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TS Wilfred

SENC

By SENC,
in Tropical Headquarters

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SENC

SENC

Posted
Posted

Quote..

Quote

  


Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of 
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Environmental conditions are conducive for development of 
this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.[/quote]

 

Maybe Our Cat5 Caribbean Cruiser? 

 

 

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SENC

SENC

Posted
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Posted

8PM update..

  

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south 
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical 
depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable 
over the weekend.  This system is forecast to move 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Windspeed

Posted
Posted

98L has a vigorous mid level circulation due to a strong and persistent MCS on the SW axis of the wave. There may be a new low level circulation developing there but this presentation might already be enough to get it classified a depression by 11AM AST. There is shear in the forecast thanks to current strong ENE flow and then future interaction with a TUTT being boosted by Teddy's outflow.815f6c23aa418249815562ce8d335328.gif

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Windspeed

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Posted
Posted 
000
WTNT43 KNHC 181435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over 
the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning.  In 
addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit 
with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center.  
The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with 
scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the 
eastern side of the storm).  Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing 
the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is 
the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier 
than Vince of 2005.

Further intensification is possible during the next day or two 
before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the 
path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days.  That 
should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and 
most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up 
into a trough by day 5.  The official forecast follows this 
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the 
consensus and corrected-consensus aids.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt.  The storm 
is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, 
owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. 
The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is 
near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the 
direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus.  I should mention that 
if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a 
bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected 
southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back 
west-northwestward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 11.9N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 12.6N  34.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 13.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 14.5N  40.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 15.6N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 16.7N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 17.3N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 18.0N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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SENC

SENC

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Joey Logano's 22 failed post race inspection, 98L is the winneremoji23.pngemoji23.pngemoji23.png


 

Lordy,, Orangeburgwx, I wouldn't have figured you to be a "Race Fan"..

That said...

Back to Wilfred..

Going with the Theme of It's being 2020, Unexpected things have Happened that Surprised ALL of US, Forcaster(s) AND the NHC..

In the Weather Forecasting World..

(Remembering Laura & Sally & Isaias)..

I believe We had better to expect the Unexpected.. 

Shear, Hispaniola Shedder, Upwelling, TUTTS, Throughs, are seemingly  NOT  having the "expected" effects, of "dissipation", weakening, or what-have-you. 

I think We can expect the same with, Wilfred..

I read the NHC Disco, the last two paragraphs were so much "Word salad", I mean, it seems even the NHC is not quite sure what to exactly expect..

Along with the Models, Not having a firm grasp on the future evolutions of this years TC's..

I honestly don't expect Wilfred to fully "dissipate,

My "reasoning"??? It's 2020 after all..

Of course 22L.. Failed post race inspection

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SENC

SENC

Posted
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Posted 
It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it
is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated
circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either
obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave
imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast
oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible
imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide
more information about Wilfred's status later this morning. The
intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but
more recent Dvorak estimates are lower.

Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred's status and
location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In
general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a
west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by
early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one
and lies near the middle of the guidance suite.

Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity
forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates
due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry
environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough
varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that
Wilfred won't last much longer than another day or two. The NHC 
forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the 
previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as 
soon as later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 15.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 15.7N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 16.2N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 16.5N  48.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 16.7N  50.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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