rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 3k came in a bit NW. Nice hit for IAG/Buf and Orleans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 12k was a little west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Then you have the rgem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I was in 7th grade. Got stuck at school. Was so much fun. We played sports in the gym all night. I bet there were several teachers huddling in corners crying all night...but you didn't notice. You were having a blast. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Then you have the rgem lol I think BUF may be good for 1-2 inches before the flip to rain, IAG may be able to squeeze out 3-4 inches before the warm air makes it that far north. One of those rare storms you’d rather be in Youngstown/Lewiston than anywhere else in WNY haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 NAM is off to a good start this winter. That model keeps getting worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 We’re going to get NAMed so hard. Inch of slop tops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 The HRWs actually look pretty good for the lake coastal plain. I know to definitely take that with a grain of salt though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The HRWs actually look pretty good for the lake coastal plain. I know to definitely take that with a grain of salt though Was just looking at those... 50 miles East or West... small jackpot zone strip... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 HRRR is way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 This November has had some pretty big swings. Snow and 32 degrees one day, 65 degrees 36 hours later, and then more snow possible 36 hours after that. For sure, it has been biased much warmer, but we get those very brief little shots of cold and snow. I guess that's better than having a complete shutout for weeks and weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Not much difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 GfS has a similar track as the high rez Canadian and so does the rgem, icon, euro etc lol You know where this one is going, right over Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GfS has a similar track as the high rez Canadian and so does the rgem, icon, euro etc lol You know where this one is going, right over Ontario.. Getting us warmed up for months and months of cutters? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Typical NAM bias. We all saw it coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Typical NAM bias. We all saw it coming Here it is. We all called it. 06z 3k NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Hey, what’s 130 miles between friends? I’d be lying if I told ya it didn’t hurt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Pretty common La Niña track. Hope we don’t lock in. It’s my least favorite track. Even after the wind is SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Gfs is pretty active at least lol Nails the southern tier with 2 or 3 storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 I'm heading back to the PNW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Going to be one of those years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Going to be one of those years.. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Here’s the deal. This would be a once in a lifetime storm. You NEVER see them and yet they pop up on the GFS 300+ ALL the freaking time. Computer forecasting is going to benefit tremendously from AI. Hopefully it will squash these ridiculous LR solutions. It just drives me nuts. They just suck right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 ^^^ LOL Gfs had another one at the end of run too, 973mb into CNY lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: ^^^ LOL Gfs had another one at the end of run too, 973mb into CNY lol -NAO??? December looks interesting. Maybe time to start new thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 Didn't realize how warm it was yesterday overall. 61/49 Average temp disparity +16 For the month AVERAGE MONTHLY: 48.9 DPTR FM NORMAL: +6.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 13 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That was a great storm. The intensity and timing really caught the metro off guard. We just got home from school in West Seneca before the band moved over us. WKBW broadcast from the next morning... Also some nice raw footage from the post storm... Incorrect factual tidbits, but great footage. Amazing to see that “ice pack” on the roads. The heavy volume of traffic compacted 2’ of snow down to the density of an ice rink in the streets... These large Lake effect snow events just have so many memories attached to them. 1995- Jumping off 2nd floor into giant pile of snow when I lived in the west side. 2000- Getting stuck at school overnight 2001- Building the biggest snow forts ever with my cousins/friends in neighborhood 2006- Went for walk with my family through neighborhood with power flashes and trees crashing all around us. 2010- My first apartment on my own, will never forget how much lightning was in that band 2014- Best storm I'll ever see. Slept about 4 hours in 5 days documenting it all on video. Walking around in the heart of that band was something I'll never forget. Got a week off of work paid as well. This is what its all about. I'm ready for the next one. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Didn't realize how warm it was yesterday overall. 61/49 Average temp disparity +16 For the month AVERAGE MONTHLY: 48.9 DPTR FM NORMAL: +6.3 In the ridiculous tropics of Upstate New York, Syracuse made it up to at least 66 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 Is that a +PNA/-NAO combo I see? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Is that a +PNA/-NAO combo I see? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Euro shows some promise in earlier frames as well. Our next real window is shaping up somewhat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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