bluewave Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, wdrag said: Looking ahead here: Potential wind/rain event Fri or Sat?, then next Tue or Wed (20-21), and finally a tropical system of interest near FL around the 24th-27th. Yeah, extremely amplified pattern coming up. Looks like temperatures rebound back into the 70s Thursday. Then a strong storm that you mentioned with wind and rain. Models have a 590 dm+ ridge around Newfoundland which is close to the record for this time of year near 5 SD. That ridge builds westward over the Northeast day 6-10 for more milder than normal temperatures. Then we’ll have to watch for potential tropical development in the SW Caribbean later in the month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, extremely amplified pattern coming up. Looks like temperatures rebound back into the 70s Thursday. Then a strong storm that you mentioned with wind and rain. Models have a 590 dm+ ridge around Newfoundland which is close to the record for this time of year near 5 SD. That ridge builds westward over the Northeast day 6-10 for more milder than normal temperatures. Then we’ll have to watch for potential tropical development in the SW Caribbean later in the month. Very well ---- advance analyzed. This helps us all..Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Wantage now at 0.68" Still increasing. Minor but modeling was pretty good... overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Morning thoughts... The remnants of Hurricane Delta will slowly move away from the region today. Clouds could break during the late afternoon or early evening, especially from near New York City and westward. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Much of the rest of the week could feature warmer than normal temperatures. A system could bring some rain and a shot of colder air into the region toward the end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Hey folks, been busy awhile but check in from time to time. Looks like everyone is still ok, which is nice to see in these times. Can't help but notice how cold it is out this October, I'm often still running the AC but this year will need the heat early. I don't think this means much as far as the upcoming winter, but for once I am hoping for a milder and less snowy winter than normal, as I think we are going to have enough to deal with in the upcoming months; I'm not looking forward to lots of snow making things worse. Just a thought, stay safe all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Hey folks, been busy awhile but check in from time to time. Looks like everyone is still ok, which is nice to see in these times. Can't help but notice how cold it is out this October, I'm often still running the AC but this year will need the heat early. I don't think this means much as far as the upcoming winter, but for once I am hoping for a milder and less snowy winter than normal, as I think we are going to have enough to deal with in the upcoming months; I'm not looking forward to lots of snow making things worse. Just a thought, stay safe all. I hope all is well @weatherpruf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 47 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Hey folks, been busy awhile but check in from time to time. Looks like everyone is still ok, which is nice to see in these times. Can't help but notice how cold it is out this October, I'm often still running the AC but this year will need the heat early. I don't think this means much as far as the upcoming winter, but for once I am hoping for a milder and less snowy winter than normal, as I think we are going to have enough to deal with in the upcoming months; I'm not looking forward to lots of snow making things worse. Just a thought, stay safe all. from a pandemic perspective an 01-02 style winter would work. From a weenie perspective we want 95-96 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Picked up 0.15" of rain for the day. Storm total 0.98" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and warmer as the clouds associated with the remnants of Delta move out of the area. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a brief period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The potential exists for a fairly sharp shot of cold just after mid-month. However, milder conditions will return shortly afterward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +10.31. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.137. On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.911 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.780. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 lol, 0Z GFS has the first major snowstorm of the season for the northeast from a hurricane going extratropical in 2 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 59degs. Making it 54degs., or about -3.0. FLASH: GFS (0Z) has 3.3" SNOW around the 26th-27th! But before that, another inch or two of rain on Fri-Sat. Today 66 to 69, Tomorrow 71 to 76---in and around NYC, briefly 67 on Friday. 53*(81%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 60*(68%RH) by 12:30pm. 63*(62%RH) by 2pm. 68*(56%RH) by 4pm. 69* at 5pm. 62* by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 7 hours ago, SI Mailman said: lol, 0Z GFS has the first major snowstorm of the season for the northeast from a hurricane going extratropical in 2 weeks. NO! No snow in October! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 9 am, the sky was nearly cloud-free from North Carolina into New Hampshire and Vermont. Today will feature brilliant sunshine and warm temperatures. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s with some areas reaching or exceeding 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Much of the rest of the week could feature warmer than normal temperatures. A system could bring some rain and a shot of colder air into the region toward the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 On 10/13/2020 at 6:51 AM, wdrag said: Looking ahead here: Potential wind/rain event Fri or Sat?, then next Tue or Wed (20-21), and finally a tropical system of interest near FL around the 24th-27th. What's this talk of a TC coming up the east coast towards the end of the month? I started hearing talk of it today- the GFS shows it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: The coast doesn’t have to worry about any measurable snow this October. Looks like the old GFS cold bias at work. The long range EPS and CMC have a strong WAR pattern next few weeks. I'd be more worried about a TC coming up the coast than any possible snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 On 10/13/2020 at 8:54 AM, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... The remnants of Hurricane Delta will slowly move away from the region today. Clouds could break during the late afternoon or early evening, especially from near New York City and westward. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Much of the rest of the week could feature warmer than normal temperatures. A system could bring some rain and a shot of colder air into the region toward the end of the week. Don, do you have any rainfall totals across our area and highest wind speeds? NYC, JFK, LGA, ISP, EWR, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The coast doesn’t have to worry about any measurable snow this October. Looks like the old GFS cold bias at work. The long range EPS and CMC have a strong WAR pattern next few weeks. The CFS shows snow to the coast also. It is usually a curse for the winter so hopefully it doesn't happen. The models keep showing a tropical system either coming up the coast or just offshore. Have to keep an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The CFS shows snow to the coast also. It is usually a curse for the winter so hopefully it doesn't happen. The models keep showing a tropical system either coming up the coast or just offshore. Have to keep an eye. what day are they showing this TC reaching us? and the CFS is showing snow coming from this TC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: it’s just the GFS day 15 cold bias at work. Remember the big snowstorm it was forecasting near Halloween last year? NYC actually wound up with 70° readings. Yep I remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I am not sure why the NCEP makes the OP GFS available to the public past 10 days The other modeling centers just have a control and ensemble mean. The new FV3 upgrade loves virtual week 2 snowfall. Just look at all the snow we would have had last year with the upgrade if it was correct. Even past Day 5 is a crapshoot for OP models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Even past Day 5 is a crapshoot for OP models It makes more sense to rely on ensemble means beyond day 5 than OP runs. With the rise of social media, the modeling centers need to find a way to limit what type OP data beyond 120 hrs they make freely available. Otherwise, we will just keep getting these incorrect 30 inch snowstorm rumors. https://www.nj.com/weather-guy/2014/02/the_nj_blizzard_that_wasnt_the_anatomy_of_a_social_media_misfire.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Looking like high temps upper 60s to around 70 all next week. Very mild pattern except for a brief cool shot at the end of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don, do you have any rainfall totals across our area and highest wind speeds? NYC, JFK, LGA, ISP, EWR, etc.? Here's the PNS (no wind data was available): 294 NOUS41 KOKX 141246 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-150046- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 846 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 72 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/nyc ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS RAINFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... 1 W Shelton 1.55 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 W Monroe 1.52 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Westport 1.38 818 AM 10/14 CWOP Shelton 1.33 145 AM 10/14 CWOP Monroe 1.26 151 PM 10/13 CWOP 2 ENE Darien 1.18 750 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 ENE Trumbull 1.14 815 AM 10/14 AWS 1 S Trumbull 1.06 515 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Norwalk 1.04 753 PM 10/13 CWOP 5 SE Newtown 1.00 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS ...Middlesex County... 1 N Higganum 1.93 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NE Higganum 1.77 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Durham 1.76 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 3 WNW Chester Center 1.44 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 N East Hampton 1.43 500 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Durham 1.28 757 PM 10/13 CWOP 4 N Clinton 1.28 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 W Durham 1.19 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 W Durham 1.07 815 AM 10/14 AWS ...New Haven County... 2 ENE Prospect 3.11 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SW Prospect 2.63 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 WNW Wallingford Ce 2.12 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 W Cheshire 2.05 738 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Meriden Airport 1.81 741 PM 10/13 ASOS 1 SW Northford 1.70 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Cheshire 1.62 755 PM 10/13 CWOP 2 NE Seymour 1.60 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Waterbury Airport 1.57 651 PM 10/13 AWOS 1 SSW Waterbury 1.52 745 PM 10/13 AWS Oxford 1.51 730 PM 10/13 CWOP 1 N Wallingford Cent 1.51 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 3 NNW New Haven 1.48 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Hamden 1.38 754 PM 10/13 CWOP Wallingford 1.36 715 PM 10/13 CWOP Bethany 1.29 817 AM 10/14 CWOP New Haven 1.24 800 PM 10/13 AWS 1 WSW New Haven 1.23 800 PM 10/13 AWS Branford 1.21 735 PM 10/13 CWOP 1 W West Haven 1.06 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS New Haven 1.04 815 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 WNW Waterbury 1.00 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS ...New London County... 5 SE Norwich 1.35 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 3 NW Mystic 1.31 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 3 NNE Norwich 1.23 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 W Mystic 1.19 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SW East Lyme 1.14 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 SE Norwich 1.12 700 AM 10/14 Co-Op Observer 1 NNW New London 1.11 730 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Lyme 1.06 817 AM 10/14 CWOP New London 1.05 755 PM 10/13 AWS 2 SSE Pawcatuck 1.03 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 SE Norwich 1.02 150 AM 10/14 AWS 3 SSW Central Waterf 1.01 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... Teterboro Airport 1.82 151 PM 10/13 ASOS New Milford 1.81 820 AM 10/14 AWS Little Ferry 1.70 825 AM 10/14 AWS WNW Bergenfield 1.65 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS WNW Palisades Park 1.56 900 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 NE Hackensack 1.56 825 AM 10/14 AWS Lodi 1.48 730 AM 10/14 IFLOWS 1 SSE Oakland 1.46 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Leonia 1.46 825 AM 10/14 AWS 1 ESE Oakland 1.43 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Tenafly 1.37 811 AM 10/14 CWOP Tenafly 1.37 819 AM 10/14 URBANET 1 SE Fair Lawn 1.36 644 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Fair Lawn 1.28 825 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 NE Paramus 1.24 824 AM 10/14 AWS Hasbrouck Heights 1.22 824 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 W Tenafly 1.21 730 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Park Ridge 1.05 800 AM 10/14 IFLOWS 1 SSE Franklin Lakes 1.04 1200 PM 10/13 IFLOWS 1 W Ramsey 1.03 825 AM 10/14 AWS ...Essex County... 1 W Orange 1.78 820 AM 10/14 URBANET Newark 1.69 800 PM 10/13 AWS Orange Reservoir 1.56 715 AM 10/14 IFLOWS 1 N Montclair 1.52 530 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NNE Montclair 1.44 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Maplewood 1.44 600 PM 10/13 IFLOWS Montclair 1.40 800 PM 10/13 AWS Bloomfield 1.34 819 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 SE Maplewood Twp 1.30 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Millburn 1.30 800 PM 10/13 AWS 1 NE West Caldwell T 1.15 900 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 2 W Millburn 1.08 715 AM 10/14 HADS 2 NNE Livingston Twp 1.08 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS ...Hudson County... Weehawken 1.31 825 AM 10/14 AWS Kearny 1.29 818 AM 10/14 CWOP Harrison 1.02 825 AM 10/14 AWS ...Passaic County... Passaic 1.76 816 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 WNW Little Falls T 1.39 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SSW Clifton 1.28 815 AM 10/14 AWS Ringwood 1.19 710 PM 10/13 RAWS 1 NE Clifton 1.11 825 AM 10/14 AWS 1 E West Paterson 1.04 700 AM 10/14 HADS ...Union County... 1 NNW Cranford Twp 1.99 355 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SE Westfield 1.55 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NE Westfield 1.48 645 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Roselle Park 1.20 755 PM 10/13 CWOP 2 NW Linden 1.07 750 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 ESE New Providence 1.06 730 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Newark Airport 1.05 151 PM 10/13 ASOS NEW YORK ...Bronx County... City Island 1.68 825 AM 10/14 AWS ...Kings County... 1 WSW Crown Heights 1.56 820 AM 10/14 AWS Sheepshead Bay 1.50 746 PM 10/13 CWOP 3 NW Brooklyn 1.33 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Brooklyn 1.14 810 AM 10/13 CWOP 2 SW Brooklyn 1.01 738 PM 10/12 CoCoRaHS ...Nassau County... Woodbury 1.81 822 AM 10/14 CWOP E Locust Valley 1.79 845 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 N Massapequa Park 1.78 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 ENE Lynbrook 1.63 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 ENE Hicksville 1.62 718 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NNE Wantagh 1.62 800 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS ESE Wantagh 1.59 800 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS East Rockaway 1.57 756 AM 10/13 CWOP Oyster Bay 1.56 816 AM 10/14 CWOP Matinecock 1.56 825 AM 10/14 AWS Muttontown 1.56 825 AM 10/14 CWOP Levittown 1.52 746 PM 10/13 CWOP Syosset 1.51 825 AM 10/13 Co-Op Observer Levittown 1.47 815 AM 10/14 AWS Bellmore 1.31 825 AM 10/14 AWS Syosset 1.29 815 AM 10/14 CWOP Valley Stream 1.21 806 AM 10/13 CWOP Glen Head 1.20 825 AM 10/14 AWS Massapequa Park 1.19 816 AM 10/14 CWOP Merrick 1.11 815 AM 10/14 CWOP Carle Place 1.09 810 AM 10/13 CWOP Wantagh 1.01 809 AM 10/13 CWOP Rockville Centre 1.01 810 AM 10/13 AWS ...New York County... Washington Heights 1.89 815 AM 10/14 AWS Greenwich Village 1.43 755 PM 10/13 AWS New York 1.38 825 AM 10/14 AWS Central Park 1.31 751 AM 10/14 ASOS Midtown Manhattan 1.01 820 AM 10/14 AWS ...Orange County... 1 N Port Jervis 1.07 700 AM 10/13 Co-Op Observer Usma 1.05 155 AM 10/14 RAWS ...Queens County... NNW Howard Beach 1.93 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 5 SW Queens 1.65 830 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS NYC/JFK Airport 1.24 151 PM 10/13 ASOS NYC/La Guardia 1.23 651 PM 10/13 ASOS Bellerose 1.23 801 AM 10/13 CWOP Jackson Heights 1.22 821 AM 10/14 CWOP 3 WSW Saddle Rock 1.21 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS ...Richmond County... 1 SE Staten Island 1.71 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Staten Island 1.30 746 PM 10/13 CWOP 5 SSE Staten Island 1.00 600 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS ...Suffolk County... 1 NE Remsenburg-Speo 2.21 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SE Patchogue 2.14 639 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Westhampton Airport 2.13 653 PM 10/13 ASOS 1 ESE Bay Shore 2.08 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS East Setauket 2.05 816 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 SW West Islip 2.04 730 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SSE Sayville 2.02 809 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NNE Islip Terrace 1.99 800 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Eastport 1.94 1145 PM 10/13 RAWS 1 N Center Moriches 1.91 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS ENE Copiague 1.86 800 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS SE Sayville 1.81 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 WNW Setauket-East 1.78 630 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SW Centerport 1.74 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Shirley Airport 1.72 756 PM 10/13 ASOS 1 W Islip Terrace 1.72 900 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 SSW Nesconset 1.71 811 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Lake Ronkonkoma 1.71 816 AM 10/14 CWOP Shinnecock Hills 1.69 800 PM 10/13 AWS Cutchogue 1.62 748 PM 10/13 CWOP Islip Airport 1.60 756 AM 10/14 ASOS 1 NNW Brightwaters 1.58 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS North Babylon 1.58 822 AM 10/14 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 1.54 817 AM 10/14 CWOP Selden 1.52 806 AM 10/14 CWOP Sayville 1.51 151 PM 10/13 CWOP Eastport 1.51 758 AM 10/14 CWOP East Northport 1.51 1226 AM 10/13 CWOP 1 NE Centereach 1.51 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Fort Salonga 1.50 746 PM 10/13 CWOP Centerport 1.49 700 AM 10/14 Co-Op Observer 2 SE Medford 1.49 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Southold 1.48 755 PM 10/13 CWOP 1 SSW Commack 1.45 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Orient 1.44 754 PM 10/13 CWOP 1 WNW Wading River 1.43 755 PM 10/13 AWS 2 NNW Patchogue 1.43 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS West Babylon 1.42 819 AM 10/14 CWOP Hampton Bays 1.42 746 PM 10/13 CWOP Selden 1.37 825 AM 10/14 AWS SSW Port Jefferson S 1.36 1130 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS N. Babylon 1.34 820 AM 10/14 CWOP Farmingville 1.32 817 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 S Setauket-East Se 1.32 733 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Orient 1.31 746 PM 10/13 CWOP Northport 1.31 820 AM 10/14 CWOP West Islip 1.29 824 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 SSE Bayport 1.25 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Fort Salonga 1.20 825 AM 10/14 AWS 1 SSW Setauket-East 1.18 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Miller Place 1.17 755 PM 10/13 CWOP Melville 1.14 824 AM 10/14 CWOP 2 NNE Northport 1.14 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Shelter Island 1.12 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Farmingdale Airport 1.11 753 AM 10/13 ASOS 1 NE Fishers Island 1.10 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Kings Park 1.07 817 AM 10/14 CWOP Montauk Highway 1.04 755 PM 10/13 AWS Stony Brook 1.04 804 AM 10/13 CWOP Greenlawn 1.04 823 AM 10/14 CWOP ...Westchester County... New Rochelle 2.01 815 AM 10/14 AWS Hastings-on-Hudson 1.17 825 AM 10/14 AWS Rye 1.05 824 AM 10/14 AWS && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: What's this talk of a TC coming up the east coast towards the end of the month? I started hearing talk of it today- the GFS shows it? CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us(Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether it comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle rings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? I will submit this for critique on the tropical forum and there could be some contrary expertise--- so this is my impression of expectations. My take for my own use: IF this applied and I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. 1107A/14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Models starting to shift east with the Friday night event. NAM has shifted the heaviest precip western edge from about Scranton to Newark and the GFS appears to be following suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Models starting to shift east with the Friday night event. NAM has shifted the heaviest precip western edge from about Scranton to Newark and the GFS appears to be following suit. it doesn't seem like there's going to be a whole lot of rain anywhere though (>1") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: it’s just the GFS day 15 cold bias at work. Remember the big snowstorm it was forecasting near Halloween last year? NYC actually wound up with 70° readings. why dont they fix this cold bias? Isn't this as simple as applying a positive (+) temperature correction to the data? Simply do a study to see what the magnitude of the cold bias is and adjust the model to account for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it doesn't seem like there's going to be a whole lot of rain anywhere though (>1") quick mover-6-9 hrs of rain and that's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: why dont they fix this cold bias? Isn't this as simple as applying a positive (+) temperature correction to the data? Simply do a study to see what the magnitude of the cold bias is and adjust the model to account for it? They think that the cold bias is a result of the GFDL microphysics. The whole explanation starts at page #40. I guess changing the microphysics takes time. What is the Cause of This Cold Bias? KEY POINTS: - Suites 1 and 2 (GFDL MP) have a cold bias that increases with lead time - The suites without GFDL microphysics do not show a cold bias increasing w time https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/NGGPS/EMC MEG Evaluation of GFSv15_Manikin_SIP Meeting_20190514.pdf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: They think that the cold bias is a result of the GFDL microphysics. The whole explanation starts at page #40. I guess changing the microphysics takes time. What is the Cause of This Cold Bias? KEY POINTS: - Suites 1 and 2 (GFDL MP) have a cold bias that increases with lead time - The suites without GFDL microphysics do not show a cold bias increasing w time https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/NGGPS/EMC MEG Evaluation of GFSv15_Manikin_SIP Meeting_20190514.pdf Okay so according to the second key point, there are suites of the GFS run without the GFDL? Why dont we just use those? Or if there aren't, why not make a para GFS that doesn't use GFDL microphysics and run that parallel to the current GFS and we can compare them to each other and give preference to the one that's more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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