Tropical Storm Beta

[Windspeed]

TD22 will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta @ 4 PM CDT by the NHC. Best track per TAFB:

Quote

AL, 22, 2020091818,   , BEST,   0, 239N,  933W,  35, 1005, TS

 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z GFS is stronger (low-end cane), throws on the brakes just barely offshore, really rakes the coast of Texas with torrential rain as it drifts north and then northeast along the coast.

Kinda surprised no one has dropped the “Harvey” analog yet.. 

I haven’t looked into it but I believe Harvey also occurred during a significant -NAO, which seems we will likely have this time as well. 

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Kinda surprised no one has dropped the “Harvey” analog yet.. 

I haven’t looked into it but I believe Harvey also occurred during a significant -NAO, which seems we will likely have this time as well. 

 

 

The amount of spread in the ensembles even 24-48hr out is pretty amazing. That said, if this thing manages to stay offshore after the westward turn, it'll have a favorable period for intensification. Oh, where have we heard that one before?

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon has found the center a fair bit farther east and north than the NHC 4pm advisory.  This could make it more likely it'll come to a halt before reaching the Texas coast.

Edit:  I just realized there could be an elongation farther southward.  Let's see what recon finds.

Edit:  Nope, that was the center... nothing farther south.

[hawkeye_wx]

1000 mb is the pressure found by recon.

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon finding a slightly stronger system, though it does look elongated 

[brentrich]

So is there a possible we will be seeing a major hurricane in the brewing? 

[MUWX]

Some very impressive RI probs on the latest ships guidance 

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, brentrich said:

So is there a possible we will be seeing a major hurricane in the brewing? 

I don’t think so. However, the environment around this system is complex. Shear will decrease, then change vector, then really decrease, but extremely dry air will be a factor, as will land. There will be moments this system can take advantage of, but in talking about majors, you usually see less barriers. I learned a lesson with sally though: never write off a gulf system. That storm was 6 hours from being a major, amazingly. I don’t think the ceiling is high for Beta, given the above reasons. I’m not locked into that call, though, as this is an extremely challenging environment 

[Santa Claus]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t think so. However, the environment around this system is complex. Shear will decrease, then change vector, then really decrease, but extremely dry air will be a factor, as will land. There will be moments this system can take advantage of, but in talking about majors, you usually see less barriers. I learned a lesson with sally though: never write off a gulf system. That storm was 6 hours from being a major, amazingly. I don’t think the ceiling is high for Beta, given the above reasons. I’m not locked into that call, though, as this is an extremely challenging environment 

nice post, thanks.

[hawkeye_wx]

Now the GFS touches the coast of Texas, then drifts back out over the gulf where it meanders and fades through day ten.

[Cheeznado]

Center completely exposed, the latest HRRR has it too strong right now and even with that it weakens it to 40kts at landfall. So even the big flood type scenario is looking iffy right now.

[Maestrobjwa]

53 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Center completely exposed, the latest HRRR has it too strong right now and even with that it weakens it to 40kts at landfall. So even the big flood type scenario is looking iffy right now.

Uh...can we even say that yet? Isn't this thing supposed to be meandering for several days before landfall?

[Cheeznado]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...can we even say that yet? Isn't this thing supposed to be meandering for several days before landfall?

I said iffy, that is still very possible but there are some caveats. EDIT: well, now there is a burst of convection near the center. So who knows.

 

[wkd]

17 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

I said iffy, that is still very possible but there are some caveats. EDIT: well, now there is a burst of convection near the center. So who knows.

 

It's 2020 and it's a gulf storm. It will be at least a cat 2.

[Normandy]

Making declarations on lower flooding potential for a slow moving / stalling system in the gulf seems odd.  Rainfall amounts are not tied to windspeed in any way...unless you are thinking the storm will be a eastern heavy system throughout it's life?

Latest tracks are wild for this one.  GFS hits corpus and Houston both from the east...so 2020

[dan11295]

14 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Making declarations on lower flooding potential for a slow moving / stalling system in the gulf seems odd.  Rainfall amounts are not tied to windspeed in any way...unless you are thinking the storm will be a eastern heavy system throughout it's life?

Latest tracks are wild for this one.  GFS hits corpus and Houston both from the east...so 2020

Am guessing the expectation is drier air will cut down on the precip?

[Amped]

ECMWF also came way northeast with it's track. Looks like landfall near Port O'connor.

Edit. So much for stalling along the coast  stalls over San Antonio this run. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The trend is to keep Beta in the 990s, at best, move inland, and fade away.  A few models drift a low back over water a bit, but it's very weak.  

[Amped]

Beta not going to be a winddstorm. 

Gotta watch that feeder band over LA.  It's forecast to stall for 60 hrs.  It might be able to produce a little more than the 6-10" of rain the GFS  is showing.

[Radtechwxman]

Beta looks like a pile of crap on satellite. Shear and dry air are taking its toll. Wonder if Beta can pull a 2020 and shock us all. My bets are no on this one

[SENC]

NHC Disco/Update...

Beta has generally changed little overnight.  The storm remains
strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the north and
northeast of the low-level center.  A combination of flight-level,
SFMR, and dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters a few
hours ago supports keeping the 50-kt initial intensity.  It should
be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest
winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast
behind an old frontal boundary.

Beta was caught in weak steering currents for nearly a day, but
it now seems to be moving.  The current initial motion estimate is
west-northwestward at 3 kt. A mid-level ridge currently centered
over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to slide eastward, which
should cause Beta to move a little faster to the west-northwestward
later today.  This motion should continue for a couple of days,
taking the storm to the Texas coast on Monday or Monday night.
After Beta moves inland, the ridge is forecast to move away as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  This change in the
pattern is expected to cause Beta to slow down, or even stall, on
Tuesday and then turn northeastward after that.  The NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is
fairly similar to the previous prediction.

The tropical storm is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of
southwesterly wind shear and a fair amount of dry air, especially
on the west side of the circulation.  Since the shear is not
expected to decrease much while Beta moves into an even drier and
more stable air mass, little change in intensity is expected
through landfall in 36 to 48 hours.  After Beta moves inland,
steady weakening is forecast due to a combination of land
interaction, dry air, and an increase in southwesterly shear.  The
models are in fair agreement, and this forecast is largely an
update of the previous one.

[Windspeed]

[NorthHillsWx]

Beta actually looks slightly more organized this hour than all day yesterday. Holding its own 

[Windspeed]

Beta actually looks slightly more organized this hour than all day yesterday. Holding its own 

Perhaps shear has decreased just enough to allow for some alignment.

[Normandy]

Actually has a formative eyewall on radar now.  

[Windspeed]

The surface circulation is definitely taking jumps west closer to that vigorous mid level circulation per recon. LLC reformation appears to be underway. There is still shear and dry stable air but perhaps if Beta can form a core that will allow it to fight back. At any rate, this is a sign that Beta could have a period of intensification this afternoon.

[CheeselandSkies]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The surface circulation is definitely taking jumps west closer to that vigorous mid level circulation per recon. LLC reformation appears to be underway. There is still shear and dry stable air but perhaps if Beta can form a core that will allow it to fight back. At any rate, this is a sign that Beta could have a period of intensification this afternoon.

Beta House giving it the ol' college try.

[WEATHER53]

Teddy not getting any action so will ask here

How large will the offshore and onshore waves be from Teddy for MD beaches and what is time frame?

thanks 

 

 

[Windspeed]

Teddy not getting any action so will ask here

How large will the offshore and onshore waves be from Teddy for MD beaches and what is time frame?

thanks 

 

 

That's not how this works. It's quiet at the moment because forecast and intensity trends are fairly locked down and there is no land interaction other than some marginal effects on Bermuda currently. But that doesn't mean you should ask the question in another storm thread. Delete your post and put it in the correct thread. Someone will notice.