October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Brian5671]

Just now, gravitylover said:

Fog is thicker and everything is now soaked. A half hour ago when I posted the paved surfaces were dry but now it's so thick that it's misting and has wet those down too. It's warm with temp at 57.

same exact situation here, had some drizzle/mist/low clouds.  Drizzle seems to be ending now though

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will partly to mostly cloudy, but mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 75°

Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Fog is thicker and everything is now soaked. A half hour ago when I posted the paved surfaces were dry but now it's so thick that it's misting and has wet those down too. It's warm with temp at 57.

The 60s dew points returned right on schedule. Some spots may challenge their warmest daily minimums next few days.

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   10/20/2020  0600 UTC                      
 DT /OCT  20      /OCT  21                /OCT  22             /     
 HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 
 X/N              72          63          77          63       75    
 TMP  62 66 70 70 67 66 66 65 66 72 75 74 71 68 67 65 65 69 73 66 61 
 DPT  59 60 60 60 61 61 63 63 63 64 64 64 64 62 60 59 58 55 52 50 54 
 CLD  OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV BK BK SC SC CL 
 WDR  10 16 21 21 02 03 06 07 12 20 20 21 19 22 23 31 35 36 01 05 05 
 WSP  01 04 04 04 03 02 02 01 01 06 09 09 05 04 04 04 05 07 06 05 05 

Newark Area, NJ
Version: 15.4 (created 2020-07-31)
Period of record: 1931 through 2019

 

10/21	62 in 1984	62 in 1979	58 in 2016
10/22	64 in 1979	63 in 1984	62 in 1970

 

 

 

[BucksCO_PA]

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

1988-89 snowstorms in this area ...

12/13-14/1988.....10.4" Islip LI...

1/6/1989.................5.0"...Central Park...

2/24/1989.............12.3" Atlantic City...

3/6/1989.................5.0" Brooklyn...

 

Serious gradient with that FEB 1989 storm, 12.3" at the AC airport in Pomona which is 8-9 miles inland from the city. The city itself recorded 19", nearby Somers Point had 18" & down the road portions of coastal Cape May County had up to 24". Most likely true blizzard conditions along the immediate coast. Another 15 miles inland from the AC airport Hammonton recorded less than an inch.

Setup for that storm was very cold airmass that set records from MI down to FL. FEB 1989 is the snowiest month on record for Norfolk & Wallops Island, VA. 

Hard to analog much from the 80's as we're light years away from that background state. Looking back at OCT 1988 that was the 7th coldest OCT on record for the NE region

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Serious gradient with that FEB 1989 storm, 12.3" at the AC airport in Pomona which is 8-9 miles inland from the city. The city itself recorded 19", nearby Somers Point had 18" & down the road portions of coastal Cape May County had up to 24". Most likely true blizzard conditions along the immediate coast. Another 15 miles inland from the AC airport Hammonton recorded less than an inch.

Setup for that storm was very cold airmass that set records from MI down to FL. FEB 1989 is the snowiest month on record for Norfolk & Wallops Island, VA. 

Hard to analog much from the 80's as we're light years away from that background state. Looking back at OCT 1988 that was the 7th coldest OCT on record for the NE region

Dont remind me-I was living in Lansdale PA at the time-never saw a flake-forecast was for a foot or more with blizzard conditions-models were 75-100 miles too far west

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Hard to analog much from the 80's as we're light years away from that background state. Looking back at OCT 1988 that was the 7th coldest OCT on record for the NE region

Yeah, 1988 was the last time NYC dropped below 32° in October. It was also the most recent time POU and MPO dropped under 20° in October.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1936	28	0
2	1976	29	0
-	1925	29	0
-	1887	29	0
-	1879	29	0
3	1940	30	0
-	1869	30	0
4	1988	31	0
-	1975	31	0
-	1974	31	0
-	1969	31	0
-	1871	31	0

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1988	18	0
-	1974	18	0
-	1952	18	0
-	1936	18	0
2	1987	19	0
-	1985	19	0
-	1976	19	0
-	1972	19	0
-	1950	19	0

 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917	12	0
2	1936	13	0
-	1907	13	0
3	1969	15	0
-	1939	15	0
-	1904	15	0
4	1988	16	1
-	1972	16	0
-	1933	16	0
-	1928	16	0
-	1916	16	0
-	1905	16	0

 

 

[Allsnow]

Foliage really starting to pop now around my area. With the recent cool nights and warm days it has helped the process. It’s been a wet summer so the colors are popping this year.

[BucksCO_PA]

41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Dont remind me-I was living in Lansdale PA at the time-never saw a flake-forecast was for a foot or more with blizzard conditions-models were 75-100 miles too far west

yep, had sun filtering thru clouds all day while the shore was getting rocked

& to punish us even further just 10 days later we were under a warning for 6-10" however the storm crapped out after 2-3", whole complexion of that winter would have changed if we'd hit on those 2 setups

as for today, 0.04" in my bucket this morning, saw a healthy 0.41" report from Sea Girt on the CNJ coast

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, BucksCO_PA said:

yep, had sun filtering thru clouds all day while the shore was getting rocked

& to punish us even further just 10 days later we were under a warning for 6-10" however the storm crapped out after 2-3", whole complexion of that winter would have changed if we'd hit on those 2 setups

as for today, 0.04" in my bucket this morning, saw a healthy 0.41" report from Sea Girt on the CNJ coast

And the following December things weren't much better despite the record cold

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

And the following December things weren't much better despite the record cold

The 1980s was the only decade that NYC didn’t go over 30” in a single season.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Max snowfall season in NYC 

2010s....61.9

2000s....49.3

1990s....75.6

1980s....27.2

1970s....50.7

1960s....54.7

1950s....44.7

1940s....63.9

1930s....52.0

1920s....60.4

1910s....50.7

1900s....53.2

1890s....55.9

1880s....44.6

1870s....60.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uncle W]

the 1880's and 1980's only had one storm 10" or more...The blizzard of 1888 is the only big one that decade...

snowfalls 10" or greater......
Year....date....amount"...
1872...12/26.......18.0"

1874...12/20.......10.0"
1875...4/13.........10.0"
1876...2/3-4........11.0"
1877...1/1-2........13.0"
1879...1/15-16....13.0"

1888...3/12-14....21.0"

1896...3/2...........10.0"
1896...3/15-16....12.0"
1897...1/27-28....10.0"
1898...11/26-27..10.0"
1899...2/12-14....16.0"

1902...2/17..........10.0"
1905...1/24-25.....11.0"
1907...2/4-5.........11.0"
1908...1/23-24.....10.0"

1910...1/14-15.....10.0"
1912...12/24........11.4"
1914...3/1-2.........14.5"
1915...4/3-4.........10.2"
1916...12/15........12.7"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"
1921...2/20..........12.5"
1925...1/2............11.5"
1926...2/3-4.........10.4"
1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1933...2/11..........10.0"
1933...12/26........11.2"
1935...1/23-24.....13.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"...
1947...2/20-21.....10.7"
1947...12/26-27...26.4"
1948...12/19-20...16.0"

1956...3/18-19.....11.6"
1958...3/19-20.....11.8"...
1959...12/21-22...13.7"

1960...3/3-4.........14.5"
1960...12/11-12...15.2"
1961...2/3-4.........17.4"
1964...1/12-13.....12.5"
1967...2/7............12.5"
1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"...
1978...2/6-7.........17.7"
1979...2/19..........12.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"...
1994...2/11..........12.8"
1995...2/4............10.8"...
1996...1/7-8.........20.2"
1996...2/16-17.....10.7"

2000...12/30........12.0"
2003...2/16-17.....19.8"
2003...12/5-6.......14.0"
2004...1/28..........10.4"
2005...1/22-23.....13.8"
2006...2/11-12.....26.9"
2009...12/19-20...10.9"

2010...2/9-10.......10.0"
2010...2/25-26.....20.9"...
2010...12/26-27...20.0"
2011...1/25-26.....19.0"
2013...2/8-9.........11.4"

2014...1/21..........11.5"

2014...2/13-14.....12.5"...

2016...1/22-23.....27.5"* biggest of all time...

 

[Allsnow]

Updated forecast for MSP is 5-7. Would be closer to their biggest October snowfall of all time. 

[Oliviajames]

47 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the 1880's and 1980's only had one storm 10" or more...The blizzard of 1888 is the only big one that decade...

snowfalls 10" or greater......
Year....date....amount"...
1872...12/26.......18.0"

1874...12/20.......10.0"
1875...4/13.........10.0"
1876...2/3-4........11.0"
1877...1/1-2........13.0"
1879...1/15-16....13.0"

1888...3/12-14....21.0"

1896...3/2...........10.0"
1896...3/15-16....12.0"
1897...1/27-28....10.0"
1898...11/26-27..10.0"
1899...2/12-14....16.0"

1902...2/17..........10.0"
1905...1/24-25.....11.0"
1907...2/4-5.........11.0"
1908...1/23-24.....10.0"

1910...1/14-15.....10.0"
1912...12/24........11.4"
1914...3/1-2.........14.5"
1915...4/3-4.........10.2"
1916...12/15........12.7"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"
1921...2/20..........12.5"
1925...1/2............11.5"
1926...2/3-4.........10.4"
1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1933...2/11..........10.0"
1933...12/26........11.2"
1935...1/23-24.....13.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"...
1947...2/20-21.....10.7"
1947...12/26-27...26.4"
1948...12/19-20...16.0"

1956...3/18-19.....11.6"
1958...3/19-20.....11.8"...
1959...12/21-22...13.7"

1960...3/3-4.........14.5"
1960...12/11-12...15.2"
1961...2/3-4.........17.4"
1964...1/12-13.....12.5"
1967...2/7............12.5"
1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"...
1978...2/6-7.........17.7"
1979...2/19..........12.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"...
1994...2/11..........12.8"
1995...2/4............10.8"...
1996...1/7-8.........20.2"
1996...2/16-17.....10.7"

2000...12/30........12.0"
2003...2/16-17.....19.8"
2003...12/5-6.......14.0"
2004...1/28..........10.4"
2005...1/22-23.....13.8"
2006...2/11-12.....26.9"
2009...12/19-20...10.9"

2010...2/9-10.......10.0"
2010...2/25-26.....20.9"...
2010...12/26-27...20.0"
2011...1/25-26.....19.0"
2013...2/8-9.........11.4"

2014...1/21..........11.5"

2014...2/13-14.....12.5"...

2016...1/22-23.....27.5"* biggest of all time...

 

Uncle would you happen to have this for Reading Pa or if not reading Philly?  I would love this info

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 1980s was the only decade that NYC didn’t go over 30” in a single season.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Max snowfall season in NYC 

2010s....61.9

2000s....49.3

1990s....75.6

1980s....27.2

1970s....50.7

1960s....54.7

1950s....44.7

1940s....63.9

1930s....52.0

1920s....60.4

1910s....50.7

1900s....53.2

1890s....55.9

1880s....44.6

1870s....60.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was a little too young in the mid-80s to remember, but there must have been some pretty big gradient systems in 86-87?  Rutgers had 47.4" that winter and NYC only 23.1.  Rutgers also had 30"+ 1981/82, 82/83 and 83/84.  I guess living right near RU as a kid, my perception of 80s winters isn't that terrible.  

[Oliviajames]

10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I was a little too young in the mid-80s to remember, but there must have been some pretty big gradient systems in 86-87?  Rutgers had 47.4" that winter and NYC only 23.1.  Rutgers also had 30"+ 1981/82, 82/83 and 83/84.  I guess living right near RU as a kid, my perception of 80s winters isn't that terrible.  

80's were terrible for NW of Philly guys.  Boring other than 83 which I was 5 years old.  I do remember it .  Funny how snow lovers loved snow even at a very young age

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I was a little too young in the mid-80s to remember, but there must have been some pretty big gradient systems in 86-87?  Rutgers had 47.4" that winter and NYC only 23.1.  Rutgers also had 30"+ 1981/82, 82/83 and 83/84.  I guess living right near RU as a kid, my perception of 80s winters isn't that terrible.  

Yeah, it was a sharp El Niño snowfall gradient favoring Central NJ.
 

86-87

BDR...22.1

ISP.....22.5

LGA....23.2

JFK....23.1

NYC...23.1

EWR...32.6

TTN...37.1

[TriPol]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning,  Looks like some drizzle and showers have occurred NYC area early today.  Suspect more coming tomorrow morning,  and am not seeing a lot of sun or non marine influenced flow for our NYC area the next 2 or 3 days.  Maybe Saturday for a real warm day?  Nights will be very mild for sure.  A dirty pattern I think.  

Epsilon doing it's thing per NHC and still 3-5 members of the GEFS trying to get something going near FL around the 25th-26th-the previous NHC 10% hold there is realistic. 

In the meantime...late 25th-27th... seems like we're going to be in quasi stationary baroclinic zone with a tropical connection via PWAT.  Some generous precipitation anticipated ne USA... not impossible to see 1-3" in this period.  For now we'll go with WPC but in a positive tilt situation...whereever the frontal boundary lays out,  thats going to be the focus of decent qpf. 

1-3" of what? Rain? Snow?

[Brian5671]

Skies starting to brighten here.  65 degrees but humid

[MJO812]

Snow setup on the gfs and cmc for far interior areas with a nice big high to the north

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snow setup on the gfs and cmc for far interior areas with a nice big high to the north

And only 258 hours away! 

[Brian5671]

Should be in Banter.   Day 10 stuff and the GFS has a cold bias in the LR

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Should be in Banter.   Day 10 stuff and the GFS has a cold bias in the LR

Cmc is quite similiar but banter.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And only 258 hours away! 

I mean we are getting close to the season so its possible. 

[Ericjcrash]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is quite similiar but banter.

It's a Henry Margusity special.

[forkyfork]

6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Confirmed. I have about 750 feet visibility.

should be widespread tonight with the higher dewpoints 

[KEITH L.I]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I mean we are getting close to the season so its possible. 

We don't want snow in October or November.Usually those winters are mild and snowless.Plus you don't want to waste a great pattern when it really can't snow yet on the coast.

[forkyfork]

epsilon might phase and cause a wave breaking event with a ripple effect down the road

[MJO812]

Lucky

[BucksCO_PA]

33 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

We don't want snow in October or November.Usually those winters are mild and snowless.Plus you don't want to waste a great pattern when it really can't snow yet on the coast.

as far as NOV snow, if that corresponds to remainder of the 1977-78, 1978-79, 1995-96 & 2013-2014 seasons than count me in

Looking at the Philly snowfall period of record there have been 40 seasons in which measurable snow was recorded in OCT and/or NOV & the subsequent snowfall average for the rest of the season was 23.2". On the flip side the 95 seasons without any OCT / NOV measurable snow average 21.3"for the rest of the season.

The long term POR average DEC-APR snowfall at Philadelphia is 21.8".

 

[forkyfork]