Windspeed Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Going ahead with a thread for 90L. It already has the appearance on visible in the lower level cloud field of possessing a closed surface low. This may get classified by this evening and be a landfall threat in Mexico or possibly S. Texas. Another slow mover and flooding threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Already some model support for development. Intensity models generally show strengthening until landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Impressive satellite appearance on IR 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 It's already showing some promising formations. The only real threat to it's development is it's proximity to the shore. That didn't stop Sally though. It will be interesting to see if this race with 98L to become Wilfred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Yep, GFS actually brings it near to where sally made landfall, stalls it out, then loops back SW. I think a wide range of track possibilities are on the table. Models definitely sniffing this one out though, unlike sally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 UKMET says it may do something as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 This is definitely not needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Euro has it spinning around in the western gulf for a while before heading towards Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 16, 2020 Author Share Posted September 16, 2020 Well that's not good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 cool and good imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 I don't envy the NHC if/when they have to come up with a cone for this one... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 shrimp people storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 37 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Well that's not good. funny how euro shows storms weak like laura and sally.. it's showing this storm weak as well uh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 16, 2020 Author Share Posted September 16, 2020 funny how euro shows storms weak like laura and sally.. it's showing this storm weak as well uh oh...I don't really pay the ops too much mind for intensity. Sure, it's eye-opening when they go bonkers on a particular system. You do want it to show a deep versus shallow feature, especially in the mid-levels. But generally the global ops have underperformed on intensity for systems that have not yet developed this year. Of course the TC models handle that better once a TCG has occurred however, which what they are better designed for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said: shrimp people storm Is this worse than swamp people storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Is this worse than swamp people storm? I don’t know, I am just trying to use the same terminology that cutting edge red taggers use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 41 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 50 minutes ago, nycwinter said: funny how euro shows storms weak like laura and sally.. it's showing this storm weak as well uh oh... I don't really pay the ops too much mind for intensity. Sure, it's eye-opening when they go bonkers on a particular system. You do want it to show a deep versus shallow feature, especially in the mid-levels. But generally the global ops have underperformed on intensity for systems that have not yet developed this year. Of course the TC models handle that better once a TCG has occurred however, which what they are better designed for. I only use ops before a storm forms to find potential. When systems show up consistently on the ops, as this has, it usually means there’s a good chance for development. For intensity, they are good to look at for trends, strengthening vs weakening, once a system has formed, but not for actual intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 Recon is scheduled for today. By the time they get there, this may be a depression or even a TS. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning in association with a well-defined low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Still looks a little “popcorns” but making progress. This system will be in no hurry to go anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Recon is scheduled for today. By the time they get there, this may be a depression or even a TS. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning in association with a well-defined low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. I am sure that this year tropically will be studied and restudied by meteorology students but it is amazing to me how when conditions are "tweaked" by just a little bit, like this year, so many of the thunderstorm complexes develop into something that has to be watched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 It also looks like a broad area of rotation in a larger trough. It would not surprise me to see center formation in the NE envelope, as some models have predicted. That blowup there this morning seems consistent and less pulse like. It may be able to induce pressure falls and eventually become the dominant center. Waiting on visible this am. Overall it’s a healthy looking system, probably will become at least a TD today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Though conditions are generally favorable now, some strong southerly shear looks to be present the further north the system gets in the gulf in a few days. I think that’s why we’re seeing some modeling show a sharp bend to the left, depicting a shallow system caught in low level steering flow. Too early to tell, but the long term prognosis of this disturbance does not look ideal for significant intensification over the long run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 90L looks to have several areas of vorticity along the axis of the elongated surface trough. However, in the last three or four hours, it looks like a dominate vorticity maximum is taking over along the southwest extension of the trough. Really need recon. Somewhere in this mess may be a closed surface circulation. If it happens to be under that more dominate mid level vort max, we may have ourselves a TC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 90L looks to have several areas of vorticity along the axis of the elongated surface trough. However, in the last three or four hours, it looks like a dominate vorticity maximum is taking over along the southwest extension of the trough. Really need recon. Somewhere in this mess may be a closed surface circulation. If it happens to be under that more dominate mid level vort max, we may have ourselves a TC. Need recon for sure. Slowly getting its act together. With generally favorable conditions this thing could ramp up quicker than forecast by models to do so. It already seems ahead of the curve Hard to tell but looking at LL clouds undershooting the middle area of vorticity you outlined makes me believe that MAY be the dominant center. See a lot of north moving clouds to the east of the high convective tops, maybe some west to east moving clouds below it. Very hard to tell, last ASCAT made it seem like center would be further south but obviously fluid at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 And just like that, we're a go for recon... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 Might be semantics but I kind of hope recon does find a TS beyond just a classified depression. Reason being that there doesn't appear to be any reason why this won't eventually get named as it looks to be getting better and better organized. However it's quite possible the EATL subtropical system will gain enough organization by 5 PM AST to get named as it is already a vigorous subtropical circulation with TS force winds in the eastern semicircle. Granted, data is data, but 90L could become a real big problem for someone on the GOM coast and I'd rather it get a legitimate seasonal name that could be retired if an unfortunate bad scenario unfolds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 For globals lolz, the GFS has 3 TC in the Gulf/Bay of Campeche between now and mid next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 The environment down the line for this one is not especially conducive. While models do show development, I’ll be surprised if this becomes more than a minimal cane. Fropa in a few days will introduce dry, stable air into the area in association with 20-30kts of shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: For globals lolz, the GFS has 3 TC in the Gulf/Bay of Campeche between now and mid next week. . CMC shows even more of a 2020 solution. Stalls 20 Miles off the TX coast for 3 days, then hits Florida. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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