SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 18 runs of the Hi Res really want to blow up that lake band over BUF. 4-6” of rain through Friday AM? KBUF office doesn’t even sound interested in their AFD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 18 runs of the Hi Res really want to blow up that lake band over BUF. 4-6” of rain through Friday AM? KBUF office doesn’t even sound interested in their AFD... They should be excited because it’s cool but likely a non event from the standpoint of any sort of damage or concern. If we half those totals so they are realistic, 2-3 inches of rain in 24-36 hours after weeks of below normal rainfall is beneficial and likely easily absorbed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: They should be excited because it’s cool but likely a non event from the standpoint of any sort of damage or concern. If we half those totals so they are realistic, 2-3 inches of rain in 24-36 hours after weeks of below normal rainfall is beneficial and likely easily absorbed. As long as this replicates itself in about 9 weeks or so I'll be fine with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 @wolfie09, the second and third in the first set were from Great Bear between Phoenix and Fulton. I love all the trails there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Haha Nice!! I know it well, would take my dog there quite often as a pup . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 29, 2020 Author Share Posted September 29, 2020 Just got back from Lake George for my buddies bachelor party. It was warm enough Saturday to take a boat out and go tubing and cliff jumping. Then hiked up and backpacked the Gothic high peak loop on Sunday/Monday. It was sunny and warm in the town and chilly and wet the entire 15 hour and 19 mile hike. Just brutal up there! The entire high peak region is just about at peak foliage. Unfortunately couldn't see anything above 3,000 feet due to being in the clouds/fog. Up to 19/46 peaks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 29, 2020 Author Share Posted September 29, 2020 RGEM shows 4-6" of lake effect rain next few days. Well there goes our prime metro area LES event... It's used up for the year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Might only be rain but I’m pretty pumped to follow this setup for the next couple days. KBUF still downplaying the rain totals. Most model output is showing 3-6” of rain over the next 3 days... KBUF saying “weak lake effect rain showers” and just an inch or so. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 CF pushed through around 6am.. Wpc qpf forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: CF pushed through around 6am.. Wpc qpf forecast.. There is definitely a model that KBUF is looking at that's not impressive. Just not sure which one it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 11 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: @wolfie09, the second and third in the first set were from Great Bear between Phoenix and Fulton. I love all the trails there! Good place to hike. I snowshoe there in the winter also. Rain just got going here down to 58F. I guess its adios to our last gasp of summer... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: There is definitely a model that KBUF is looking at that's not impressive. Just not sure which one it is... It’s because the total precip output maps are notoriously off by a factor of 2 or even 3x. We all know this from the clown maps during all winter storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 53 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It’s because the total precip output maps are notoriously off by a factor of 2 or even 3x. We all know this from the clown maps during all winter storms. I agree about the clownmaps during the winter, but ultimately I chalk that up to ratios and storm intensity and track. In the spring summer and fall I kinda believe the liquid amounts of rainfall more than the accumulation of snow/sleet. Now I'm definitely not advocating were getting 4" to 6" by any stretch but 2" to 2 1/2" would not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 43 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I agree about the clownmaps during the winter, but ultimately I chalk that up to ratios and storm intensity and track. In the spring summer and fall I kinda believe the liquid amounts of rainfall more than the accumulation of snow/sleet. Now I'm definitely not advocating were getting 4" to 6" by any stretch but 2" to 2 1/2" would not surprise me. Much needed, btw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Mark it on the calendar! KBUF will be blind for week starting 10/8. I would expect nothing less than some sort of impactful storm affecting us during the outage. Will be exciting to get the upgrade before the start of LES season though! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 How cute! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 So far little less than 1/2" on the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 9 hours ago, Syrmax said: Good place to hike. I snowshoe there in the winter also. Rain just got going here down to 58F. I guess its adios to our last gasp of summer... Great idea. I will have to take my snowshoes with me in the winter. I probably won't get out of work in time to do it in the evenings I love the 10K trail (yellow trail). You get back in those deep woods and there is nobody around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 This "cold" shot sure fizzled away. One day of 50s for highs and then it's pretty much back to normal temps for early October. Cold fronts bring "normal" temps these days...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 29 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: This "cold" shot sure fizzled away. One day of 50s for highs and then it's pretty much back to normal temps for early October. Cold fronts bring "normal" temps these days...lol Tug where are you at now? The forecast for temps the next 6 days are all below average and 4 of them in the upper 50's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Tug where are you at now? The forecast for temps the next 6 days are all below average and 4 of them in the upper 50's... The Syracuse region...the warmest place in Upstate New York (outside of maybe Dansville and Elmira)...somebody could fart on top of one of the hills South of here and our temps would warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: This "cold" shot sure fizzled away. One day of 50s for highs and then it's pretty much back to normal temps for early October. Cold fronts bring "normal" temps these days...lol The forecast changes over the last few days have been a good winter preseason reminder for all of us that: a) The models will constantly show cold air *just* around the corner, and; b) The models will show multiple large lake effect events which will dwindle to a minor event, probably in a different location, once the event actually takes place. I’m not trying to be negative, but the 7-10 day forecast often looks cold and/or snowy, only for it to fade as we get closer to those actual dates. Then the process starts over again.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Thunder and lightning here in Williamsville as the northern part of the lake Erie band gets its act together. Very heavy rain ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Small hail as well!!! Damn it why couldn't this be 8 weeks from now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Round 2 upcoming and round three out over the lake just looks plain nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Round 2 upcoming and round three out over the lake just looks plain nasty. Yeah, just started really cranking here. We haven’t received any meaningful rain here since early June (the lake shadow did it’s best to make my neighborhood a desert this summer), so this is a welcome sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Yeah, just started really cranking here. We haven’t received any meaningful rain here since early June (the lake shadow did it’s best to make my neighborhood a desert this summer), so this is a welcome sight. The lake is active! Im close to 1" for the day since 7am. The diurnal effects are taking hold, even one month later this would be a steady, solid band instead of cellular precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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