Dan76 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 The post above you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 The last 3 days of October are averaging 47degs. Making it 44degs., or about -9.0. There may be 3 to 6 daily low readings in the 30's prior to these being neutralized by a string of 60 degree highs, Nov. 05-12. Month to date is 59.4[+2.0]. October should end near 58.0[+1.1]. 57*(82%RH) here at 6am, street wet. Zeta remnants: About 2.0"-2.3" for the three main models. Low T's the next 7 days are EURO 31*, CMC 31*, GFS 35*. Tropics: 34.7N 86.3W-weakening in Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 A few years doesnt make a trend, but... Anyone else notice that the first freeze has been trending back towards early November after that horrific El Nino? I just point it out because for years it was trending in the other direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Morning thoughts... Tropical Storm Zeta will race northeastward and then east-northeastward toward the Middle Atlantic region before moving off the Delmarva Peninsula or perhaps New Jersey coast out into the Atlantic Ocean this evening. It will be increasingly windy with periods of heavy rain. A general 1”-3” rainfall is likely. The temperature will gradually fall from its 7 AM figures. 7 AM temperatures around the region included: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Tonight into tomorrow, portions of northern Pennsylvania, central New York State extending down into parts of the Hudson Valley, and central New England could see some snow. Precipitation will end tomorrow and it will be blustery with readings likely staying in the 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 If NYC can drop to 34° or lower before the end of October, then it would be the first time since 2011. ..New York City... Central Park, NY Rain Rain Sunny Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Sunny /52 44/45 34/49 41/58 39/48 36/51 40/58 /100 100/80 10/00 00/30 30/10 00/00 00/10 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 2019 43 0 2018 38 0 2017 42 0 2016 38 0 2015 35 0 2014 42 0 2013 40 0 2012 38 0 2011 33 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Some Sun would be nice! Love a hard freeze to kill the bugs and plants, then a warm up to enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: If NYC can drop to 34° or lower before the end of October, then it would be the first time since 2011. ..New York City... Central Park, NY Rain Rain Sunny Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Sunny /52 44/45 34/49 41/58 39/48 36/51 40/58 /100 100/80 10/00 00/30 30/10 00/00 00/10 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 2019 43 0 2018 38 0 2017 42 0 2016 38 0 2015 35 0 2014 42 0 2013 40 0 2012 38 0 2011 33 0 Looks like the cold coming Monday doesn't look like we'll get into the 20s anymore? I've seen forecasted low temps coming up- more like low to mid 30s now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 25 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Impressive uniform slug of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Picked up 0.84" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like the cold coming Monday doesn't look like we'll get into the 20s anymore? I've seen forecasted low temps coming up- more like low to mid 30s now? Yeah, Saturday morning may be our lowest temperature for a while. The early next week cool down not looking as impressive. Then we get a moderation in temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Frz warning here for tomorrow night. Yep, next weeks cold shot has modified. I doubt the city and boroughs get below 32 anytime soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 the monday cold shot looks too windy and it's not the best direction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Up to 1.26" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: interesting that coastal Delaware and Atlantic City and Cape May have a freeze warning and long island and NYC dont lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 GFS still going with 10 straight 60-Degree Days, some of them in the 70's, starting November 05. JMA continues November disaster till the near the end of that month , so mid-November might not be the finish of the 60's. Yet another TS might be here to interrupt the AN by the 13th. Today just a disgusting rain with temps. in the low 50's all the way. Now 53*(96%RH) at 5:30pm. Finally got below 50......49*(95% RH) by 8pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Off topic , but what Android App ..paid is fine would give me the best access to the NAM, Euro, GFS, CMC, HRRR etc? Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: interesting that coastal Delaware and Atlantic City and Cape May have a freeze warning and long island and NYC dont lol I can see coastal NJ/DE avoiding a freeze while the inland sections of those counties don’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Tropical Storm Zeta has already brought a soaking rain to the region. Through 8 pm EDT, rainfall totals include: Allentown: 1.20" Baltimore: 2.16" Bridgeport: 1.11" Harrisburg: 1.07" Islip: 1.14" New York City: 1.41" Newark: 1.47" Philadelphia: 1.51" Washington, DC: 2.18" Zeta is racing east-northeastward at 55 mph and will be moving back over the Atlantic Ocean. As it heads out to sea, much colder air from eastern Canada will be drawn into its circulation. At the same time, another area of rain that stretches from eastern Missouri to western New York State will head toward the region. As a result, at least some snowfall is likely in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State down to parts of the Hudson Valley, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region. The remainder of the region will see periods of rain well into tomorrow. November will likely commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -13.93. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.828. On October 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.266 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.628. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Not sure if anyone noted the 8th Anniversary of Hurricane Sandy tonight. My lights had been out here in Coney Island for two hours already by this time (10:15pm)with 64 hours to go. I am in a high rise so I had no water to boot and was getting a lot exercise on my staircases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Already into the 11-day powerless odyssey here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Picked up 1.36" of rain for the day. Current temp 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 The last 2 days of October are averaging 43degs. Making it 41degs., or -12.0. GFS has 7 straight 60's starting about Nov. 04. Now the 12Z GFS is back to a real bore fest of 10 straight 60's and no precipitation. Month to date is 59.1[+1.9]. October should end at 57.9[+1.0]. 44*(94%RH) here at 6am. 41*(91%RH) by 8am, rain. 40*(93%RH) at 9am. 39* by 11am. Back to 40* by Noon. 43*(73%RH) by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Interesting Monday Nov 2: Lots of wind... scattered gusts within 5 MPH of 50? Also scattered snow showers Monday night into early Tuesday with slight chance of a skiff of snow cover for a couple of spots of the I84 corridor high terrain? Big trough aloft digging into the northeast Monday, departing Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 7:15 AM, a cold rain was falling across parts of the region. In parts of northern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State and central New England, snow was falling. At Albany, it was 30° with light snow. Likely daytime high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 44° Philadelphia: 46° After a cold start, tomorrow will be fair and chilly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 32.9° and Snowing moderately and I'm only 45 miles north of NYC. Beginning to stick to deck and some grassy areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 No surprise that we are seeing another very early season snow with the North American snow cover extent setting a new October record. This is our 5th snow event by mid-November since 2008. This includes the late October events in 2008 and 2011 along with November 2012 and 2018. Let me know if I am missing one from the northern parts of our forum. My guess is that this is related to the steep October sea ice decline since 2007. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: No surprise that we are seeing another very early season snow with the North American snow cover extent setting a new October record. This is our 5th snow event by mid-November since 2008. This includes the late October events in 2008 and 2011 along with November 2012 and 2018. Let me know if I am missing one from the northern parts of our forum. My guess is that this is related to the steep October sea ice decline since 2007. This is certainly a repeating process the last few years, and even going further back, as you mention. Wonder if we transition back to a colder pattern after November 20th and repeat the last couple Decembers which featured colder weather, but also an abrupt change after December 20th to much warmer right in time for the holidays. Possibly the next increase in NA snow cover coincidences with increased ridging out West and a improved MJO progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 11 hours ago, CIK62 said: Not sure if anyone noted the 8th Anniversary of Hurricane Sandy tonight. My lights had been out here in Coney Island for two hours already by this time (10:15pm)with 64 hours to go. I am in a high rise so I had no water to boot and was getting a lot exercise on my staircases. A little ironic remnants of a Tropical system here on the same day. Also yday a loose crane was spinning around in midtown sending chunks of metal to the street, reminds me of the damaged crane during Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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