Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?

[nrgjeff]

Euro ensembles came around last night. Majority of members have a closed low in the 11-15 day. Weenie mode activated!

! 11-15 day forecasts are disputed and often change. Prepare for disappointment! 

[John1122]

Rick Barnes and the basketball team getting covid is the most 2020 kick to the UT fanbase there could be. Hopefully they are all okay, better yet, hopefully it was a false positive like we've seen before with some NFL teams.

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Rick Barnes and the basketball team getting covid is the most 2020 kick to the UT fanbase there could be. Hopefully they are all okay, better yet, hopefully it was a false positive like we've seen before with some NFL teams.

Sounds like they've shut it down for a couple of weeks by cancelling the games with Gonzaga and Notre Dame. At this point they might as well all get it just to get it over with. 

[PowellVolz]

Sounds like they've shut it down for a couple of weeks by cancelling the games with Gonzaga and Notre Dame. At this point they might as well all get it just to get it over with. 

All of the players have had it.


.

[John1122]

This is a new standard for bizarre. Don't think I've ever seen the southern edge of a storm be snow while its raining to to the north and northwest. 

 

[raindancewx]

In the November 1950 storm, you had heavy snow on a south wind in Pittsburgh and a heavy rain event in Buffalo on a north wind, you can get all sorts of crazy stuff if  you have a strong high and low interacting in unusual ways. This is from the Washington Post on the 1950 storm   

For instance, in Pittsburgh, heavy snow was falling in 21-degree air … then as winds shifted from northwesterly to southeasterly … the temperature plunged to 9 degrees, with the arrival of the cold front from the southeast! And while Pittsburgh was at 9 degrees (and heavy snow), hundreds of miles to the north, Buffalo was experiencing a balmy 54 degrees, heavy rain and hurricane-force gusts. It’s hard to believe that the District’s temperature was nearly 50 degrees warmer than Atlanta’s!

[PowellVolz]

This is a new standard for bizarre. Don't think I've ever seen the southern edge of a storm be snow while its raining to to the north and northwest. 

 

Almost looks like a CAD situation on both sides of the apps.

 

 

.

[John1122]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

In the November 1950 storm, you had heavy snow on a south wind in Pittsburgh and a heavy rain event in Buffalo on a north wind, you can get all sorts of crazy stuff if  you have a strong high and low interacting in unusual ways. This is from the Washington Post on the 1950 storm   

For instance, in Pittsburgh, heavy snow was falling in 21-degree air … then as winds shifted from northwesterly to southeasterly … the temperature plunged to 9 degrees, with the arrival of the cold front from the southeast! And while Pittsburgh was at 9 degrees (and heavy snow), hundreds of miles to the north, Buffalo was experiencing a balmy 54 degrees, heavy rain and hurricane-force gusts. It’s hard to believe that the District’s temperature was nearly 50 degrees warmer than Atlanta’s!

 The 1950 storm featured snow on one side and rain on the other. That particular model run featured snow way down here but rain on every side of the storm otherwise.  It ended up being the only run that showed that solution. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's almost SREF plume time boys and girls!!!!

 

 

Above is for Crossville 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@BhamParker

Here is a similar, but not identical set up from Dec 21, 2018.

I mention it because I chased it up to 6000 feet and here is how the elevation changed the accumulations, at least as it was underway. I had to leave at about 6000 feet on Mt LeConte, I just didn't have the right gear for this:

 

6" in about 3 hours and a 20 mph wind gusting to 30+

But below that, here is what it looked like at about

5000-5500 feet:

 

4500 - 5000 feet:

 

2500 - 3000 feet:

 

Trail head for Bullhead trail up Mt Leconte:

 

I don't know if you are a hiker, but Bullhead trail is accessible to Gatlinburg and gets you up above 6000 feet. It's a heckuva hike though and this storm looks like it has a much better upslope component. Most of this came from a quick changeover from 6000 feet around 5 AM down to 3000 feet by 10 AM and them on down to the base of the mt. 

I think 3000 feet probably did a lot better than these pictures depict, since I had to leave early and the one I label 2500 - 3000 feet had no snow when I went up. All that accumulation was by the time I got back to that part of the trail. 

 

 

 

 

 

[BhamParker]

56 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@BhamParker

Here is a similar, but not identical set up from Dec 21, 2018.

I mention it because I chased it up to 6000 feet and here is how the elevation changed the accumulations, at least as it was underway. I had to leave at about 6000 feet on Mt LeConte, I just didn't have the right gear for this:

 

6" in about 3 hours and a 20 mph wind gusting to 30+

But below that, here is what it looked like at about

5000-5500 feet:

 

4500 - 5000 feet:

 

2500 - 3000 feet:

 

Trail head for Bullhead trail up Mt Leconte:

 

I don't know if you are a hiker, but Bullhead trail is accessible to Gatlinburg and gets you up above 6000 feet. It's a heckuva hike though and this storm looks like it has a much better upslope component. Most of this came from a quick changeover from 6000 feet around 5 AM down to 3000 feet by 10 AM and them on down to the base of the mt. 

I think 3000 feet probably did a lot better than these pictures depict, since I had to leave early and the one I label 2500 - 3000 feet had no snow when I went up. All that accumulation was by the time I got back to that part of the trail. 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow, that’s amazing how you captured those differences. When we were there for feb 2018, it was an extremely sharp cutoff as we went down into town. Many cabins had nothing and downtown gatlinburg didn’t have a flake either and we got about 2 inches. 
 

It always amazes me driving up the parkway from downtown and all the way up to newfound gap, and how much the snowfall totals increase as you get to newfound gap. 
 

Not sure we will get to do much hiking as my wife is pregnant with our first child, but we are looking forward to seeing some action. Winter is my favorite time of year and we don’t get much in Alabama, so I always keep an eye on the smokies and NC mountains for a chase opportunity. 
 

I really appreciate all yalls input and will 100% keep you posted. I’ll share some pics for sure 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Based on the 0z NAM's surface low plots, I vote we call this the Hoot Owl storm:

 

 

[John1122]

The complete fantasy but true definition of a board wide megastorm that Warbus mentioned in the pattern thread. Look at it to see what a Tennessee Valley masterpiece looks like.  This is about as good as it can get from one end of the Tennessee Valley region to the other. Very hard to pull this off because it is so far geographically from Bristol/SWVA to Eastern Arkansas/Northern Miss. 

 

[Stovepipe]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The complete fantasy but true definition of a board wide megastorm that Warbus mentioned in the pattern thread. Look at it to see what a Tennessee Valley masterpiece looks like.  This is about as good as it can get from one end of the Tennessee Valley region to the other. Very hard to pull this off because it is so far geographically from Bristol/SWVA to Eastern Arkansas/Northern Miss. 

WEENIE RUN

                                                                          

           WEENIE RUN

 

[Greyhound]

13 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

 

Stove......did you know that kid is from Coalfield...right up the road?  I sent the same GIF to one of my employees in a text and she replied back that she went to HS with her!!!

[Stovepipe]

2 hours ago, Greyhound said:

Stove......did you know that kid is from Coalfield...right up the road?  I sent the same GIF to one of my employees in a text and she replied back that she went to HS with her!!!

Wow, I had no idea!  Small world.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS happy hour for SW VA and TRI:

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Member 35 of the 12z EPS likes a snowier solstice solution:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hope @mempho is ok? 

Time to dredge out the TN Valley Panic Room/ Lifeboat decor. 

[nrgjeff]

Yes! We love our West Tennessee members too. 

I'm still recovering from the KC Chiefs ugly win last night. Well a W is a W, lol!

Finally, listened to Tennessee Christmas by Amy Grant. Wishing for snow that does not happen. Intelligent song writing. Very accurate in Chattanooga. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Anyone seen the Euro clown map for Middle? It's a real beauty.

John has it posted in the main thread.  Great track.  ICON had something similar.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NW trend FTW:

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Great start and then coasted home....but glad to have Tennessee basketball back.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The aurora could be visible at some of our latitudes according to this site:

https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast

You have to set it to Dec. 10 though and choose North America as the region to see the visibility line at the I 40 latitude. 

[nrgjeff]

Another chance tonight. Note it's around 10% and only on the horizon from a very high viewing point.

Looks like the pre-dawn kind of busted. Twitter is gnashing of teeth now. Canadian border got it, but the main CME is arriving later than first forecast. Arrival is now forecast during the late afternoon today. Could linger into early evening.

So, get out in time for first total darkness. Comet NEOWISE style. Oh yeah, up on Clingman's Dome would be great to have a 10% chance of seeing anything. I doubt anything is visible from most of our forum area.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

Carver's, I'm gonna have to cancel weathermodels and get weatherbell, gotta have access to Bastardi's proprietary snow algorithms for more hope, lol   . 

I bet that mix above was all snow on weatherbell. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS member 11 loves us and wants us to be happy:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

So we’re at the point that we have to fake punts to get 1st downs on Vandy? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Speaking of Cross Mt. @John1122, you can really see some downsloping on satellite this afternoon. 

 

 

I've been getting a little bit of upslope enhanced precip here in MoCo.