LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 12:32 AM, donsutherland1 said: Through 8 pm: Islip: 0.25” JFK: 1.26” LGA: 1.31” NYC: 1.26” Newark: 0.92” Expand Thanks! Final totals around 1.5, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 10:17 AM, wdrag said: Not considering a topic for the 25th-27th for at least the next 2-5 days, till the tropics get sorted out, and the eastern USA currently modeled positive tilt trough sharpens, which it may not. We in the NYC forum appear to be in a baroclinic zone that last week of October. Just need to wait out all the model variations for a few days til a more likely model-derived consensus idea of future reality becomes apparent. Expand Thanks for the 2005 list, Walt! I didn't remember the unnamed storm...that year was so wild that we had tropical activity right to the end of December! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 4:51 AM, Rjay said: 49 and rain. Meh Expand Better than 33 and rain though ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 3:36 AM, jm1220 said: Rain is blossoming pretty well currently, should be wet from this area on east for the next few hours at least. This system overall is affecting everyone just about equally-the back edge of this seems to be about exactly where the first batch today ended. Expand this does seem like one of those winter events.....the back end always does better over Suffolk county in those lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:41 AM, Allsnow said: Huh? Your area and LI should do well tonight. Radar looks solid for a rainy night Expand yeah it must have built back in-we ended with about 1.20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 43 for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Overnight low actually made it down to 43 here. I should do at least a few degrees colder tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 36 for the low here today, so far...we’ll see if we can beat that this evening before midnight. .49 event total up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Some pretty good training of cells last night from just west of JFK up into SW CT. Station Number: NY-QN-33 Station Name: Howard Beach 0.4 NNW Observation Date 10/17/2020 7:00 AM Submitted 10/17/2020 7:18 AM Total Precip Amount 2.48 in. Station Number: NY-NS-27 Station Name: Port Washington 0.8 N Observation Date 10/17/2020 7:14 AM Submitted 10/17/2020 7:18 AM Total Precip Amount 2.39 in. Station Number: CT-FR-25 Station Name: Norwalk 2.9 NNW Observation Date 10/17/2020 7:00 AM Submitted 10/17/2020 7:04 AM Total Precip Amount 2.27 in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Morning thoughts... Following yesterday’s rain, a fair but cool weekend is in store. Temperatures will struggle just to reach 60° in many parts of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 60° Warmer temperatures should return early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 11:17 AM, LibertyBell said: Thanks! Final totals around 1.5, Don? Expand Totals through 9 am: Boston: 1.93”; Islip: 0.92”; JFK: 1.66”; LGA: 1.44”; NYC: 1.37”; Newark: 0.98”’; Providence: 1.92” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Only a brief cool down before temperatures warm back up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:25 PM, bluewave said: Only a brief cool down before temperatures warm back up again. Expand We're going to roast this winter again. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:41 PM, SnoSki14 said: We're going to roast this winter again. Expand From looking at a map for late October ? Its possible but come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:41 PM, SnoSki14 said: We're going to roast this winter again. Expand Another warmer than average winter would not be a surprise. The last 5 winters in NYC have been the warmest 5 year stretch on record. The 1981-2010 average in NYC was 35.1°. The last 5 years that jumped to 38.4°. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 40.5 35.2 39.5 38.4 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Bluewave, is this La Nina favored to be weak or strong? Craig Allen yesterday mentioned that we are looking at a strong LaNina. He disagreed with NOAA's outlook for this upcoming winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:56 PM, bluewave said: Another warmer than average winter would not be a surprise. The last 5 winters in NYC have been the warmest 5 year stretch on record. The 1981-2010 average in NYC was 35.1°. The last 5 years that jumped to 38.4°. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 40.5 35.2 39.5 38.4 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 Expand I think we need a category above the relatively tame "warmer than average" If a season is +3 or more compared to the 30 year average it should be called a historic torch. Also I wouldn't use a 30 year average as that moves, we should use the whole period (or at least 1950 onwards) to compare it against what our climate "used to be." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:48 PM, MJO812 said: From looking at a map for late October ? Its possible but come on. Expand Probably more snow than last winter but still way below normal. I predict an average winter temp around 38.5 with less than 20 inches of total snowfall, probably more like between 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 I dont get why all these people in Minnesota are so excited about snow....it's supposed to snow there. Dont have a coronary because you got 5 inches of snow, that's ho-hum and you should expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 2:34 PM, LibertyBell said: I dont get why all these people in Minnesota are so excited about snow....it's supposed to snow there. Dont have a coronary because you got 5 inches of snow, that's ho-hum and you should expect it. Expand My guess, LB, is that their practicing reactions to what will be normal for them by the tricentennial. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 2:33 PM, LibertyBell said: Probably more snow than last winter but still way below normal. I predict an average winter temp around 38.5 with less than 20 inches of total snowfall, probably more like between 10-15. Expand Can you share the method behind prediction? I ask because I am always curious how people get to a specific range several months out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 2:09 PM, LoboLeader1 said: Bluewave, is this La Nina favored to be weak or strong? Craig Allen yesterday mentioned that we are looking at a strong LaNina. He disagreed with NOAA's outlook for this upcoming winter. Expand With what aspect did he disagree? Strength of the La Niña? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 3:04 PM, jfklganyc said: Can you share the method behind prediction? I ask because I am always curious how people get to a specific range several months out Expand from reading a list of possible analogs in the main forum's enso state thread, 2007-08 was a big analog being used. On the positive side, they also mentioned an increasing possibility of an el nino after this winter, and this might be the last of the la nina winters for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1973-74 had the strongest la nina for any winter...with the help of some periodic blocking it was a decent winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 4:33 PM, uncle W said: 1973-74 had the strongest la nina for any winter...with the help of some periodic blocking it was a decent winter... Expand better than 1972-73 at any rate lol- la ninas after el ninos seem to be pretty good....whats the story on el ninos that follow la ninas, are they also good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:12 PM, donsutherland1 said: Totals through 9 am: Boston: 1.93”; Islip: 0.92”; JFK: 1.66”; LGA: 1.44”; NYC: 1.37”; Newark: 0.98”’; Providence: 1.92” Expand 1.60 inches of rain here. Low temperature last night 42° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:48 PM, MJO812 said: From looking at a map for late October ? Its possible but come on. Expand SST temps are way above normal. That will keep us warm through December most likely. Then we'll have to see what the AO, NAO MJO etc want to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 4:36 PM, LibertyBell said: better than 1972-73 at any rate lol- la ninas after el ninos seem to be pretty good....whats the story on el ninos that follow la ninas, are they also good? Expand 2009-10 was great...2006-07 wasn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 4:45 PM, uncle W said: 2009-10 was great...2006-07 wasn't... Expand 2 out of 3 aint bad..... 1995-96 and 2010-11 vs 2007-08 wait I thought you meant la ninas after el ninos lol those seem to be somewhat better than el ninos after la ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 4:45 PM, Brian5671 said: SST temps are way above normal. That will keep us warm through December most likely. Then we'll have to see what the AO, NAO MJO etc want to do. Expand SST temp above normal is good for bombing storms, if we get that then those storms can drag down colder air as they bomb out. I've seen plenty of years with cold SST that turned into dud winters (a la 89-90) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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