Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

One of my favorite things about living in the Great Lakes region is you can usually get some surprises in there...even if the pattern is meh. The pattern has been so infiltrated with either Pacific air or SE Ridging the past couple winters that even our location/generally lower elevation can't make much of anything work in it. If we could just get some marginal cold air that hangs in for longer than 24 hours...

We usually only get surprises if cold air is there though. I remember getting a foot of lake effect with no advs or warnings in effect a few years ago, was awesome. 

[BuffaloWeather]

lock it in

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

We usually only get surprises if cold air is there though. I remember getting a foot of lake effect with no advs or warnings in effect a few years ago, was awesome. 

Yeah, if we don't have some cold, it's pretty much another maritime climate...with damp, dark 40s and 50s. That's why clipper patterns are some of my favorites. Most of the rest of the country hates them...but that's when the Great Lakes region can prosper. The clipper pattern has been pretty rare the past decade. I recall a couple of winters in the 2000s having some good clipper patterns.

[cleetussnow]

32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Canadian also has another system coming up the coast that looks like it hurts our chances for lake effect (at least initially) lol So much going on that's for sure..

 

Gfs has something like this as well.  I like the period from here on out for some cold and snow chances.  If we can manage a snow otg over the holidays that’s a win.  

[cleetussnow]

From her I mean from dec. 4th and beyond

[wolfie09]

Ukmet came in east as well..

 

[wolfie09]

Even with a track through ENY it's to warm for snow, not much phasing on the ukmet(through hr144),we need that northern stream to inject some colder air and bomb out..

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro is going to be amped. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Nice storm

[TugHillMatt]

Wow...check out those gradients. That would be quite the windy storm and really gusty on the backside.

[BuffaloWeather]

It just sits and spins in Ohio for days. Tossed. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It just sits and spins in Ohio for days. Tossed. 

Why would anything want to sit in Ohio? 

[wolfie09]

Yeah it's worst case scenario lol Can't even get some lake effect in..It may sit and "pinwheel" somewhere..

[TugHillMatt]

If it stays on this course, looks like my sis in law in Tennessee could see the first inch of snow before some of us. Seems to be an increasing trend that the Mid-Atlantic and up through lower elevations of New York State/Parts of New England are one of the last places to see their first accum. snowfall. Clock-work: Cold air dives down through the Plains Southeastward and then we get this big ridge that cuts the storms up to the west of us while the Mid-South gets some winter. I know that's a common late fall pattern. I suppose we see where all these parts play on the "chess board" and if we can shake things up.

[CNY_WX]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

One of my favorite things about living in the Great Lakes region is you can usually get some surprises in there...even if the pattern is meh. The pattern has been so infiltrated with either Pacific air or SE Ridging the past couple winters that even our location/generally lower elevation can't make much of anything work in it. If we could just get some marginal cold air that hangs in for longer than 24 hours...

Monday night could have been one of those surprises here but the temperature was just a couple degrees too warm.  0.75 inch of liquid could have easily produced a foot of snow.  The models were showing some activity off the lake but I don’t think it was nearly that much. 

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, CNY_WX said:

Monday night could have been one of those surprises here but the temperature was just a couple degrees too warm.  0.75 inch of liquid could have easily produced a foot of snow.  The models were showing some activity off the lake but I don’t think it was nearly that much. 

Wow! Yeah, I was watching that train over you and down through Madison county. The Canastota area seemed to get hit pretty good. Probably being away from the big lake helped them stay colder. When I checked the webcams there, the Thruway was covered, along with all other surfaces.

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

If it stays on this course, looks like my sis in law in Tennessee could see the first inch of snow before some of us. Seems to be an increasing trend that the Mid-Atlantic and up through lower elevations of New York State/Parts of New England are one of the last places to see their first accum. snowfall. Clock-work: Cold air dives down through the Plains Southeastward and then we get this big ridge that cuts the storms up to the west of us while the Mid-South gets some winter. I know that's a common late fall pattern. I suppose we see where all these parts play on the "chess board" and if we can shake things up.

I don’t see the system acting the way the euro is suggesting on its 12z run. First if there’s no phasing with the northern stream then why so amped? Second item is the HP in Ontario is strong and would shift the track eastward towards the GFS and the UKMET...it will inevitably retrograde westward but I also see no reason for the sit and spin it’s predicting either...

[wolfie09]

It takes about 4 days but we finally see snow on the European lol That's even borderline (lake effect), just another solution..

[wolfie09]

The european does phase just to early lol

If timing is off (which most likely it is) then this will obviously change. 

[TugHillMatt]

We need to get rid of that bloody SE Ridging!

[wolfie09]

We need that southern vort to speed  up or northern energy to slow down, allowing the southern system to get more out front before getting"captured"..

[BuffaloWeather]

EPS is farther east. Similar to GFS. 

[BuffaloWeather]

We should be using the GEFS and EPS for next few days. OP should only be used in days 1-3 before the storm IMO. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

ABC network out of PA..

In the last ten winters, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been largely positive, which means winds over the Northern Atlantic blow faster, keeping most of the cold air north of our region. It appears the NAO will be largely positive again this winter, along with the Arctic Oscillation, which suggests the Polar Vortex will remain well north of our region as well. The one exception could be late December through January, where previous years with similar conditions suggest we’ll see an uptick in snow and cold outbreaks.

Putting it all together, it does look like we are heading into another mild winter. The average temperature is going to be anywhere between two and four degrees above normal.  If you are a winter lover like us, there still is that chance of getting some of that cold, and our best chances for snow? That’s going to be happening during the month of January. January looks to be the snowiest month this season, which is pretty close to climatology.

You can lock above normal temps for nearly every winter going forward. I mean how many negative winters have we had in the last 20 years 2-3? It's just the new norm with global warming. 

[wolfie09]

Wpc Day 6-7 as of now..

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Lots of good hits in there

[wolfie09]

An upper level trough will likely become a closed low near the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes early next week. Model guidance continues to
suggest a deepening area of low pressure to move north parallel to
the Appalachians Monday into Tuesday. There remains uncertainty
where the track of the closed low will take the surface low however
most solutions drive a strong low-level jet across the region
resulting in widespread steady rain to move across Western NY and
North Central NY. This may result in rainfall amounts of 1 inch+
Monday into Tuesday.

The closed low will likely rotate across the Great Lakes or
Northeast into Tuesday resulting in a period of unsettled weather.
Colder air will eventually move into the region towards mid-week
however any snow showers and accumulating snow will depend on the
location of the surface low which is uncertain at this time.

High temperatures will fall through mid-week with highs in the upper
40s to low 50s Monday falling to the upper 30s to low 40s by
Wednesday. Low temperatures will follow the same trend with lows in
the mid to upper 30s Monday night to the 20s Wednesday night.

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You can lock above normal temps for nearly every winter going forward. I mean how many negative winters have we had in the last 20 years 2-3? It's just the new norm with global warming. 

I agree with this.  When you have a 1 million squares miles less of arctic ice, there will be very tangible effects.  The amount of thermal mass stored in a million square miles of ice is nearly unimaginable...and its all gone.  Never to return.  There is no such thing as a normal or regular winter as we accelerate into this phase of global warming, each year will likely be progressively warmer.  We may still catch some periods of intense snow and cold, but they will almost certainly be transient and few and far between. 

For most people in our area, this is great news.  For us, this sucks...time for a new hobby? 

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I agree with this.  When you have a 1 million squares miles less of arctic ice, there will be very tangible effects.  The amount of thermal mass stored in a million square miles of ice is nearly unimaginable...and its all gone.  Never to return.  There is no such thing as a normal or regular winter as we accelerate into this phase of global warming, each year will likely be progressively warmer.  We may still catch some periods of intense snow and cold, but they will almost certainly be transient and few and far between. 

For most people in our area, this is great news.  For us, this sucks...time for a new hobby? 

Such as Feb 2015, by far the coldest month in Buffalos history. These types of months are the rare exceptions to the rule. As long as we get snow I'm fine. We've been right around average for snowfall last 30 years, even a small increase actually.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

[BuffaloWeather]