Brian5671 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 some frost on roof tops here this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 33 currently. Not sure about the overnight low. Might have touched it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 Morning low of 36.1 in Muttontown & 36.7 in Syosset. Had frost on cars & rooftops in Syosset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Morning thoughts... A mostly sunny day with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s is in store. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 65° A stretch of warmer than normal temperatures will return starting tomorrow. One or more days during the work week could see much above normal readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Briefly touched 39.4, first 30’s, no frost thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 43 once again for the low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 45 here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 12:03 PM, uofmiami said: Morning low of 36.1 in Muttontown & 36.7 in Syosset. Had frost on cars & rooftops in Syosset. Expand Whoa, I beat muttontown. 35.1 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 11:41 AM, bluewave said: First +10 or greater departures of the month coming up this week. The previous highest daily temperature departure at Newark so far this month was +8 back in the 7th. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/18/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25 CLIMO X/N 63| 51 68| 57 76| 61 75| 62 75| 59 68| 55 72| 52 59 44 62 Expand Really over blowing a few days in the low 70s this week. Going to be a long winter 41F Wading River 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 30 will do it for the low here, 28 a couple miles up the road at KMGJ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 12:45 PM, psv88 said: Whoa, I beat muttontown. 35.1 here Expand I’m sure the pool at 82 nearby doesn’t help, but can’t win all the radiation cooling days, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Looks nice and warm for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Have posted on the tropical page regarding what should be a big ocean storm near Bermuda. Impact here probably only swells of 5-6 feet s LI NJ coast around the 23rd-24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Guessing it will be pretty warm ahead... we'll have to watch low lvl moisture that could lower potential 'max' temps along the coasts as overall, it looks like high pressure to our north with short attempts at w-sw surface flow. Most of the time it seems some sort of onshore flow? Not sure this is an entirely clean week ahead... I could see some drizzle, even a shower on one or two days of the next 7 (excluding today). Also, slight cirrus and very thin smoke aloft this morning. A somewhat thicker plume from the CO fire would possibly be noticed tomorrow with the only drawback being the likelihood of multiple layers of clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Went down to 41.9 in Lindenhurst this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 38.3 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 12:46 PM, jfklganyc said: Really over blowing a few days in the low 70s this week. Going to be a long winter 41F Wading River Expand These warm patterns tend to overperform I bet we see some temps higher than guidance. Had it not rained 3-4 inches this week I would have taken a bet on a day close to 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 9:52 AM, Allsnow said: 36 Expand 36 was the low here too. As expected, everything in the vegetable garden is just fine. And now no frost/freeze in sight for a long time as we go into a very warm pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 First 30s of season at places like ISP this morning is close to the average since 2010. A little over a week later than during the 2000’s. First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 04-11 (2019) 10-10 (2010) 149 Mean 04-28 10-19 172 Maximum 05-13 (2010) 11-01 (2017) 190 2019 04-11 (2019) 36 10-19 (2019) 38 190 2018 04-24 (2018) 36 10-18 (2018) 35 176 2017 05-04 (2017) 39 11-01 (2017) 36 180 2016 04-17 (2016) 37 10-11 (2016) 39 176 2015 05-02 (2015) 39 10-18 (2015) 33 168 2014 04-25 (2014) 38 10-20 (2014) 35 177 2013 05-05 (2013) 39 10-21 (2013) 39 168 2012 04-30 (2012) 36 10-13 (2012) 32 165 2011 05-06 (2011) 38 10-28 (2011) 37 174 2010 05-13 (2010) 38 10-10 (2010) 37 149 First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 04-17 (2009) 10-02 (2009) 137 Mean 05-09 10-10 153 Maximum 05-22 (2002) 10-24 (2005) 167 2009 04-17 (2009) 32 10-02 (2009) 38 167 2008 05-20 (2008) 39 10-18 (2008) 39 150 2007 05-08 (2007) 39 10-13 (2007) 39 157 2006 04-29 (2006) 37 10-13 (2006) 38 166 2005 05-13 (2005) 37 10-24 (2005) 36 163 2004 05-05 (2004) 38 10-05 (2004) 39 152 2003 05-18 (2003) 38 10-03 (2003) 34 137 2002 05-22 (2002) 37 10-14 (2002) 39 144 2001 05-08 (2001) 37 10-07 (2001) 39 151 2000 05-16 (2000) 39 10-08 (2000) 39 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 2:54 PM, winterwx21 said: 36 was the low here too. As expected, everything in the vegetable garden is just fine. And now no frost/freeze in sight for a long time as we go into a very warm pattern. Expand Yep, looks like a nice stretch of winter weather for the upper Midwest. Minnesota should have a big winter again this year. I have no use for a cold pattern for us. It’s just a waste, save it for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 10:10 AM, tim said: ...KFOK @ 32*..got down to 31* @ 4am.. i'm @ 36.3. Expand FOX went from 34 at 8am to 53 at 9am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 12:24 PM, Cfa said: Briefly touched 39.4, first 30’s, no frost thankfully. Expand On 10/18/2020 at 12:03 PM, uofmiami said: Morning low of 36.1 in Muttontown & 36.7 in Syosset. Had frost on cars & rooftops in Syosset. Expand On 10/18/2020 at 12:45 PM, psv88 said: Whoa, I beat muttontown. 35.1 here Expand 41 here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 3:31 PM, Allsnow said: Yep, looks like a nice stretch of winter weather for the upper Midwest. Minnesota should have a big winter again this year. I have no use for a cold pattern for us. It’s just a waste, save it for December Expand Completely agree. Hopefully the warm pattern will last a long time this Fall to keep the growing season going and for outdoor activities like hiking, leaf raking and outdoor dining. Then hopefully it will flip to a colder pattern to get some snow in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 3:39 PM, winterwx21 said: Completely agree. Hopefully the warm pattern will last a long time this Fall to keep the growing season going and for outdoor activities like hiking, leaf raking and outdoor dining. Then hopefully it will flip to a colder pattern to get some snow in December. Expand Exactly. Plus my expectations are so low for this winter that any snowfall would make me happy. We have had really cold patterns/snowfall The last few November’s and it really has meant nothing for the coming winter. I have no scientific proof that it means anything but I would prefer a warm fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 the three la nina years from 1973-75 featured some late fall warmth...it hit 77 on 11/15/73...81 on 11/1/74 and 78 on 11/4/75...in 1950 (another la nina year) it was 84 on the 1st and 83 on the 2nd...with the ao and nao going positive in the long run I can see temps hitting 75-80 again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 12:46 PM, jfklganyc said: Really over blowing a few days in the low 70s this week. Going to be a long winter 41F Wading River Expand Can you share the method behind prediction? I ask because I am always curious how people get to a specific range several months out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 4:20 PM, uncle W said: the three la nina years from 1973-75 featured some late fall warmth...it hit 77 on 11/15/73...81 on 11/1/74 and 78 on 11/4/75...in 1950 (another la nina year) it was 84 on the 1st and 83 on the 2nd...with the ao and nao going positive in the long run I can see temps hitting 75-80 again... Expand I think 75 to 80 is a good possibility for this week. Maybe not quite to 80, but I think there's a good chance my area will hit 77 or 78 wednesday or thursday this week. Great October weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Pretty late in the season for a 588 DM ridge over our area this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 6:51 PM, bluewave said: Pretty late in the season for a 588 DM ridge over our area this week. Expand I mentioned days ago of a possible record high on the 22nd. Unfortunately it was 88* in 1979 on that date after a winter like bout that saw snow flurries/wet snow all day back on Oct. 10, 1979. The GFS has 8 70-Degree Days incoming [in the next 11 days] and one of those is 80* on the 22nd. The cold air is getting worn out just reaching the EC----now another day later on the 29th. As a quick aside: Tampa is way in line for its 30th. consecutive month w/o going BN, at +3.9 so far. Also, I think in the last 11 years there will still be just one BN month out of 22 (Sept./Oct)(NYC) when this month ends around here. Boy how we need next year's 30 Year Normal update in order to get our perspective straight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 7:10 PM, CIK62 said: I mentioned days ago of a possible record high on the 22nd. Unfortunately it was 88* in 1979 on that date after a winter like bout that saw snow flurries/wet snow all day back on Oct. 10, 1979. The GFS has 8 70-Degree Days incoming [in the next 11 days] and one of those is 80* on the 22nd. The cold air is getting worn out just reaching the EC----now another day later on the 29th. Expand The models have plenty of clouds and an S To SE flow this week. So that’s why they hold the highs in the 70s instead of 80s. Still a +10 or higher departure on the warmest days. Maybe somebody in Central Jersey can make a run on 80° with more sun and SSW flow than forecast. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/18/2020 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25|MON CLIMO N/X 51 67| 56 72| 61 73| 63 78| 63 75| 60 72| 54 66| 48 44 62 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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