wdrag Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 No topic at this time. DELTA (??), if it forms-develops, has a chance for the central Gulf Coast, and eventually ne turn that could impact us late next weekend. We'll see if the models trend further north than this highly uncertain-low confidence northern edge grazing on the tail end of the decent CAA push of late 8th-9th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Under another day filled with sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 60s across the region. Tomorrow will see early morning patchy clouds give way to partly sunny skies. Readings will again rise into the middle and upper 60s. A few places could reach 70°. Milder conditions will prevail just past midweek until a cold front brings a brief shot of unseasonably cool air into the region. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +6.83. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464. On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.327. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 10/4 PHL: 71 EWR: 69 ACY: 69 JFK: 69 New Brnswck: 68 LGA: 67 ISP: 67 TEB: 67 NYC: 67 TTN: 67 BLM: 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 64degs. Making it 59degs., or -2.5. 57*(73%RH) at 6am overcast breaking up. 64*(60%RH) by 11am. 68* by 2pm. Tropics: 22.5N 87.9W, 16.1N 73.3W. Nothing but a Trace of rain for the next 10 days on all the major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will partly to mostly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely continue through midweek. Rainfall will likely remain below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Regarding DELTA's naming and future: No change from yesterdays post on this...NAEFS is solid on its path. Suggestions for us, that it could be a rainfall miss just to the south of the NYC forum but sooo far distant that options for a further north expansion of it's moisture are still on the table. NCAR RAL checks of last ensemble EPS/GEFS paths confirm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 59 and sunny. Clouds should dissipate in WNJ / EPA. Sunny and dry the next few days with temps near normal through Wed (10/7). Thu and Fri still look chilly and possible first frosts and freezes for many who didnt get there in late September (19-22). Beyoond there the weekend looks warm and just need to watch any tropical moisture making it. Overall long range looking warmer than normal. We'll see when the switch to wet occurs beacuse odd are its coming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 I’m actually hoping that I don’t hit the freezing point (though I live in area which will be very close) as I found a large, late season pumpkin plant growing in the hillside I cleared spring 2019 (dumped old pumpkins for deer last November). Plenty of blossoms open and a few baby pumpkins started. I’m curious to see how long it will make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 22 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I’m actually hoping that I don’t hit the freezing point (though I live in area which will be very close) as I found a large, late season pumpkin plant growing in the hillside I cleared spring 2019 (dumped old pumpkins for deer last November). Plenty of blossoms open and a few baby pumpkins started. I’m curious to see how long it will make it. there isn't nearly enough time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 37 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 59 and sunny. Clouds should dissipate in WNJ / EPA. Sunny and dry the next few days with temps near normal through Wed (10/7). Thu and Fri still look chilly and possible first frosts and freezes for many who didnt get there in late September (19-22). Beyoond there the weekend looks warm and just need to watch any tropical moisture making it. Overall long range looking warmer than normal. We'll see when the switch to wet occurs beacuse odd are its coming.. It looks as if you'll have to go well to the north and west to see frost with the late week cool shot. Lows here are expected to be in the low-mid 40s. Nothing to write home about for October. Then a mild pattern for awhile, as you mentioned. So thankfully crops will be safe for awhile. My vegetable garden is still producing very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: It looks as if you'll have to go well to the north and west to see frost with the late week cool shot. Lows here are expected to be in the low-mid 40s. Nothing to write home about for October. Then a mild pattern for awhile, as you mentioned. So thankfully crops will be safe for awhile. My vegetable garden is still producing very well. The stronger wide/spread cold does seem to have been less on recent guidance . Could be Delta pumps up some warmth to mute the cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Made it up to 71 with full/mostly sunny by 12:15, now more clouds and down to 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Southern Magnolia still blooming here, I don’t know when they typically stop, but it’s been blooming since June. 69 here, should squeeze out another 70. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 fwiw on DELTA: Despite op runs of GGEM/GFS swapping path, the GFS now further N than the GGEM...the 12z/5 NAEFS is wetter... and coming fast, Sunday ish. Here's the 12z/5 NAEFS mean qpf and color coded qpf variability. If you compare to yesterdays post, it's north and offers a chance of only 0.4"+ here in the NYC forum... looking like a fast mover. It's early and if the wind doesn't play up gale gusts, and qpf is under 2", I probably won't add it as a topic, unless NYC forum members consensus thinks it worthy. Still early... 5-6 days away. Will check again Tue and Wed. Have a good night. Walt 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia all reached 70°. Tomorrow will be sunny and mild with readings again reaching or perhaps 70°. Across the Atlantic Ocean, numerous daily record highs were surpassed in Europe. A few monthly record highs were exceeded, as well. Such large outbreaks of record-breaking heat have skewed daily, monthly, and all-time records ratios in favor of the warmth. Global records data for 2020 (January 1 through October 3) are below: Daily Records: Highs: 41,428; Lows: 15,511; Ratio (H:L): 2.7 Monthly Records: Highs: 2,509; Lows: 475; Ratio (H:L): 5.3 All-Time Records: Highs: 171; Lows: 16; Ratio (H:L): 10.7 Milder conditions will prevail just past midweek until a cold front brings a brief shot of unseasonably cool air into the region. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +10.05. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.193. On October 4 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.060 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.953. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 10/5 EWR: 71 ACY: 71 NYC: 70 BLM: 70 New Brnswck: 70 JFK: 70 PHL: 70 TEB: 69 TTN: 69 ISP: 68 LGA: 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 CVSv2 is easy to describe this week. AN all the way to the third week of November starting now. (weekly averages) Much warmer look than last week's run. I do not know why they bother producing these types of outputs. We know that worldwide every month the number of square miles of the earth's surface that will be significantly AN is many times the area that will come in BN. The audacity of any model or forecaster to claim to know where the BN spots will be! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 50 kt gust potential wednesday with temps in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 67degs. Making it 62degs., or +1.0. The GFS has 11 days in the 70's, one of them 81---- over the next 17 days and it averages 66 for the period. I would make this 59 or less, given its +T bias. 70 is already AN on Oct. 01. Tropics: 21.3N 89.1W, 17.4N 81.4W 60*(84%RH) here at 6am. Down to 58* at 8am. 70* by 4pm. 72* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Delta: On the verge of making this a topic here but want to wait 24 hours more to see if the EPS/GEFS show more se 850MB flow across LI. For now, will add a few graphics to show the likelihood of at least some needed rain here, with, on the low end probability a decent nor'easter, provided DELTA's remnant low passes across s NJ and the attempted modeling of a decent surface high to our north, occurs. Being this is 6-7 days in the future I wouldn't plan on this occurring as ensembled but low chance exists for 2+" rainfall and gale gusts LI. IF the ensembles appear more definitive Wednesday morning (00z/7 cycle), I'll get this going. NAEFS 24 hr mean qpf ending 00z, Sun, Mon, Tue, NAEFS mean pattern for 00z/Mon, NAEFS low chance of 2+ inches of rain here (~25%) between 00z/Sun-00z/Tue, NAEFS probability of 30MPH wind which is ~50% for our mariner water, a family high chance-driven by the high to the north I presume. The GEFS and EPS qpf and then you can see the last chart which is WPC's forecast, sides with the drier EPS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 20 hours ago, forkyfork said: there isn't nearly enough time Agreed; just curious. If the month stays warm who knows, maybe it’ll produce a few small ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures will generally reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 71° A cool front will bring a brief period of cooler temperatures to the region later this week before temperatures rebound to above normal levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 61 and bright sunshine. Should be mostly sunny today and unlike monday when clouds developed for a good chunk of the afternoon between 1 and 4. Wednesday should be even warmer than today with highs in the mid tp upper 70s in spots. 48 hour cool down Thu - Fri with perhaps some frosts inland. Stronger cold once projected looks to stay north of the area. Weekend looks warm (outside chance of 80s in the warmer spots) ahead of any remnants of Delta later on Sun and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Tough to bet against the SE Ridge in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 i thought we had good frost potential thursday night. oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Areas that saw an early freeze in late September will probably have to wait a while for their next freeze. Frost/Freeze Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1963 05-24 (1963) 27 09-15 (1963) 32 113 1964 05-03 (1964) 31 09-16 (1964) 30 135 1984 05-18 (1984) 32 09-16 (1984) 32 120 1986 05-10 (1986) 30 09-17 (1986) 30 129 1956 05-25 (1956) 27 09-21 (1956) 32 118 1962 05-12 (1962) 32 09-21 (1962) 30 131 2020 05-14 (2020) 31 09-21 (2020) 31 129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 15 hours ago, forkyfork said: 50 kt gust potential wednesday with temps in the 70s Wind advisories issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Models turn WWW for the next two weeks. Warmer Wetter Windier 925mb winds exceed 40mph on 8 different days in the next 16, supposedly. Tomorrow's cross section. I am at the bottom center. The numbers are RH, not the wind. Compare this with area near New Orleans in about 84 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Tomorrow will be another warm day with readings reaching the 70s in much of the region. An afternoon or evening shower or thundershower is possible as a cold front moves across the region. Strong winds gusting past 45 mph could precede the frontal passage. Behind the front, a brief shot of moderately cooler air will overspread the area. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +12.83. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.193. On October 5 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.193 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.954. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 10/6 LGA: 71 EWR: 71 PHL: 71 ACY: 71 New Brnswck: 70 BLM: 70 JFK: 70 TTN: 69 TEB: 69 ISP: 69 NYC: 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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