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TD Sally


jrips27
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  On 9/15/2020 at 6:33 PM, Lookout said:

12z euro showing a bullseye of  around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but  6  to 8 seems reasonable. 

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Seeing as though the forecast keeps trending S/E with the highest totals, I'd say you are correct about being in the bullseye for this thing. FFC has me with 4-6" or so but I'll believe it when I see it. I've heard there will be a very shart cutoff on the north side and I just hope I'm not too far N/W to get some decent totals.

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How is the heaviest rain forecast to be so far north of the center's path? I always thought the heaviest rain was along and to the east of the center which would be Columbus to Macon to Augusta in this instance. For a cyclone that will traverse almost as far south if not as far south as Macon, hard to believe some of its heaviest rain could occur as far north as the northern ATL burbs but maybe I'm wrong, just doubtful.

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  On 9/15/2020 at 6:27 PM, jjwxman said:

9/15/2020 12Z GFS Total accumulated rainfall through Hr 78.   FWIW: The NAM has even more rainfall over the I-85 Corridor.   

image.png

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Honestly I've had so many 3-4 inch events over the past 3 years another one will seem like nothing; just another drop in the bucket. I want no part of the euro's 6-10 though.

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  On 9/16/2020 at 6:48 PM, calculus1 said:

Wow!  Those are big amounts around Hickory on the Euro.  Much bigger than the NAM, WPC, and NWS.

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Yea I think there will be higher amounts in the favored upslope areas in the foothills and upstate. Euro may be catching on to this. The euro tracks it much further north as well

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma (1).png

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