uncle W Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 getting record highs in late Oct and Nov is not a good sign but there have been some years with them and it still got cold in Dec... 1947 1968 1975 1993 are examples... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 The overnight low made it down to 37 here. Current temp 63 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Warmer temperatures will return starting tomorrow. Temperatures will then likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -7.74. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.697. On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.588 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.711. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7°. Finally, on October 17, Arctic sea ice extent remained below 5 million square kilometers (JAXA), further extending the record for the latest such figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 This month is a lock now to finish above avg. below avg October’s don’t happen anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 sometimes during la nina years there is a storm with a small area with heavy snow...like Feb 1989 in Atlantic city when they got a foot of snow...NYC virga...Feb 1974 when Freehold NJ got 10" while NYC only 2"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Can you share the method behind prediction? I ask because I am always curious how people get to a specific range several months out Hey, I really wanted to know how you got that range. You took it sarcastically. Sad. Like this follow up post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Hey, I really wanted to know how you got that range. You took it sarcastically. Sad. Like this follow up post So why is this winter going to be long? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 66degs. Making it 61degs., or +5.0(remember this is really +10). GFS has 8 70-Degree Days in a row starting tomorrow. What last week looked like snow near the 26th., is now a 70-Degree Day. 70's come right back in November now too. Latest DJF Outlook makes an AN Winter more likely. Now you must put at risk a $1.75 instead of $1.60 to win $1.00 when you bet on an AN Winter. One more run before the heatwave actually starts, it would seem. The summer outlook at this range was a $4.30 risk and we appropriately ended in the Top Ten. 57*(75%RH) here at 5am. 56*(78%RH) at 6am., scattered thin clouds. 55*(80%RH) at 7am. 60* at 9am. 62* at 10am. 64* at 11am. 65* at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Warm in the East and cold with record early snows in Montana this week. Very familiar La Niña background pattern in recent years. The SE Ridge or WAR continues to dominate. GEFS temperature departures for the next 7 days 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Seems like it’s always below normal in the upper mountain west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Seems like it’s always below normal in the upper mountain west It has been the only cooler than average part of the US since the Super El Niño in 2016. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will sunny and quite warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in many parts of the region. Some locations could reach 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 71° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Good Monday morning all, 27 has been started by NHC. Going to head nw for a few days, and may not recurve newd til late Friday. Pressure drops down to the 950s or 960's (MB) and intensity forecasts continue to increase in NHC guidance. This should be interesting near Bermuda and then the longer period (11second?) 7+ foot (GFS guidance) e-se swells arriving east coast (including Atlantic LI-NJ) late in the week. Going to be a rough ride in the western and then northern Atlantic the next 5-8 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 18 hours ago, uncle W said: getting record highs in late Oct and Nov is not a good sign but there have been some years with them and it still got cold in Dec... 1947 1968 1975 1993 are examples... 1993 is a classic example....the classic couplet for snowy winters here is cold October mild November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 58 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good Monday morning all, 27 has been started by NHC. Going to head nw for a few days, and may not recurve newd til late Friday. Pressure drops down to the 950s or 960's (MB) and intensity forecasts continue to increase in NHC guidance. This should be interesting near Bermuda and then the longer period (11second?) 7+ foot (GFS guidance) e-se swells arriving east coast (including Atlantic LI-NJ) late in the week. Going to be a rough ride in the western and then northern Atlantic the next 5-8 days. going to be our 10th hurricane. Second system down near Central America chances of developing now getting less? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Today will sunny and quite warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in many parts of the region. Some locations could reach 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 71° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend. it's actually completely overcast here in the Poconos, will be getting back into town this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 13 hours ago, uncle W said: sometimes during la nina years there is a storm with a small area with heavy snow...like Feb 1989 in Atlantic city when they got a foot of snow...NYC virga...Feb 1974 when Freehold NJ got 10" while NYC only 2"... a general theme we see with these kinds of winters is usually a cold start to the season (November-mid December) a big thaw around Christmas to New Years and a generally mild January and February and then a cold and possibly snowy end to the season in March into early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: going to be our 10th hurricane. Second system down near Central America chances of developing now getting less? Yes on Caribbean less chance... only 2 or 3 members have that option. This Bermuda storm I think is going to be pretty notable and may make some news for sea going vessels, and I could eventually see the need for High Surf Advisories parts of north Atlantic coast around Fri or Sat. I'm buying into the higher end storm scenarios though that doesn't mean it will be that strong. On the Caribbean while probably nothing or minor... (25th-28th), the oncoming trough next weekend and early next week may need to be monitored for a long fetch of tropical moisture at least from GMEX and maybe even southward to the Yucatan. We will be in the baroclinic zone so something sizable could occur sometime between the 25th-28th. Today, I won't comment further on the Atlantic... just don't know for sure and leaving this to NHC and the assorted NHC intensity guidance applications. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Warm in the East and cold with record early snows in Montana this week. Very familiar La Niña background pattern in recent years. The SE Ridge or WAR continues to dominate. GEFS temperature departures for the next 7 days Going to be a early start to a big winter in the upper Midwest. MSP is forecasting its first accumulating snow of the winter tomorrow. As long as Canada isn’t flooded with pac air(aka last January) they will have a big winter in Chicago, msp, and Wisconsin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: it's actually completely overcast here in the Poconos, will be getting back into town this afternoon There are a lot of clouds to the north and west of Philadelphia, most of New Jersey and NYC’s northern and western suburbs. Tomorrow will see more sunshine there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 the 0z euro has barely any rain for the next 10 days 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Going to be a early start to a big winter in the upper Midwest. MSP is forecasting its first accumulating snow of the winter tomorrow. As long as Canada isn’t flooded with pac air(aka last January) they will have a big winter in Chicago, msp, and Wisconsin. 2nd big snowfall October in a row for the Great Falls area. Time Series Summary for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1925 18.5 0 2 2019 17.0 0 3 1975 16.6 0 4 1919 15.5 0 5 2020 14.2 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 39 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the 0z euro has barely any rain for the next 10 days Looks like all the rain dries up in Central PA and Upstate NY before it ever makes it here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: 2nd big snowfall October in a row for the Great Falls area. Time Series Summary for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1925 18.5 0 2 2019 17.0 0 3 1975 16.6 0 4 1919 15.5 0 5 2020 14.2 13 Well, I guess we can say it will be snowing in the places where it's supposed to be snowing lol. People have to come to the realization that the east coast doesn't usually get that much snow unless you're up in New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: There are a lot of clouds to the north and west of Philadelphia, most of New Jersey and NYC’s northern and western suburbs. Tomorrow will see more sunshine there. Don, is this going to be a "dirty" warm up, in the sense that while it will be warm, we wont be getting much sunshine? I will be back on Long Island this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, is this going to be a "dirty" warm up, in the sense that while it will be warm, we wont be getting much sunshine? I will be back on Long Island this afternoon. We are getting a late October version of our recent summer warm ups. Clouds, high dew points for this time of year, and onshore flow. Same old pattern with the big ridge parked near New England. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/19/2020 1200 UTC DT /OCT 19/OCT 20 /OCT 21 /OCT 22 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 58 74 63 76 64 TMP 64 64 61 60 60 60 61 68 72 71 68 67 66 65 66 71 74 73 70 67 67 DPT 49 51 52 53 55 57 59 61 61 61 62 62 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 62 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV BK WDR 14 15 14 13 11 11 15 19 22 23 10 04 06 07 14 19 20 19 19 21 29 WSP 05 06 04 03 02 01 03 04 05 05 03 02 02 02 03 05 08 08 06 04 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 we get some westerly component to the sfc flow wednesday so ewr might have a shot at 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 2nd big snowfall October in a row for the Great Falls area. Time Series Summary for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1925 18.5 0 2 2019 17.0 0 3 1975 16.6 0 4 1919 15.5 0 5 2020 14.2 13 Des Moines, Iowa with 7 inches of snow this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Des Moines, Iowa with 7 inches of snow this morning Didn't even see a single WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Didn't even see a single WWA. Crazy! Euro now has 6-8 for MSP tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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