bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said: Bluewave, is this La Nina favored to be weak or strong? Craig Allen yesterday mentioned that we are looking at a strong LaNina. He disagreed with NOAA's outlook for this upcoming winter. La Ninas since 2000 usually end up warmer than average regardless of whether they are weak, moderate, or strong. NYC 00-01...weak.........-1.6 05-06...weak.........+2.2 07-08...strong.......+1.3 08-09..weak...........-0.9 10-11..strong.........-2.3 11-12..moderate...+5.4 16-17..weak...........+4.2 17-18..moderate...+1.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: La Ninas since 2000 usually end up warmer and snowier than average regardless of whether they are weak, moderate, or strong. NYC 00-01...weak.........-1.6 05-06...weak.........+2.2 07-08...strong.......+1.3 08-09..weak...........-0.9 10-11..strong.........-2.3 11-12..moderate...+5.4 16-17..weak...........+4.2 17-18..moderate...+1.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 The Niña looks like it will be strong this year but the warm waters off the west coast could really help us this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, uncle W said: We have been warm and snowy regardless of La Niña, neutral, or El Niño last 20 years or so. The main difference between La Niña and El Niño has been the timing. La Ninas generally start out with the coolest departures early and transition to warm later on. 17-18 had coldest week of winter before January 5th flowed by 80° in February. El Niño is reversed. +13 during December 2015 followed by the historic late January blizzard and below 0° day for NYC in February. The other difference is the El Niño’s usually have a strong STJ and La Ninas a strong NPAC Jet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 41 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: It’s cold again. It was 47 outside my window this morning. Need heat now Windows open and beautiful, heat??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 I don't think I've seen frost advisories issued before with predicted lows at or above 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: La Ninas since 2000 usually end up warmer than average regardless of whether they are weak, moderate, or strong. NYC 00-01...weak.........-1.6 05-06...weak.........+2.2 07-08...strong.......+1.3 08-09..weak...........-0.9 10-11..strong.........-2.3 11-12..moderate...+5.4 16-17..weak...........+4.2 17-18..moderate...+1.1 Going with a combo of 1973-74 and 2007-08, what kind of a winter would that yield? Have to be careful about 70s winters as that was an era with much less overall precip than what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: We have been warm and snowy regardless of La Niña, neutral, or El Niño last 20 years or so. The main difference between La Niña and El Niño has been the timing. La Ninas generally start out with the coolest departures early and transition to warm later on. 17-18 had coldest week of winter before January 5th flowed by 80° in February. El Niño is reversed. +13 during December 2015 followed by the historic late January blizzard and below 0° day for NYC in February. The other difference is the El Niño’s usually have a strong STJ and La Ninas a strong NPAC Jet. didn't we switch back to a cold and snowy March after the 80 in February though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Crystal clear skies and temperatures in the upper 50s prevailed this afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: didn't we switch back to a cold and snowy March after the 80 in February though? there have been a few la nina years that started cold in December and January but moderated plenty in February before ending with a snowy March...best examples are... 1955-56... 1983-84... 2017-18... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Wood stove is cranking with some seasoned cherry. Smells great. Supposed to touch 32 tonight, it’ll be close. 47 now. This could be it for the ‘growing season’. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, uncle W said: there have been a few la nina years that started cold in December and January but moderated plenty in February before ending with a snowy March...best examples are... 1955-56... 1983-84... 2017-18... Yup 1955-56 was the primary analog used for 2017-18. That was one extreme turnaround in March too. I wonder why that analog isn't being used more this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said: Wood stove is cranking with some seasoned cherry. Smells great. Supposed to touch 32 tonight, it’ll be close. 47 now. This could be it for the ‘growing season’. Maybe not. I'm in the Poconos right now and there was a big frost here last night but nothing died. I think you need it to get to 28 or lower for a few hours to have a killing freeze unless you're talking about really sensitive plants like tomatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe not. I'm in the Poconos right now and there was a big frost here last night but nothing died. I think you need it to get to 28 or lower for a few hours to have a killing freeze unless you're talking about really sensitive plants like tomatoes. Yeah, I've always noticed that a little frost doesn't do much damage to the vegetable garden. It usually takes an actual freeze to end the growing season. We have a frost advisory here and the temp could get down to about 36 tonight, but I'm not too worried. My pole lima beans are producing like crazy right now, and I'm hoping they can keep going for at least 2 more weeks. Tomatoes, peppers and eggplants are still producing decently too. The light frost threat tonight shouldn't be a problem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah, I've always noticed that a little frost doesn't do much damage to the vegetable garden. It usually takes an actual freeze to end the growing season. We have a frost advisory here and the temp could get down to about 36 tonight, but I'm not too worried. My pole lima beans are producing like crazy right now, and I'm hoping they can keep going for at least 2 more weeks. Tomatoes, peppers and eggplants are still producing decently too. The light frost threat tonight shouldn't be a problem. Yeah and once we get past tonight we may not have a frost or freeze until November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 52 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah, I've always noticed that a little frost doesn't do much damage to the vegetable garden. It usually takes an actual freeze to end the growing season. We have a frost advisory here and the temp could get down to about 36 tonight, but I'm not too worried. My pole lima beans are producing like crazy right now, and I'm hoping they can keep going for at least 2 more weeks. Tomatoes, peppers and eggplants are still producing decently too. The light frost threat tonight shouldn't be a problem. i've seen the lantanas at my parents' house make it to december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Tomorrow will be another sunny but cool day. Afterward, warmer temperatures will return. Temperatures will then likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -9.67. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.378. On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.695 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 2.791. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°. Finally, on October 16, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.929 million square kilometers (JAXA). That is the latest Arctic sea ice extent has been below 5 million square kilometers. The progression of this record has been: October 8, 2007 (first year when Arctic sea ice extent fell below 5 million square kilometers); October 13, 2012; and, most recently October 14, 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 44 currently with a dp of 36. Should make it into the 30’s for the first time this fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 10/17 EWR: 63 LGA: 62 JFK: 62 New Brnswck: 62 PHL: 61 ACY: 61 TEB: 61 ISP: 60 BLM: 60 NYC: 59 TTN: 59 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Still a slight breeze keeping the temp freefall from reaching terminal velocity. The high is sliding a bit too far south to optimize radiational cooling it appears. 36/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 18 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Still a slight breeze keeping the temp freefall from reaching terminal velocity. The high is sliding a bit too far south to optimize radiational cooling it appears. 36/34 37/35, it’s been calm here for about an hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 Down to 40 in Syosset & Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 43 here, lowest so far this season, this is supposed to be our low temp but I’m cautious as I still have tropical plants outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 35/33 right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Current temp is down to 39 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 got down to 41 in yonkers, back up to 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 60degs. Making it 55degs., or about +4.0(remember this is really predicting +9.0) There are 6 or 7, 70-Degree Days, still incoming on the EURO/GFS in the next 10 days. BN end to month erased? Models S_CK. There is still a front sweeping by the 27th., but there is no storm for it to phase with anymore. 52* (55%RH) here at 6am. 51* at 6:30am. 60* by 11am. 63* by 3pm. 64* during 4pm-5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 ...KFOK @ 32*..got down to 31* @ 4am.. i'm @ 36.3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Current temp is 38 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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