jrips27 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Appears increasingly likely that Sally will bring widespread heavy rainfall to much of the SE. Particularly the I-85 corridor. Wind threat appears low, but 6-12" of rain can produce problems so figured it was worth a thread. Happy tracking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 The mountains and foothills look to be on the northern edge for now and it's a good thing. Water levels are still high here and 5+ inches of rain would cause pretty big river flooding issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 9/15/2020 12Z GFS Total accumulated rainfall through Hr 78. FWIW: The NAM has even more rainfall over the I-85 Corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 15, 2020 Author Share Posted September 15, 2020 New Euro totals below. Ticked a little SE with main swath of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 12z euro showing a bullseye of around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but 6 to 8 seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z euro showing a bullseye of around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but 6 to 8 seems reasonable. The 12z Euro is much slower with the remnants over AL and GA before the front sweeps it out. If that verifies, the double digits could be attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Lookout said: 12z euro showing a bullseye of around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but 6 to 8 seems reasonable. Seeing as though the forecast keeps trending S/E with the highest totals, I'd say you are correct about being in the bullseye for this thing. FFC has me with 4-6" or so but I'll believe it when I see it. I've heard there will be a very shart cutoff on the north side and I just hope I'm not too far N/W to get some decent totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 15, 2020 Author Share Posted September 15, 2020 New WPC map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 How is the heaviest rain forecast to be so far north of the center's path? I always thought the heaviest rain was along and to the east of the center which would be Columbus to Macon to Augusta in this instance. For a cyclone that will traverse almost as far south if not as far south as Macon, hard to believe some of its heaviest rain could occur as far north as the northern ATL burbs but maybe I'm wrong, just doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 8 hours ago, jjwxman said: 9/15/2020 12Z GFS Total accumulated rainfall through Hr 78. FWIW: The NAM has even more rainfall over the I-85 Corridor. Honestly I've had so many 3-4 inch events over the past 3 years another one will seem like nothing; just another drop in the bucket. I want no part of the euro's 6-10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Euro and UKMET still shows heaviest rain for upstate and N GA with lighter amounts for the mountains. GFS is a bit further north along with the Hires NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Latest rainfall forecast from WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Latest rainfall forecast from NWS GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Latest rainfall forecast on the 3K NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 RGEM / RDPS and IBM GRAF 4km (from @MJVentrice) are 2 models that are farther south with the axis of heaviest rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Euro and UK went slightly north with the heaviest rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 47 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro and UK went slightly north with the heaviest rain Wow! Those are big amounts around Hickory on the Euro. Much bigger than the NAM, WPC, and NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 59 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro Looks like a good 4-6+ for the southern escarpment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Wow! Those are big amounts around Hickory on the Euro. Much bigger than the NAM, WPC, and NWS. Yea I think there will be higher amounts in the favored upslope areas in the foothills and upstate. Euro may be catching on to this. The euro tracks it much further north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 NAM has trended north too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 The 18z EURO bumped more NW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: The 18z EURO bumped more NW... 00Z NAM continuing the theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 28 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 00Z NAM continuing the theme Which in turn increases the severe threat over a larger portion of central NC. Look at this sounding about 30 miles south of Greensboro Thursday night via the 00z NAM 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Which in turn increases the severe threat over a larger portion of central NC. Look at this sounding about 30 miles south of Greensboro Thursday night via the 00z NAM 12km. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Getting some pretty "wicked" Bands of T-storms coming onto the Coast ATM, Cloudiness & steady "light rain" started this afternoon, Now getting T-storms, coming off the Ocean, Heavy rain/Wind(s) & lighting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Already 1.75 near Marion. NWS GSP map had a total of 2-3 inches last time I looked but thats going to be on the low end it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Only about 0.7 inches IMBY so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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