Carvers Gap Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Holston, all of that sounds bad. Is some of that good? QBO at 30mb may be poised to hit positive levels(regarding January) that we have not seen in some time. It is really high even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: What is volcanic winter? . Good question. I would like to think it means more aerosols of the kind that would lead to more snow for me, but given my experience with masiello, he probably means it in a strict academic sense that doesn't necessarily mean anything like it. I put it here since I’m not sure how he means it or what it would mean for us, but ya know, I gots to have hope, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Holston, all of that sounds bad. Is some of that good? QBO at 30mb may be poised to hit positive levels(regarding January) that we have not seen in some time. It is really high even now. Honestly I just saw “volcanic winter” and thought: ahh some good banter fodder. For myself, I just don’t know what I think. Not necessarily just about that tweet thread, but about this winter. I still feel burnt out after all the models showed the epic pattern shifts in the long range last winter only to evaporate as we got closer to verification time. Not sure I am ready for serious speculation yet and the time sink that entails. and to be fair, this whole year has kind of been a drain. For my part, at least for now, I’m in a “see where the tropical convection decides to set up,” and go from there mode. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 58 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Honestly I just saw “volcanic winter” and thought: ahh some good banter fodder. For myself, I just don’t know what I think. Not necessarily just about that tweet thread, but about this winter. I still feel burnt out after all the models showed the epic pattern shifts in the long range last winter only to evaporate as we got closer to verification time. Not sure I am ready for serious speculation yet and the time sink that entails. and to be fair, this whole year has kind of been a drain. For my part, at least for now, I’m in a “see where the tropical convection decides to set up,” and go from there mode. I truly don't understand the warmth around the PV. Seems like that would split it or maybe it means it is tightening up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 5 hours ago, PowellVolz said: What is volcanic winter? . Volcanic winter is a frigid winter, that can linger and causes temps to be 3 to 5c below normal, even into summer. It's caused by aerosolized sulfur in the atmosphere from eruptions. Not sure why he's using it in those tweets as I'm not sure what volcanic activity in the last year or two that was that large. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Researchers are notorious for throwing up theory on Twitter with no operational forecast implications. I read tight polar vortex. That's a mild signal. Maybe I just see everything as warmer than normal winter news. Some folks were asking/hoping the fire smoke would be a useful aerosol. Probably not enough of it, believe it or not. 1. Anthony is really good at operational forecasting, but can't share directly, due to his job. 2. Butler is amazing and will share implications occasionally, but only in her own threads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 A year ago today we were getting snowfall. It actually was Knoxville's largest event of cold season per WVLT. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 3 hours ago, John1122 said: A year ago today we were getting snowfall. It actually was Knoxville's largest event of cold season per WVLT. 4" here from that last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 4 hours ago, Blue Moon said: That's wild. My largest event came on Feb 6th, when I received a wet 1.8" of snow. Nothing to write home about, but I was happy to have it at the time A 2 incher hasn't been all that easy to come by for a lot of the forum lately, so that's a happy day of snow. Welcome to the forum, glad you joined and hope you post as frequently as you can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Welcome Blue Moon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Blue Moon said: Thanks, y'all! I'm an amateur, but I'm glad to join the discussion among professionals and experienced weather hobbyists. This looks like a very mature and informed board. Welcome aboard! Yeah, great weather forum. Too many great posters to name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Welcome @Blue Moon and jump right in! This sub-form Tennessee Valley of American Weather is one of my favorite places for weather discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrookeM Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Hello! I am new to this forum too and I was looking for some advice. I am not sure if this is the right place to post this, but I could'nt find any irrigation related threads. I am trying to decide between Aeris, Weatherbit and Climacell for integration to weather nodeserver for irrigation. Can anyone guide me in the right direction please? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Welcome @BrookeM and enjoy the forum. We have a Garden thread. Can anybody help with the irrigation question above? All I know how to do is kill plants with my brown thumb, lol! In true banter, I lament the KC Chiefs are once again not on TV here. On the bright side their defense can't give me a fourth quarter heart attack on TV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 12 hours ago, BrookeM said: Hello! I am new to this forum too and I was looking for some advice. I am not sure if this is the right place to post this, but I could'nt find any irrigation related threads. I am trying to decide between Aeris, Weatherbit and Climacell for integration to weather nodeserver for irrigation. Can anyone guide me in the right direction please? I feel certain that we have some actual farmers on this forum, even if they just lurk some. @Coach B, is this in your wheelhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Not sure if this is a true observation with no measuring equipment, so I placed in banter. I was on a backpacking trip this weekend in the Smokies. Saturday night the wind was terrifying. Everyone in my group was pretty sure someone would be hit by a falling limb or tree. The most vivid memory I have is the sound. You could hear what sounded like a jet engine off in the distance. The sound would get louder as it got closer and then the wind would hit, small limbs falling and could hear the sounds of larger ones in the distance. Then - it would quieten down for a minute before the next gust. They came in waves every couple of minutes. But you knew they were coming because of hearing the approach. Each "wave" was another "hope I survive it" moment. Everyone did survive - at least physically. I doubt anyone of us will ever forget that night. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 EPS member 16 at day 14 FTW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 EPS member 16 at day 14 FTW:. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Probably time for a December thread OR just a winter thread (part I) as the LR discussions are taking us there now. Who feels like they have the mojo? You could be a legend if it is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 Hopefully the Vols show some signs of life tomorrow. Probably nothing short of winning 4 of our potential final 5 can salvage Pruitt in my eyes. I expect it to be 1-4 assuming we get and accept a bowl game. I figure since everyone is eligible this year regardless of record we will probably get an invite no matter how bad we've looked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 A little Saturday surprise at the end of the 12z GFS today: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 One of those times I wish the GFS had just run about 48 more hours: I think it would have been an epic fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Interesting analysis of the NAO for TN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 18z GFS mega cut-off accumulations...like four days of snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 It's shown some version of that for quite a few runs in a row. It just seems to grown the snow shield with each run. I guess it's technically possible or the model wouldn't simulate it. I'd probably say it's a 500:1 shot though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/15/2020 at 1:49 PM, Carvers Gap said: I feel certain that we have some actual farmers on this forum, even if they just lurk some. @Coach B, is this in your wheelhouse? Sorry just now seeing this. Nope, I can talk cows, chickens, bees, and firewood. That's about the extent of my country living. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 hour ago, John1122 said: It's shown some version of that for quite a few runs in a row. It just seems to grown the snow shield with each run. I guess it's technically possible or the model wouldn't simulate it. I'd probably say it's a 500:1 shot though. You are right. It had a cutoff in the West for days. Has had at least a couple of cutoffs over TN. With that big area of blocking over the top, it appears steering winds are minimal. Almost like a tropical storm under a big ridge. The end of the 18z GFS run had like 3 lined-up. Crazy looking stuff. And agree. Makes me think we may see a very slow mover at some point....could be rain or wintery. Not a cutoff, but just a series of systems which move very slowly. Might even be a realistic flooding threat if not snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Needless to say, very little ensemble support for that. 2/30 members have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Autocorrect is absolutely shredding my posts today. I have to get bifocals strengthened in my glasses - actually went for an eye appointment today. So, when it autocorrects...it sort of looks right when I am on my phone. Went back and read some posts this evening on my computer(bigger print). Looked like some of the older posts were written in Old English. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looked like some of the older posts were written in Old English. "Eall is earfoðlic eorþan rice, onwendeð wyrda gesceaft weoruld under heofonum." --Summary of model roulette. This is what happens when there are happy hour weenie runs and I have to replace plumbing all day. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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