Cfa Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 0.16” here so far. All drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 0.20 Wantage NJ since around 3 or 4A, most of it after 10A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Looks like a narrow sweet spot with 1.24" here on si. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Let’s hope so. The winter could be revealing. It looks like they may have corrected the longer range cold bias on the parallel GFS v16. But now it seems to have more of a warmer bias instead. So probably fewer long range incorrect snowstorm forecasts. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 A fair amount of discussion about the 25th-26th... am considering a topic since it's amped with potential, but that this could still easily be a marine storm once past FL. I'd like to see more ensemble agreement on a storm up the coast, supported by 30% or greater prob for 2"+ along the E Coast. If that were to occur, it's probably a few days off but imo, little doubt (in my mind) the models are onto two more tropical systems 19th-26th in the W ATLC. One other thing...while most of the debate is about 1) whether a storm, and then 2) either out to sea or up the coast... I can visualize jet stream pattern adjustments that permit E GMEX and northward up the W side of Apps. Just very-very-very early. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Up to 1.00" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 43 minutes ago, wdrag said: A fair amount of discussion about the 25th-26th... am considering a topic since it's amped with potential, but that this could still easily be a marine storm once past FL. I'd like to see more ensemble agreement on a storm up the coast, supported by 30% or greater prob for 2"+ along the E Coast. If that were to occur, it's probably a few days off but imo, little doubt (in my mind) the models are onto two more tropical systems 19th-26th in the W ATLC. One other thing...while most of the debate is about 1) whether a storm, and then 2) either out to sea or up the coast... I can visualize jet stream pattern adjustments that permit E GMEX and northward up the W side of Apps. Just very-very-very early. It seems more often than not there's something to track the last week of October. Some certainly delivered, 2011 Snow bomb, 2012 Sandy, Halloween storm of 1991 etc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 I think Epsilon may get named within 48 hrs. Am posting on tropical page a couple of graphics. It probably won't a direct influence on our area except for swells... however, its eventual development may strengthen the WAR, and provide an even more favorable flow pattern for the 25tth-26th? We'll see, Post goes up by 525PM, unless it's already done there by a tropics poster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1.08 rainy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 @donsutherland1 KNYC rainfall today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 43 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @donsutherland1 KNYC rainfall today? 1.26”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 1.26”. less rain both to the east and west Don? How much at JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: I think Epsilon may get named within 48 hrs. Am posting on tropical page a couple of graphics. It probably won't a direct influence on our area except for swells... however, its eventual development may strengthen the WAR, and provide an even more favorable flow pattern for the 25tth-26th? We'll see, Post goes up by 525PM, unless it's already done there by a tropics poster. Walt, could you look into 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: I think Epsilon may get named within 48 hrs. Am posting on tropical page a couple of graphics. It probably won't a direct influence on our area except for swells... however, its eventual development may strengthen the WAR, and provide an even more favorable flow pattern for the 25tth-26th? We'll see, Post goes up by 525PM, unless it's already done there by a tropics poster. Yep, that was my thought also and the reason the Euro is playing catch up is that it hand't developed the Bermuda storm as strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: It seems more often than not there's something to track the last week of October. Some certainly delivered, 2011 Snow bomb, 2012 Sandy, Halloween storm of 1991 etc You also have to look at the lack of arctic ice in 2012 and the comparison to this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 hours ago, doncat said: Looks like a narrow sweet spot with 1.24" here on si. I'll vouch for that...I had 1.25"... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 In the wake of the cold front responsible for today's rain and falling temperatures, a fair but chilly weekend is in store. However, temperatures will likely return to normal and then above normal conditions early next week. This warmth will likely persist through the remainder of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -6.13. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.378. On October 15 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.779 (RMM). The October 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.350. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°. Finally, the NOAA's annual winter outlook can be found here: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 32 minutes ago, uncle W said: I'll vouch for that...I had 1.25"... No, wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Walt, could you look into 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28? Had some help from there tropical board and then did a check. Attached graphics have an answer... Post review in 2006 added a previously undocumented storm (#19). Wikipedia first pgh covers the late added storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: less rain both to the east and west Don? How much at JFK? Through 8 pm: Islip: 0.25” JFK: 1.26” LGA: 1.31” NYC: 1.26” Newark: 0.92” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 back half of the system is weaker than modeled....steady rain ended here a few hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 10/16 ACY: 68 BLM: 66 ISP: 66 PHL: 66 LGA: 66 NYC: 66 New Brnswck: 65 JFK: 64 EWR: 64 TEB: 63 TTN: 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: back half of the system is weaker than modeled....steady rain ended here a few hours ago Huh? Your area and LI should do well tonight. Radar looks solid for a rainy night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Huh? Your area and LI should do well tonight. Radar looks solid for a rainy night Rain is blossoming pretty well currently, should be wet from this area on east for the next few hours at least. This system overall is affecting everyone just about equally-the back edge of this seems to be about exactly where the first batch today ended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1.43" total here for today...63/49 temp split (Leftover high). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 49 and rain. Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Picked up 1.11" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Not considering a topic for the 25th-27th for at least the next 2-5 days, till the tropics get sorted out, and the eastern USA currently modeled positive tilt trough sharpens, which it may not. We in the NYC forum appear to be in a baroclinic zone that last week of October. Just need to wait out all the model variations for a few days til a more likely model-derived consensus idea of future reality becomes apparent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 64degs. Making it 59degs., or about +3.0. BN period keeps slipping forward. 48*(80%RH) here at 6am. 47* at 7am. 53*(48%RH) by Noon. 58*(38%RH) by 3pm. 62* by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Temp down to 44 here now. Coldest night so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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