 68 New Brnswck: 67 TEB: 67 PHL: 66 NYC: 66 TTN: 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Another overnight low of 46 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 65degs. Making it 60degs., or about -2.5. 55*(66%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 60* by 10am. 65* by Noon. 68* by 3pm. 69* by 5pm. 65* by 7pm. GFS is dry for the next two weeks. After a T pop next weekend, reaching 60 for a high may become difficult. Remember the GFS tends to show T's that are way too high around here anyway---and it is having trouble getting there. Meanwhile, Tampa has at least started off BN this month, in its effort to end a 29 month string w/o going BN. Just want to note the OP's and ENS. for Week 2 are completely different around here. Tropics: 22N 88W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will partly to mostly sunny and pleasant conditions. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 68° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely develop and continue through midweek. Rainfall will likely remain below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: I started a snowfall season thread for anyone that is interested. it was 33 years ago yesterday a major snowstorm hit upstate ny.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Up to 58 with some clouds. Overall looking like a splendid next few days Sunday - Wed (10/7) sunny and dry and near normal, before a 36 - 48 hour chill Thu (10/9) - Fri (10/10). First widespread frost freeze Thurday night. Warmer times looking mush more likely as WC ridge breaks down and height rise along the east in a more sustained fashion. 10/12 and beyond. Could be some 80s sprinkled in just 48 hours after 30s on Sun (10/12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 65degs. Making it 60degs., or about -2.5. 55*(66%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 60* by 10am. GFS is dry for the next two weeks. After a T pop next weekend, reaching 60 for a high may become difficult. Remember the GFS tends to show T's that are way too high around here anyway---and it is having trouble getting there. Meanwhile, Tampa has at least started off BN this month, in its effort to end a 29 month string w/o going BN. Just want to note the OP's and ENS. for Week 2 are completely different around here. Tropics: 22N 88W. Looks overall warm to perhaps much above normal once past Fri 10/10. If guidance continues with progression some upper 70s or even an 80 would not shock me in the 10/11 - 10/16 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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